The government of Indonesia revised down its forecast for economic growth in 2017 to the range of 5.3 - 5.9 percent (y/y). On Friday (20/05) Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro informed parliament about the change in the growth outlook (related to the 2017 State Budget). Initially, the government projected Indonesia's 2017 GDP growth in the range of 5.5 - 5.9 percent (y/y). Brodjonegoro did not explain, however, why the government decided to revise down its GDP growth forecast in the 2017 State Budget.

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Slowly but surely Indonesia is obtaining the investment grade rating from the world's three key credit rating agencies. Fitch Ratings already reinstated Indonesia's investment grade rating in 2011, a step that was followed by Moody's Investors Service in 2012. Although Standard & Poor's (S&P) has been more careful, there emerged speculation that S&P will assign the investment grade status to Indonesia soon (perhaps in June 2016). Last week, a S&P team visited Indonesia - to study the country's latest policy reforms and developments - and signaled that its assessment is positive.

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Efforts to raise people's purchasing power and household consumption in Indonesia will be key to push for higher economic growth in 2016. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 4.92 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2016. Although this result failed to meet analysts' projections (which generally stood around 5 percent y/y), it was higher than the 4.73 percent (y/y) economic growth pace that was posted in the same quarter one year earlier.

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According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) the unemployment rate of Indonesia fell to 5.5 percent of the nation's labor force, or 7.02 million people in absolute terms, in February 2016 (compared to an unemployment rate of 5.81 percent one year earlier). The data from BPS also indicate that Indonesia's workforce - remarkably - shrank from 128.3 million in February 2015 to 127.8 million people in February 2016 particularly due to a decline in workers in the agriculture sector.

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Economic growth of Indonesia was weaker-than-estimated in the first quarter of 2016. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released today (04/05), Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 4.92 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016. Most analysts expected to see a GDP growth pace slightly above the 5 percent (y/y) mark and therefore the publication of BPS was disappointing and raises questions whether Indonesia's economic growth can in fact accelerate significantly in 2016.

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The stock performance of Indonesian companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2016 is expected to be better than last year's performance. One of the factors that supports this assumption is Indonesia's accelerating economic growth. Most - if not all - analysts expect GDP growth to rebound from its six-year low of 4.79 percent (y/y) in 2015. Indonesia's Q4-2015 GDP growth at 5.04 percent (y/y) was already promising (supported by government spending). In 2016 a growth pace in the range of 5.0 - 5.2 percent (y/y) should be possible. Although the link is not perfect, there is a correlation between a nation's stock market and its GDP growth.

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Credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter of 2016. This weak performance is attributed to the slowdown in the country's real sector. Muliaman D. Hadad, Chairman of Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK), said credit expansion grew 10 percent (y/y) to IDR 4,084 billion (approx. USD $300 billion) in Q1-2016. However, Hadad remains optimistic that credit expansion will accelerate in the second half of the year in line with forecasts for accelerating GDP growth. This will be a better context for businesses to expand.

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On 17 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve hot topics and economic matters such as an update on GDP growth, Bank Indonesia's new benchmark monetary tool, the palm oil sector, the coal price, the trade balance, an excise tax on plastic items, and more.

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Darmin Nasution, the Chief Economics Minister of Indonesia, said economic growth of Indonesia in the first quarter of 2016 may be somewhat curtailed as the (food) harvest season has shifted from March to April and May. The harvest season is important for the economy because it causes a multiplier effect. However, government-led infrastructure investment may still be able to push Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth higher in Q1-2016 compared with the 5.04 percent (y/y) growth of Q4-2015. Nasution said he expects a Q1-2016 GDP growth rate around 5.1 - 5.2 percent (y/y).

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Despite last week's rallying oil prices, rising stocks on Wall Street and in Europe, as well as expectation of a more gradual increase in US interest rates, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) plunged 1.23 percent on Monday (11/04). Overall, the performance of Asian stock markets was mixed reflected by stock trading in the two big economies of China and Japan. Whereas Japanese stocks fell due to the stronger yen (touching a new 17-month high against the US dollar), Chinese stocks climbed on easing worries about deflationary pressures (after China's March CPI inflation remained flat at 2.3 percent y/y).

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At a special occasion at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged local banks to become more aggressive in terms of lending as credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector only reached IDR 4,782 trillion (approx. USD $349 billion) in 2017, hence growing by only a modest 8.3 percent year-on-year (y/y), thus unable to provide an optimal boost to domestic economic growth.

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Rating and Investment Information, Inc (R&I), a Japan-based provider of credit ratings, investment appraisal and information services, announced that it has upgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating from BBB- (positive outlook) to BBB (stable outlook) per 7 March 2018. Last December, Fitch Ratings had already upgraded Indonesia's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings to BBB (stable outlook), from BBB- previously.

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In full-year 2017 the Indonesian economy expanded 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y). Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday morning (05/02) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.19 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2017. These figures show a mixed picture.

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In the World Bank's January 2018 edition of its Global Economic Prospect (GEP) report, released earlier this week, Indonesia's economic growth is considered stable at 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the 2018-2020 period. Although compared to emerging peers in the Asian region, a 5.3 percent growth pace is not too impressive, the positive message from the GEP report is that - contrary to many emerging Asian peers - Indonesia is not expected to see sliding economic growth in the years ahead.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday (16/11). The seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate) was kept at 4.25 percent for a second straight month. Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it will revise its outlook for Indonesia's economic growth in full-year 2017 after the Q3-2017 GDP growth figure - released at the start of the week - was well below expectations. Previously, Bank Indonesia set its economic growth target for Indonesia in 2017 in the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent year-on-year (y/y).

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On Monday (06/11) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia's third quarter GDP data, important information that is closely followed by investors and analysts. While most analysts expect to see accelerated economic growth in the third quarter, others remain skeptical as Indonesia's gross domestic product was disappointing in the first two quarters of the year amid bleak domestic consumption.

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The Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors agreed to hold the BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate at 4.25 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility and lending facility rates at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent, respectively, effective per 20 October 2017. The decision was in line with efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability, while stimulating the domestic economic recovery.

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In its latest report, the World Bank stated that Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals are solid and have been strengthening amid the central government's eagerness to implement critical structural reforms, while investment growth rose to the highest levels since the last quarter of 2015 (mainly investment in buildings and structures).

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Growth remains strong across most of developing Asia as a result of the broad-based recovery in global trade, robust expansion in major industrial economies, and improved prospects for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This will combine to push growth in developing Asia for 2017 and 2018 above previous projections, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

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