Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is expected to decline 5 percent (y/y) to 29.6 million tons from a realization of 31.2 million tons in the preceding year. At the start of the year the Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia targeted CPO output around 31-32 million tons in full-year 2016. However, lower-than-targeted CPO production is the result of a looming strong La Nina weather phenomenon (which brings wetter-than-usual conditions to Southeast Asia) and the strong El Nino earlier this year (bringer droughts to Southeast Asia).

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An official at Indonesia's Trade Ministry said Southeast Asia's largest economy is to scrap the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) again. In July 2016 the export tax will be lowered to zero, from USD $3 per ton in the preceding month, due to sliding palm oil prices. The Indonesian government expects palm oil prices to fall in July because after the Ramadan month and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations are finished demand for the edible is set to decline.

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Palm oil shipments from Indonesia surged 20 percent month-on-month to 2.09 million tons in April 2016 (from 1.74 million tons in the preceding month) according to the latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki). Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of Gapki, said Indonesia's palm oil exports are supported by declining edible oil output in several countries. High rainfall in Argentina and Brazil disturbed local soy bean harvests, while the US soybean harvest is weak as well. Furthermore, rapeseed harvests in China, India and the European Union are weak too, hence boosting demand for CPO.

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The Indonesian Oil Palm Smallholders Association (Apkasindo) requests the government to support the replanting of 2.5 million hectares of oil palm plantations owned by smallholder farmers. Through Minister of Agriculture Regulation No.18/2016 on Guidelines for the Rejuvenation of Oil Palm Plantations, the government is lawfully forced to support smallholder farmers regarding the rejuvenation of oil palm trees. To finance this program, the government takes funds from the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund (BPDP-KS). The BPDP-KS collects funds from the export levies for palm oil products.

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For the first time since October 2014, Indonesia's palm oil exporters will have to pay an export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) shipments as the government's reference CPO price was set at USD $754.10 per ton in May (the level of USD $750 per ton separates taxable from non-taxable shipments). The Indonesian government announced that it will impose a USD $3 per ton tax on CPO exports in May 2016. Palm oil is the key foreign exchange earner for Indonesia in terms of non-mining export products. The country is the world's largest producer and exporter of CPO, followed by Malaysia.

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The stock performance of Indonesian companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2016 is expected to be better than last year's performance. One of the factors that supports this assumption is Indonesia's accelerating economic growth. Most - if not all - analysts expect GDP growth to rebound from its six-year low of 4.79 percent (y/y) in 2015. Indonesia's Q4-2015 GDP growth at 5.04 percent (y/y) was already promising (supported by government spending). In 2016 a growth pace in the range of 5.0 - 5.2 percent (y/y) should be possible. Although the link is not perfect, there is a correlation between a nation's stock market and its GDP growth.

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Bayu Krisnamurthi, President Director of the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund (BPDP-KS), said total exports of palm oil and its derivatives in the first quarter of 2016 reached 7.42 million tons. It is interesting to note that 87.2 percent of this total figure (or 6.47 million tons) comprises processed palm oil products, while the remainder consists of crude palm oil (CPO), implying that the downstreaming of the palm oil sector is developing smoothly. Krisnamurthi says the imposition of export levies on CPO has managed to encourage the development of downstream industries in the nation's palm oil sector.

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Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to decline to around 32.1 million tons in 2016 from 32.5 million tons in the preceding year. This decline, which would be the first (full calendar year) drop in Indonesia's palm oil output since 1998, is caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes dry weather in Southeast Asia hence curtailing palm oil fruit yields. CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer and exporter (after Indonesia), has also been affected.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price continues to rise supported by the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes a dry spell in Southeast Asia, home to the world's largest palm oil plantations. As a result, CPO inventories in Malaysia may have declined to 2.11 million tons, an 11-month low in February 2016. Meanwhile, Singapore-based agribusiness trader Olam International Ltd said CPO stocks will decline to the range of 1.5 - 2.0 million tons in the second quarter of 2016. Obstacles to higher CPO prices are Malaysia's strengthening ringgit (which curtails demand for Malaysian palm oil) and attractive prices of soybean oil.

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The value of Indonesia's exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives plunged 11.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.6 billion in 2015 from USD $21.1 billion in the preceding year. However, in terms of volume, Indonesian exports of CPO and its derivatives actually rose 21.7 percent to 26.4 million tons. The higher volume but lower earnings are explained by the palm oil price. Palm oil traded at an average of USD $614.20 per ton in 2015, down 24.9 percent (y/y) from an average price of USD $818.20 per ton in 2014.

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Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.

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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

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Several negative sentiments are putting pressure on the crude palm oil (CPO) price in the first week of March 2018. These sentiments are expected to continue pushing downward pressure on the CPO price in the remainder of this week. On Monday (05/03) the CPO price on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (May 2018 shipments) fell 0.28 percent to 2,467 ringgit per metric ton. Compared to one week earlier, the price has now declined 2.91 percent.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to strengthen in the first quarter of 2018 due to the impact of the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand in the traditional big CPO importing countries. This is good news for stakeholders in the palm oil industry as the price has been sliding around 16 percent so far this year (toward the 2,700 Malaysian ringgit per ton level).

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Indonesia's largest supplier of crude palm oil (CPO), Astra Agro Lestari, is expected to see improving corporate earnings in the years ahead on the back of the rising CPO price and expectation of the company's climbing CPO production volume. The year 2016 was a good year for Astra Agro Lestari as it reported a 224.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) jump in net profit and a 7.6 percent (y/y) increase in sales, led by sales of CPO and derivative products. This was a great recovery from the preceding year. CPO and derivative products account for more than 86 percent of the company's total sales.

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The higher crude palm oil (CPO) price will have a positive impact on the corporate earnings of Indonesian CPO producers, including Sampoerna Agro. Benchmark palm oil futures for March 2017 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were at 3,161 ringgit (approx. USD $706) per ton at the end of last week, near a four and a half year high. However, not all analysts advise investors to purchase shares of Sampoerna Agro, a company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price touched its highest level so far this year. On Tuesday (20/09) palm oil futures (December delivery) - traded on the Kuala Lumpur exchange - ended the day at 2,690 ringgit (approx. USD $651 per metric ton). Palm oil prices are rising as CPO production in Indonesia and Malaysia will remain subdued this year due to droughts that were brought by the El Nino weather phenomenon earlier in 2016, while there is expectation of a rather wet season later this year due to the La Nina weather phenomenon.

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Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose 9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 2.29 million tons in February 2016 on the back of growing CPO demand in Africa, Bangladesh, India and the European Union. Indonesia's February CPO export volume was better than estimated previously. Analysts had expected a figure below 2 million tons. Combined, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 4.39 million tons in the first two months of 2016, up 22 percent (y/y) from the 3.59 million tons of CPO that Indonesia exported in the same period one year earlier.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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Agribusiness company Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers, is expected to show a better performance in 2016 on an expected rise in palm oil prices. Although palm oil futures currently feel the negative effects of tumbling global crude oil prices, these futures are estimated to have risen to about 2,700 ringgit per ton by May 2016 from around 2,385 (approx. USD $540)  per ton currently.

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