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After receiving criticism from various stakeholders, the Indonesian government reportedly decided to postpone the implementation of a new regulation that requires all domestic coal, palm oil and rice exporters to use ships that are owned by local sea shipping companies and requires them to use domestic insurance.
Indonesia's current account balance - the sum of the balance of trade (goods and services exports less imports), net income from abroad and net current transfers - showed a deficit of 1.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017, narrowly improving from a 1.8 percent deficit in the preceding year and constituting the lowest deficit since 2012.
Enggartiasto Lukita, Indonesian Trade Minister, said the nation's full-year 2017 exports climbed 16.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $168.7 billion. This is a positive growth pace. However, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, expressed his anger at Minister Lukita as Indonesia's export performance (especially in terms of value) lags far behind its counterparts in the Southeast Asian region.
Ngakan Timur Antara, Head of the Agency for Industrial Research and Development (in Indonesian: Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Industri, or BPPI), said Indonesia occupies the fifth position in terms of the world's largest leather and footwear (shoe) exporters.
Although, overall, Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2017 was slightly disappointing at a pace of 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y), investment, export and government consumption all strengthened. Hence, the main reason why Indonesia's Q3-2017 GDP growth was below expectations is sliding growth of household consumption.
The economy of China grew 6.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2017. An improving Chinese economy is important for the Indonesian economy as China is the biggest trading partner of Indonesia. Slightly over 10 percent of total Indonesian exports are shipped to China, the world's second-largest economy.
Indonesia's Statistics Bureau (BPS) said Indonesia recorded a USD $1.72 billion trade surplus in August 2017, exceeding analysts' expectations and significantly higher than the USD $0.3 billion surplus that was recorded in the same month one year earlier. In fact, it was Indonesia's biggest surplus in nearly five years (in November 2012 Indonesia recorded a USD $1.8 billion trade surplus).
Indonesian entrepreneurs urge the central government to sign more bilateral free trade agreements because Indonesia's export products currently miss out on competitiveness as regional counterparts - such as those in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam - can enjoy little or zero import duties under such agreements with specific trading partners, while the Indonesian government remains hesitant to be engaged in these deals.
Contrary to expectations Indonesia posted a trade deficit in July 2017. The nation's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Tuesday (15/08) that Southeast Asia's largest economy experienced a USD $271.2 million trade deficit last month, the country's first deficit in 19 months.
Although the nation continued to record a trade surplus, Indonesia's exports and imports unexpectedly contracted in June 2017. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (17/07) that exports declined 11.82 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $11.64 billion, while imports fell 17.21 percent (y/y) to USD $10.01 billion last month. Hence resulting in a USD $1.63 billion trade surplus in June, up from a revised USD $580 million trade surplus in the preceding month.
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Indonesia posted a USD $1.02 billion trade surplus in September 2015, higher than analysts' estimates and up from a revised USD $328 million trade surplus recorded in the preceding month. It was the tenth consecutive monthly trade surplus for Indonesia. However, the country's September trade surplus is primarily the result of rapidly declining imports, reflecting weak investment growth and weak consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia this year from five percent (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) due to the perceived hard landing of China’s economy in combination with sluggish conditions in Japan and the Eurozone. Weak demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and the top trading partner of Indonesia, is expected to continue to plague Indonesian exports and earnings.
For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.
For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.
Since late 2011 Indonesia has been plagued by a structural current account deficit (CAD) that has worried both policymakers and (foreign) investors. Despite Indonesian authorities having implemented policy reforms and economic adjustments in recent years, the country’s CAD remains little-changed in 2015. The World Bank and Bank Indonesia both expect the CAD to persist at slightly below 3 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, alarmingly close to the boundary that separates a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.
When we look at the long-term activity in the Indonesian rupiah, we have seen a surprising level of strength when viewing the activity seen in recent months. This has been surprising for a few different reasons, as this is not something that can be said for markets in emerging Asia as a whole. This essentially suggests that economic activity in the region has been somewhat disjointed and that trends visible in one country cannot necessarily be expected in another. But when we look at chart activity in the rupiah itself, we can see that the broader trends have started to change over the last two months.
Indonesia posted a higher-than-expected USD $454.4 million trade surplus in April 2015. Previously, analysts predicted to see an April trade surplus of around USD $120 million. However, the USD $454.4 million trade surplus was smaller than the (revised) USD $1 billion trade surplus recorded in March. Moreover, the April surplus (the country’s fifth consecutive trade surplus) is primarily caused by a large drop in imports, signalling that Indonesia’s economic performance remains sluggish at the start of Q2-2015.
Over the last year, the Indonesian rupiah has been rising when compared to a wide variety of world currencies. Some of the more pronounced strength has been seen against the US dollar, which has been travelling in the opposite direction for most of the same period. To many investors that are focused on the currency markets, it might appear as though these two currencies are largely unrelated. But when we look at the trends that have been developing over the last year, it quickly becomes clear that this is just not the case.
Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.
Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. This interest rate environment is considered to be in line with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to push the country’s inflation figure within its target of 4±1 percent for 2015 and 2016, as well as to control the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.
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