Indonesia's controversial Mining Law No.4/2009, which puts a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, is not expected to be implemented in full force on 12 January 2014 as the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources now proposes more flexibility for miners. Sukhyar, General Director of Coal and Minerals at the Ministry, said that the proposal would imply a continuation of the export of concentrate or minerals that have been processed to a certain degree until 2017.

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Indonesia's state news agency Antara reported that the government may review its Mining Law No.4/2009 which stipulates a ban on the export of raw minerals. This controversial new law, through which the government aims to raise more value-added revenues, caused a shockwave across Indonesia's mining sector because a significant amount of mineral exports constitute unprocessed ones. The law, which is set to be implemented on 12 January 2014, implies that minerals need to be processed domestically first before exports are allowed.

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Although the ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is set to start on 12 January 2014, is expected to result in a direct revenue loss of USD $4 billion in 2014 due to a decline in mineral exports, Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro believes that from 2016 onward a trade surplus can be recorded in Indonesia's minerals sector. In 2014, Indonesia's minerals sector may show a USD $10 billion trade deficit. But exports of processed minerals may grow from USD $4.9 billion in 2013 to USD $9 billion in 2015.

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Today (08/12), the latest edition of our newsletter was published. Our newsletter contains the most important economic, political and social news stories from Indonesia that were reported on in the last seven days. This is of especial importance for those that engage in business in Indonesia or those that are interested to invest in Southeast Asia's largest economy as it will provide a thorough update about Indonesia's macroeconomy. Occasionally, our newsletter also contain event announcements.

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The dispute between the Indonesian government and mining giant Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) over the recently implemented ban on the export of unprocessed copper, gold, nickel, bauxite and iron is heading for a climax. In Indonesian media, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was quoted saying “NNT has undermined the sense of justice of the Indonesian people” and pronounced his disappointment of NNT’s reluctance to respect the sovereignty of the state. Previously, the government said it may revoke mining permits of NNT.

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Whether Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) will file for international arbitration over a six-month old export dispute with the Indonesian government remains unclear. Although many analysts would like to see international arbitration over this case, such a step would imply several risks for the copper miner (which is for 56 percent owned by US-based Newmont Mining Corporation and Japan’s Nusa Tenggara Mining Corporation). The source of the dispute is Indonesia’s recently-introduced ban on exports of ore concentrates.

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Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Jero Wacik regrets to see Newmont Nusa Tenggara, one of Indonesia largest copper miners, file for international arbitration due to Indonesia’s export ban stipulated by Law 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (Minerba). This new law includes the ban on exports of ore concentrates from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Instead, Indonesian miners are required to process the minerals domestically first. The ban was implemented on 12 January 2014.

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Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), one of Indonesia’s largest copper miners, said on Thursday (05/06) that it sees no other option than to declare a force majeure at its Batu Hijau copper mine in Sumbawa (West Nusa Tenggara) due to the export tax dispute with the Indonesian government. President Director of NNT Martiono Hadianto also informed the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources that 80 percent of the company’s workers will be put on leave with reduced salaries.

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After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced on Monday (05/05) that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.21 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2014 (considerably below analysts' projections of around 5.6 percent), concerns have risen about the country's economic expansion for the remainder of the year. The government of Indonesia targets a GDP growth rate of between 5.8 and 6.0 percent (yoy). However, several international institutions do not agree with this optimistic target.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (05/05) that the economy of Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - grew at a much slower pace in the first quarter of 2014 than had been expected by analysts. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 5.21 percent (year-on-year) in Q1-2014, significantly down from the 6.03 percentage growth (yoy) that was recorded in Q1-2013. Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed to 5.13 percent from 5.9 percent in the same period last year.

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ICRA Indonesia released an analysis of the economic impact of the ban on export of raw minerals. The ban - stipulated by the new 2009 Mining Law - became effective per 12 January 2014 (although in a milder form as some mineral ore exports are allowed under specific terms) and aims at boosting domestic processing. However, it led to great concern among domestic and foreign stakeholders as its implications on the economy of Indonesia - a global leader in exports of mineral resources - were unknown.

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Freeport Indonesia stated that the company's production of copper concentrate plunged since the Indonesian government implemented the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals on 12 January 2014. Currently, Freeport only produces to supply Smelting Gresik, Indonesia's first copper smelter and refinery. As such, Freeport only operates at 45 percent of production capacity regarding copper concentrate. According to Freeport Indonesia's spokeswoman Daisy Primayanti, production of copper concentrate fell to 3,150 tons per day.

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Today (18/03), the World Bank released the March 2014 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled Investment in Flux. The report discusses key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these developments in a longer-term and global context. Secondly, it provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, as well as analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. Click here for further information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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