Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.

Today's Headlines Commodities

  • Some Thoughts on the Performance of Indonesia's Stock Market in 2016

    The stock performance of Indonesian companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2016 is expected to be better than last year's performance. One of the factors that supports this assumption is Indonesia's accelerating economic growth. Most - if not all - analysts expect GDP growth to rebound from its six-year low of 4.79 percent (y/y) in 2015. Indonesia's Q4-2015 GDP growth at 5.04 percent (y/y) was already promising (supported by government spending). In 2016 a growth pace in the range of 5.0 - 5.2 percent (y/y) should be possible. Although the link is not perfect, there is a correlation between a nation's stock market and its GDP growth.

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  • Indonesia Stock Market & Rupiah Update: Down on External Pressure

    Asian stocks did not have a good start of the week. Most Asian stocks fell on Monday (25/04) in line with retreating oil prices, concerns that the US Federal Reserve may be hinting at further monetary tightening in its upcoming policy meeting, as well as concerns about China's debt and commodities markets. It all resulted in curbed demand for higher-yielding yet riskier Asian assets. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.73 percent to 4,878.86 points, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.04 percent to IDR 13,199 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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  • 32 Indonesian Companies Fined, Found Guilty of Forming Beef Cartel

    Indonesia's Business Competition Supervisory Commission (KPPU) penalized 32 Indonesian cattle importer and beef feedlot companies with a combined IDR 107 billion (approx. USD $8.1 million) in fines on grounds of the practice of unfair competition. These 32 companies have been found guilty of forming a cartel with the aim of controlling local beef prices, curtailing beef imports, and curtailing the distribution of beef at the expense of the Indonesian consumer, particularly in the Greater Jakarta area.

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  • Trade Balance Indonesia: $490 Million Surplus in March 2016

    Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced today that the nation's trade balance posted a USD $490 million trade surplus in March 2016. In line with analysts' forecasts, Indonesia's March trade surplus shrank considerably from a USD $1.1 billion surplus one month earlier. Indonesia's March exports reached a total of USD $11.79 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $11.30 billion. Although the nation's exports and imports rose compared to the preceding month, there remains ongoing concern about the slumping export/import figures on a year-on-year basis.

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  • Coal Mining in Indonesia: Limited Reason for Optimism

    Having been the center of negative attention for quite some years now, Indonesia's coal mining sector has given some room for speculation that conditions will improve. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and mostly based on the average of global coal prices, rose 1.3 percent (m/m) to USD $51.62 per ton in March 2016. Although it is much too early to start speculating about a sustained rebound, the increase is remarkable as it is the first time in exactly one year that the HBA manages to rise.

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  • World Bank Cuts Forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP Growth to 5.1%

    In its March 2016 Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "Private Investment is Essential", the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) from an earlier estimate of 5.3 percent (y/y). This downward revision was made due to weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, further weakening commodity prices, and limitations to Indonesian government spending brought about by a looming shortfall in tax revenue.

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  • New Mining Law Indonesia: Full Mineral Ore Export Ban Delayed Again?

    By September 2016 the Indonesian government plans to have revised regulations regarding exports of mineral ore, part of Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law). Per January 2014 mineral ore exports from Indonesia should have been banned altogether as the government aims to boost domestic smelter development and reduce the country's dependence on raw material exports. However, a last-minute regulation, signed in January 2014, softened this ban and allowed exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead, and iron ore concentrates until 2017. Now the government may decide for a two-year delay up to 2019.

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  • Trade Indonesia: Exports Resource-Rich East Kalimantan Plunge

    Indonesia's commodity-rich East Kalimantan is one of the worst affected Indonesian provinces in terms of global trade and weak commodity prices. East Kalimantan's export performance is heavily dependent on prices of oil, natural gas and coal. In 2015 the total value of East Kalimantan's exports plunged 30.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.3 billion from USD $26.35 billion in the preceding year. Since 2011 the province's exports have posted a consecutive annual decline in line with the declining trend of commodity prices.

