Several analysts expect that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will raise its key interest rate (BI rate) again in the first Semester of 2014 in order to anticipate the winding down of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (quantitative easing). Currently, the BI rate is set at 7.50 percent but analysts say that the market should be prepared for a hike to 8.0 percent in the first half of 2014. Between June and November 2013, Bank Indonesia has already raised its benchmark interest rate from 5.75 to 7.50 percent.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global rating agencies, affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook. In a press release, the rating agency mentioned four key factors that led to the affirmation of the sovereign rating. These are: good policy management by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government amid external pressures, relatively high economic growth, prudent fiscal management (resulting in low public debt), and a strong banking sector (confirmed by multiple stress tests).

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Concerns about the looming end of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (known as quantitative easing or QE3) in combination with the deteriorating domestic economy of Indonesia has caused Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) to plunge 1.95 percent in the first trading session of 13 November 2013. The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.28 percent to IDR 11,600 according to Bloomberg. These developments happen one day after the decision of Indonesia's central bank to raise the BI rate to 7.50 percent.

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Moody's Investors Service, one of the big credit rating agencies, stated in its 'Credit Analysis: Indonesia' report that - despite the ongoing current account deficit (which is considered to be structural) and a relatively shallow and volatile domestic capital market (which contributes to Indonesia’s reliance on external funding) - the agency is positive about Indonesia's outlook due to its growth prospects, narrow fiscal deficits and low public debt. Indonesian government bonds are rated at Baa3, which is Moody's lowest investment-grade status.

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The government of Indonesia will release a second economic policy package at the end of October. This new package, which aims to provide attractive tax incentives to investors, is in addition to the package that was released in August 2013 when sharp rupiah depreciation and a rapidly falling stock index occurred as panic emerged after the Federal Reserve hinted at an end to its quantitative easing program. In combination with a widening current account deficit and high inflation, it resulted in large capital outflows from Indonesia.

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The government of Indonesia is busy preparing an extra package of policy responses aimed at stabilizing Indonesia's financial markets. Previously, the government had released a sort of 'rescue package' in late August after the rupiah depreciated sharply and the country's stock indices plunged. Panic had emerged due to the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. Coupled with internal issues, it resulted in robust capital outflows from Indonesia. The new package will be released in October.

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The Federal Reserve's decision not to change its quantitative easing program seems to have led to a bullish market in Asia. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 4.37 percent to 4,658.2 points after the first session on Thursday's trading day (19/09). All sectoral indices were up, with the property sector in leading position. Big cap stocks, in particular, performed well. Investors are relieved that the Fed did not alter its stimulus program. Thus, funds are expected to continue flowing to emerging markets, including Indonesia.

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Despite widespread speculation that the Federal Reserve would tone down its quantitative easing program (QE3) by approximately USD $10 to $20 billion after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (18/09), the central bank of the USA decided to continue its monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program as it downgraded its outlook for US economic growth to between 2.0 and 2.3 percent. Chairman Bernanke said that the economic context of the USA is still far from conducive to alter its strategy.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent respectively on Thursday (12/09). It is the fourth time since June that Bank Indonesia raised the interest rate. Previously, it maintained a historic low BI rate of 5.75 percent for 16 months. The increase is one of the measures taken to control inflation, stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and to ensure that the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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For the first time since April 2013, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have shown a small growth. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) stated that in late August, the foreign exchange reserves rose to USD $92.99 billion from USD $92.67 billion a month earlier. The growth was a surprise as continued capital outflows from Indonesia's financial markets was expected to translate into lower reserves. Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index fell 2.97 percent, while the rupiah fell 2.55 percent against the US dollar.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) moved wildly last week. During the first two days of the week, the index fell to 4,609.95 points, which is considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. However, on the last trading day of the week (14/06), a 3.32 percent recovery occurred. Generally, it were domestic market participants that supported the IHSG. Foreign market participants continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios. Total foreign selling totaled IDR 9 trillion (USD $910.4 million) last week.

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On Friday (14/06), the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) jumped 3.32 percent to 4,760.74 points as financial market participants were optimistic about the effects of the higher central bank interest rate that was announced the day before. Moreover, Indonesia's IHSG was supported by a green wave across Asian stock markets, which was partly due to a strong rebound in markets in the United States on Thursday (13/06). Stocks in Indonesia's banking and property sectors were the top-gainers on Friday's trading day.

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For three consecutive days, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) had to cope with significant losses. On Tuesday (11/06), the index fell 3.50 percent to 4,609.95 points, considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 3.98 trillion (USD $406.1 million) as domestic conditions in Indonesia are unstable. Moreover, investors are concerned about governments (USA and Japan) that want to slow down their stimulus programs as various economic data are showing positive outcomes.

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