Sharp Improvements in Indonesia’s Balance of Payments & Current Account Balance
Over the past decade or so many analysts – including us – have pointed out that the structural deficit in Indonesia’s current account balance is a serious weakness.
Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
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Over the past decade or so many analysts – including us – have pointed out that the structural deficit in Indonesia’s current account balance is a serious weakness.
Indonesia’s October 2021 export performance was impressive. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), Indonesia exported USD $22.03 billion worth of goods in October 2021, thereby setting a new all-time record high.
Indonesia’s August 2021 trade balance was quite spectacular with the value of the country’s exports totaling USD $21.42 billion, the highest export figure in ten years.
As expected, the trade balance of Indonesia showed a widening surplus in July 2021. According to the latest data that were released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), the country’s trade surplus reached USD $2.59 billion in July 2021, nearly doubling from the trade surplus one month earlier.
Before we delve into Indonesia’s June 2021 trade statistics, we first take a quick look at Indonesia’s full-year 2020 trade performance as Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released its annual ‘Indonesian Foreign Trade Statistics – 2020’ report in the first week of July 2021.
While Indonesia Investments predicted the decline in imports into Indonesia in May 2021 – after Ramadan and Idul Fitri momentum had passed – we were surprised to see a significant drop in the country’s exports that same month.
On 5 May 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), released the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the first quarter of 2021. As expected, the economic recession persisted into Q1-2021 for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Although the overall trade balance of Indonesia in March 2021 showed the smallest surplus for the country in nine months – with a USD $1.57 billion surplus in March 2021 – this is probably something that goes unnoticed considering both the export and import performance of Indonesia were quite impressive in March 2021.
Last month we were still a bit pessimistic about Indonesia’s trade performance, with bleak imports into Indonesia being the main reason (while the country’s impressive export performance is nice, but essentially the result of Indonesia’s over-dependence on raw commodity prices, which is actually a structural weakness of Southeast Asia’s largest economy).
Indonesia started the year with another comfortable trade surplus. In January 2021 the country posted a trade surplus of USD $1.96 billion. Since May 2020 Indonesia has been recording an impressive series of big trade surpluses, each month. This is a positive matter for the country’s current account balance and the rupiah rate (and thus also supports risk appetite in the capital markets).
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The economic stabilisation policies launched by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and the Indonesian government in recent months have brought a steady improvement in the country's current account balance. The current account deficit moderated from the previous quarter’s record USD $9.9 billion (equivalent to 4.4 percent of the country's GDP) to USD $8.4 billion (3.8 percent of GDP) in the third quarter of 2013. A shrinking current account deficit is highly awaited by investors. The text below is the official press release of Bank Indonesia.
Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).
Indonesia's October inflation rate was well-received by investors. On Friday (01/11), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that the country's inflation in October 2013 grew 0.09 percent. Easing inflation was mainly due to falling prices of raw foods and clothes. Year-on-year (yoy), however, Indonesia's inflation is still high at 8.32 percent, although showing a moderating trend from 8.40 percent (yoy) in September 2013 and 8.79 percent (yoy) in August 2013. Inflation had skyrocketed after subsidized fuel prices were raised by an average 33 percent in June.
On 12 October 2013 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors from Korea and Indonesia agreed to establish a bilateral KRW/IDR swap arrangement in the near future. The size of the swap arrangement is up to KRW 10.7 trillion/IDR 115 trillion (equivalent to USD $10 billion). The effective period of the facility will be three years, and could be extended by agreement by both sides. This Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) aims to promote bilateral trade and further strengthen financial cooperation, an objective of mutual interest to both countries.
The World Bank has revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to 5.9 percent from its original estimate of 6.2 percent. Similarly, the institution has altered its forecast for economic growth in 2014 from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent. The revised figures were published in July's edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled 'Adjusting to Pressures'. The World Bank's forecast is also in sharp contrast with the GDP assumption of the Indonesian government, which puts economic growth in 2013 at 6.3 percent.
Indonesia and Sweden intend to increase business relations between both countries. Last month, Indonesia's president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono made a state visit to Sweden, while in 2012 Sweden prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt visited Indonesia. A number of topics were discussed during these visits, including trade and investment. After the discussions, both countries agreed that trade and investment between the countries should be expanded. Up to early 2013, 77 Swedish companies are in operation in Indonesia.
Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.
Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.
Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia or BI) announced on Wednesday (15/05/13) that the country's external balance has improved during Q1-2013 as non-oil and gas trade were up. Indonesia's current account deficit stood at USD $5.3 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in Q1-2013, compared to the previous quarter's deficit of USD $7.6 billion (3.5 percent of GDP). Indonesia has experienced a widening trade deficit, although it recorded a trade surplus of USD $304.90 in March, the first trade surplus since September 2012.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) decided to maintain its record low policy rate for the 15th straight month at 5.75 percent as it is considered consistent with its inflation target range of 3.5-5.5 percent in 2013 and 2014. The central bank also stated that the global economic recovery is accompanied by many uncertainties which result in a lower forecast for Indonesia's economic growth. The full press release of Bank Indonesia can be read below.