Indonesia's controversial Mining Law No.4/2009, which puts a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, is not expected to be implemented in full force on 12 January 2014 as the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources now proposes more flexibility for miners. Sukhyar, General Director of Coal and Minerals at the Ministry, said that the proposal would imply a continuation of the export of concentrate or minerals that have been processed to a certain degree until 2017.

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Indonesia's state news agency Antara reported that the government may review its Mining Law No.4/2009 which stipulates a ban on the export of raw minerals. This controversial new law, through which the government aims to raise more value-added revenues, caused a shockwave across Indonesia's mining sector because a significant amount of mineral exports constitute unprocessed ones. The law, which is set to be implemented on 12 January 2014, implies that minerals need to be processed domestically first before exports are allowed.

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Although the ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is set to start on 12 January 2014, is expected to result in a direct revenue loss of USD $4 billion in 2014 due to a decline in mineral exports, Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro believes that from 2016 onward a trade surplus can be recorded in Indonesia's minerals sector. In 2014, Indonesia's minerals sector may show a USD $10 billion trade deficit. But exports of processed minerals may grow from USD $4.9 billion in 2013 to USD $9 billion in 2015.

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Today (08/12), the latest edition of our newsletter was published. Our newsletter contains the most important economic, political and social news stories from Indonesia that were reported on in the last seven days. This is of especial importance for those that engage in business in Indonesia or those that are interested to invest in Southeast Asia's largest economy as it will provide a thorough update about Indonesia's macroeconomy. Occasionally, our newsletter also contain event announcements.

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On Wednesday (15/01), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.37 percent to IDR 12,095 per US dollar at 14:15 local Jakarta time. Global markets are again in anticipation of the Federal Reserve tapering issue after the Fed officials of Philadelphia and Dallas stated that they support an as-soon-as-possible winding down of the US stimulus program after the release of strong US retail data. The tapering will make it very hard for emerging currencies to gain against the US dollar. At 28-29 January, the Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting.

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On Sunday (12/01), one of the most important new laws in the recent history of Indonesia came in force. Mining Law Nr.4/2009, which prohibits the export of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, was implemented. However, it was not implemented in its original form. The president of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, signed a last-minute regulation which softens the impact of the new law by allowing mining companies to continue exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead and iron ore concentrate until 2017.

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Several factors can be mentioned that may explain the fall of the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, abbreviated as IHSG) on Monday's trading day (06/01). These include a sell off of mining stocks (which subsequently negatively affected agricultural stocks) because of the approaching implementation of the ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, the continuing depreciating rupiah exchange rate, the impact of falling stock indices across Asia, and the higher price of 12 kilogram-cylinders of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

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Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is scheduled to take effect on 12 January 2014, is expected to lead to a temporary slowdown of Indonesia's total exports and thus will put more pressure on the country's current account deficit. Despite two consecutive months with trade surpluses (October and November 2013), Indonesia's wide current account deficit is still a concern to investors as well as the government although the deficit has shown an easing trend in recent quarters.

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After having reported yesterday (26/12) that Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, stipulated in Mining Law No.4/2009 (which is set to become in force from 12 January 2014), may be delayed, more and more signs are pointing towards a postponement of this law. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jero Wacik, said that the government is considering to delay the implementation of the law by two or three years as the ban will cause increased unemployment and the cease of mining operations.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its downward trend on Wednesday (18/12). Both Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) and Bloomberg Dollar Index indicated a depreciating rupiah against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR was set at IDR 12,151 per US dollar, a 0.39 percent fall from yesterday (17/12), while in the Bloomberg Dollar Index the currency depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,168 per US dollar at 16:55 in the afternoon, local Jakarta time.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.

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Starting from 12 January 2014, the export of all mineral-ores are banned in Indonesia. This controversial new policy, stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (on Minerals and Coal Mining), was agreed upon by the nine fractions in Commission VII of the Indonesian parliament (DPR). Through this new law, the government intends to increase the value of exports while reducing dependence on raw exports and thus becoming less vulnerable to price downswings on the global commodities market.

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