In line with most Southeast Asian stock markets and currencies, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah were rather flat with a tendency to weaken slightly on Tuesday (17/02). Most investors seem to avoid trading in this short trading week (On Thursday 19 February markets will be closed due to Chinese New Year celebrations). Moreover, market participants in Indonesia are waiting for the central bank’s interest rate decision later today. Lastly, failed talks between Greece and its creditors on Monday dented sentiment across Asia.

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Benedict Bingham, Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), expects that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will remain committed to the tighter monetary policy in a bid to safeguard the country’s fiscal fundamentals amid external pressures. Apart from sluggish global economic growth, the looming interest rate hike in the USA (later this year) is expected to rock Indonesia as it will trigger capital outflows from emerging markets.

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The Indonesian government wants to limit investment opportunities in the country’s cement industry in an attempt to maintain a healthy business climate. Indonesian Industry Ministry official Harjanto said that Indonesia’s current cement production capacity is more than enough to meet domestic demand. Given that most established cement producers have expansion plans the influx of new cement producers leads to an oversupply thus reducing companies’ profit margins. The nation’s cement production capacity stands at 77 million tons per year.

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Despite further slowing economic growth in 2014 and possible rupiah depreciation ahead of higher US interest rates later this year, global ratings agency Moody’s Investor Service said that the outlook for Indonesian companies is stable in terms of foreign exchange risks. Brian Grieser, Vice President and Senior Analyst of Corporate Finance at Moody’s, believes that weak rupiah performance is manageable for most of these companies. Starting from mid-2013, Indonesia’s rupiah has depreciated significantly amid US monetary tightening.

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The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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The latest Consumer Confidence Survey released by Indonesia’s central bank indicated that Indonesian consumers were more optimistic in January 2015 (compared to the previous month) on the back of recent fuel price cuts. The index, based on a total of 4,600 households across 18 major Indonesian cities, climbed to 120.2 points in January, up from 116.5 in the preceding month (a score above 100 signals consumer optimism). In December the index had declined due to higher administered fuel prices.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia were slightly down in 2014 compared to the previous year. Amid the slowing economy (Indonesia’s GDP growth may have fallen from 5.8 percent in 2013 to 5.1 percent in 2014) and political uncertainty (triggered by the fragmented results of the country’s legislative and presidential elections) car sales totaled 1.21 million units in 2014, down 1.8 percent from 1.23 million sold vehicles in 2013, according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo).

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On 18 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as presentations at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, reports from the World Bank, Deutsche Bank, Moody’s and the ADB on the Indonesian economy, Bank Indonesia’s interest rate, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent at its Board of Governors’ Meeting on Thursday (15/01). The country’s Lending Facility and Deposit Facility were maintained at 8.00 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. According to the bank this interest rate environment is sufficient to push inflation, which has accelerated to 8.36 percent year-on-year (y/y) in December due to fuel subsidy reforms, back towards its target of 3 to 5 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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In terms of market capitalization, the largest listed company on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is now Bank Central Asia (BCA). BCA, Indonesia’s second largest bank by assets, managed to surpass HM Sampoerna and Astra International at the end of 2014 with a value of IDR 320 trillion (USD $26.6 billion), or 6.1 percent of total market capitalization of the IDX (IDR 5,228 trillion). Despite tougher conditions in Indonesia’s financial sector (amid a higher interest rate environment) shares of BCA rose 36.7 percent in 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its interest rate environment unchanged at the January 2017 policy meeting on Thursday (19/01). The benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day RR Rate) was kept at 4.75 percent, while the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility rates were maintained at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. The decisions of Bank Indonesia are in line with analysts' forecasts. Due to risks of capital outflows Indonesia's central bank had few room to ease monetary policy.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the December 2016 policy meeting, nearly a day after the US Federal Reserve decided to raise its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to the range 0.50 - 0.75 percent. Moves of both central banks were expected. Monetary tightening in the USA triggers capital outflows from emerging markets (the Indonesian rupiah depreciated around 0.70 percent against the US dollar on Thursday). Therefore, Bank Indonesia had little room to seek monetary easing.

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The Bank of Indonesia recently resorted to a sudden cut in interest rate (by 25 bps to 4.75 percent) at its 20th October 2016 meeting. This followed a 25 bps reduction in September and thus this is the sixth time this year that the Indonesian central bank has elected to loosen monetary policy.

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In line with expectations Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark reference rate - the BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate - at 4.75 percent at Thursday's policy meeting (17/11). This decision was made amid the high degree of uncertainty in global financial markets (triggered by the 2016 US presidential election) and stable domestic conditions (low inflation and an improving current account deficit). The high degree of volatility does cause major pressures on the rupiah and therefore Bank Indonesia will continue to stabilize exchange rates through intervention in markets.

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Bank Indonesia surprised markets. On Thursday (20/10) the central bank of Southeast Asia's largest economy cut its benchmark interest rate - the BI 7-day reverse repo rate - by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent. Meanwhile, both the deposit facility and lending facility were also cut by 25 basis points to 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Perhaps it was Bank Indonesia's present to Indonesian President Joko Widodo for the two-year anniversary of his government. A lower interest rate climate should encourage macroeconomic expansion.

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On September 22, 2016, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its BI seven-day repo rate from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent, and this has changed parts of the long-term outlook for investors. Bank Indonesia also reduced its lending rate to 5.75 percent (from previous 5.50 percent), and the deposit rate to 4.50 percent (from previous 4.75 percent previously). This is significant because it shows that lending rates and interest rates have dropped to multi-year lows with the current policy changes.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has made some important decisions under the current Governor Agus Martowardojo. Here, Bank Indonesia has been directed toward achieving the responsibility of making financial decisions that promote consumer price stability over the long-term. This has resulted in widespread gains in the rupiah against a basket of world currencies -- including the US dollar. But recent rate cuts now have the potential to reverse these broader trends.

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The central bank of Indonesia kept the BI seven-day reverse repo rate (7-day RR Rate) at 5.25 percent after its two-day August policy meeting (18-19 august 2016). At this policy meeting Bank Indonesia adopted the 7-day RR Rate as the nation's new benchmark monetary tool, replacing the BI rate that failed to influence markets significantly: despite the BI Rate having been cut from 7.50 percent to 6.50 percent so far this year, Indonesia's lending rates did not drop accordingly.

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This week the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) as the nation's new benchmark monetary tool at the August policy meeting (18/19 August), thus replacing the existing BI rate that is considered too weak to have an immediate and significant impact on Indonesia's borrowing costs and market liquidity. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo informed that the central bank has been holding road shows to financial centers across the nation (and abroad) to provide detailed information about the new benchmark.

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At its latest monthly policy meeting the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate regime unchanged with the benchmark BI rate at 6.50 percent (this month the bank is set to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate - reverse repo - as the new benchmark rate). Bank Indonesia's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was a surprise move given that the nation's inflation is low, the rupiah is strengthening, but overall economic growth has remained sluggish. This context would actually justify a moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

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