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  • Indonesia May Cancel Controversial Mineral Ore Export Ban

    The Indonesian government seems to abandon or delay its policy of banning mineral ore exports from 2017 onward. In January 2014 the ban on exports of raw minerals, part of the 2009 Mining Law, came into effect. However, due to the lack of domestic processing facilities the government allowed the resumption of certain concentrate exports (such as copper concentrate) provided the miner would be committed to the construction of smelting facilities, and pay higher taxes and royalties. The export ban was highly controversial as it conflicted with existing contracts and therefore caused outrage in Indonesia's mining industry.

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  • Sales of Trucks in Indonesia Continued to Decline in January

    Sales of trucks in Indonesia fell 30.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5,555 units in January 2016 from 7,918 units in the same month one year earlier. This weaker sales figure indicates that the market for trucks in Indonesia remains subdued. According to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), sales of all types of trucks fell with the exception of heavy trucks. Heavy trucks, used for mining, agriculture and infrastructure development, rose slightly to 518 units in January 2016.

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Latest Columns Commodities

  • Indonesian Rupiah & Stocks Fall on Economic Concerns and Oil Price

    The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.

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  • Analysis of Indonesia’s Dec Inflation and Nov Trade Balance

    Indonesia’s inflation pace accelerated in December 2014, exceeding estimations of analysts and Indonesia’s central bank. December inflation, 2.46 percent (m/m) or 8.36 percent (y/y), accelerated due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices (introduced in November) and volatile food prices (fluctuating rice and chili prices at the year-end). Other factors that contributed to high inflation in 2014 were higher electricity tariffs for households and industries, the higher price of 12 kg LPG, and an airfare adjustment.

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  • Malaysia Confirms Duty Free Palm Oil Exports in Jan; Indonesia to Follow?

    Malaysia, the world’s second-largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer and exporter, will continue its duty-free export tariff for CPO in January 2015 according to information from the Malaysian customs department. Starting from September 2014 Malaysian authorities have implemented a duty-free CPO export policy in an effort to boost global demand and support international CPO prices (which have fallen nearly 20 percent this year). Indonesia, which has seen duty-free CPO shipments since October 2014, is expected to follow suit.

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  • Rubber Update: Indonesia, Thailand & Malaysia Make New Policies

    Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s three largest rubber producing countries (accounting for about 70 percent of total global natural rubber output), have agreed to avoid excessive natural rubber supply on the international market by limiting their rubber exports. The countries also agree to curb new rubber plantation development as well as to spur domestic rubber consumption in each country. This statement was read out by Douglas Uggah Embas, Plantation Industries Minister of Malaysia, in Kuala Lumpur today (20/11).

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  • Palm Oil Update Indonesia: Indonesian CPO Reserves and Biodiesel

    Reserves of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia may have declined for a second straight month in October on the back of drought and an increase in exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The delayed impact of drought (which even managed to dry up several rivers in West Kalimantan in October) limited production of CPO in recent weeks. Meanwhile, exports have increased after Indonesia and Malaysia - the world’s two top palm oil producers - scrapped export taxes to boost demand for this commodity.

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  • Global Concern: Economy of China Slows to 7.3% in Q3-2014

    Economic expansion of China slowed to a growth pace of 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, the slowest pace in five years. Although China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result was better than most analysts’ projections of 7.2 percent, Chinese policy makers will face difficulties to achieve its 7.5 percent annual growth target for full-year 2014. Being one of the most important trading partners of Indonesia, slowing economic growth of China has a major impact on the export performance of Indonesia.

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  • Agriculture in Indonesia: Update on Rice and Coffee Production

    Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.

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  • Finance Minister Chatib Basri on Indonesia’s Economic Fundamentals

    Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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  • Narendra Modi’s Reforms: India at the Basis of a New Commodities Boom?

    Prestigious Hong Kong-based HSBC Bank claims that a new commodity boom may appear if India will boost investments in infrastructure and housing. Chances of increased spending in India have grown considerably after reform-minded Narendra Modi posted a victory in the May 2014 election. Economists at the HSBC Bank say that this may give rise to a new prolonged commodities boom as had occurred in the 2000s which - to a large extent - was triggered by accelerated economic growth in emerging economies, particularly China.

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  • Indonesia Financial Update: Analysis June Inflation and May Trade Balance

    Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.

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