The Indonesian rupiah - in line with other emerging Asian currencies - feels the negative impact of China’s interest rate cut. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.40 percent to IDR 12,984 per US dollar at 11:10 am local Jakarta time on Monday (02/03), coming very close to the psychological boundary of IDR 13,000. Last Saturday (28/02), China’s central bank announced to cut its one-year deposit rate and the one-year lending rate by 25 basis points each to 2.50 percent and 5.35 percent, respectively.

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After Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated that the US central bank will be patient in raising the interest rate environment in the world’s largest economy, Indonesian assets gained on Wednesday (25/02). Both the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate strengthened 0.51 percent yesterday. Apart from increased speculation that the Fed will not raise interest rates before summer, expectation that Greece will avoid a disastrous default brought more positive market sentiments.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose about 15 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.8 million tons in January 2015 from the same month last year. However, on a month-on-month (m/m) basis Indonesian CPO exports fell 8 percent in the first month of 2015. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director at the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), said that CPO exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy declined in January as demand from nearly all main CPO export markets, particularly China and India, fell at the year-start.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) believes that it is difficult for Indonesia to achieve the government’s target of collecting USD $36 billion by 2019 through crude palm oil (CPO) exports as several government policies disturb the performance of CPO exports. Moreover, global commodity prices (including palm oil) are still showing a downward trend - hence limiting foreign exchange earnings - as global economic growth remains sluggish. Economic growth of China, a major CPO importer, is expected to slow further this year.

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Official data show that in 2014 China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, imported the lowest amount of nickel ore since 2010. Apart from slowing economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy (China’s economic expansion having eased to 7.4 percent year-on-year in 2014), falling nickel ore imports are also caused by Indonesia’s ban on exports of unprocessed minerals (implemented in January 2014) and monsoon rains in the Philippines (limiting production and seaborne trade).

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Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) Agus Martowardojo said that there are two main global challenges that are being faced by Southeast Asia’s largest economy and which can impact negatively on the nation’s economy. These challenges are the low global oil prices (which have fallen below USD $50 per barrel) and the monetary policy normalization of the US Federal Reserve amid the structural economic recovery of the USA. This policy involves higher US interest rates (expected in the second half of 2015) and a bullish US dollar.

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Major chocolate producers recently warned that worldwide economic growth in combination with global population growth will result in a cocoa deficit in a few years hence prices of chocolate are estimated to rise. Especially chocolate consumption in China has risen robustly in recent years. In 2010, the population of China consumed 40,000 tons of chocolate. However, this has now risen by 75 percent to 70,000 tons. Moreover, consumption of dark chocolate, which contains a higher degree of cocoa, has grown in the USA.

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Despite slowing economic growth in China (the world’s second-largest economy), the World Bank forecasts higher economic growth for emerging markets in 2015 driven by a decline in global oil prices, a stronger US economy, and continued low global interest rates. The World Bank expects to see a 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate in emerging markets this year, up from an estimated 4.4 percent (y/y) in 2014. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow 3 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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The Standard Chartered Bank expects the economy of Indonesia to accelerate slightly in 2015 compared to this year’s estimated performance. The bank forecasts a growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) next year, up from 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014. Standard Chartered Bank economist Eric Sugandi recently said that the Indonesian economy will be affected by two factors: the great rotation (capital outflows from emerging markets ahead of US interest rate hikes) and growth disparity (slowing growth or recession in China and Japan).

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In its latest report entitled ‘Growth Hesitates in Developing Asia’ (which is a supplement to the ‘Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update’), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) slightly downgraded economic growth in developing Asia to 6.1 percent (y/y) in 2014 from its September estimate of 6.2 percent (y/y). Despite slowing momentum the ADB believes that current low oil prices constitute a great opportunity for Asian countries to conduct structural reforms as many of these countries are net oil importers.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is optimistic that the country's currency will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2014. Executive Director at the Economic and Monetary Policy Department of Bank Indonesia Juda Agung said that there are two factors that impact positively on the performance of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate: the improved global economy and strengthening domestic economic fundamentals. However, Agung declined to estimate the value of the rupiah by the end of Q1-2014.

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As we have explained before, a significant amount of market participants will engage in profit taking after a day (or in this case a number of days) of gain. Mixed sentiments originating from the Asian continent, particularly Japan and China, as well as the depreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate contributed to the slight gain of Indonesia's benchmark index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG). The IHSG rose 0.02 percent to 4,556.19 points on Tuesday (18/02).

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, also known as IHSG) continued its upward rally on Monday (17/02) even though it had concerned us that the index almost touched its 'overbought' level. Especially as the index posted limited gain by the end of last week, it made us unsure about its performance on Monday. And while there are several factors that caused positive market sentiments, we still warn for potential weakening of the index due to profit taking. On Monday (17/02), the IHSG rose 1.05% to 4,555.37 points.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its recent appreciating trend on Monday (17/02). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency strengthened 0.39 percent to IDR 11,785 per US dollar at 16:00 local Jakarta time. Main reason for this renewed confidence in the rupiah is Indonesia's current account deficit, which eased significantly by the end of 2013. According to Bank Indonesia, the deficit eased from 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2013 to 1.98 percent of GDP in Q4-2013.

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At Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors’ Meeting today (13/02), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent as well as the interest rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. The policy is consistent with the tight monetary policy stance currently adopted in order to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index/JCI) rebounded on Tuesday (11/02) after being impacted by rising Asian stock indices that followed Wall Street's positive ending on Monday (10/02) as well as higher prices of several commodities. Moreover, JP Morgan Chase & Co released a positive assessment of China's banks and stock market. Lastly, Standard & Poor’s put Indonesia's banks on a stable outlook. Combined, these factors made the IHSG rise 0.44 percent to 4,470.19 points.

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Despite mixed European and American markets on Wednesday (23/01) and declining Asian markets on Thursday (23/01) as these responded to weak Chinese manufacturing data and South Korea's Q4-2013 GDP outcome, it was unable to block Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) from extending its upward movement. The IHSG was supported by various positive company releases, including financial results of 2013, capital expenditure announcements, and new products or services releases.

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The forming of a morning doji star indeed indicated that there was potential for continued upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) despite the profit taking actions that emerged and limited the gain of the index (particularly those stocks that went into the overbought area). Factors that contributed positively to today's (21/01) performance of the Jakarta Composite Index were rising Asian stock markets and a rebound in commodity stocks as a number of commodities recorded slightly higher prices.

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The movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) on today's trading day (20/01) was rather volatile. Investors returned to the market after the fall of the index was limited at the end of last week. However, China's slowing economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 (7.7 percent) brought negative market sentiments. Still, foreign investors were net buyers of Indonesian stocks today and in combination with an appreciating rupiah exchange rate, the index rose 0.44 percent to 4,431.57 points.

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate had depreciated 0.18 percent to IDR 12,113 per US dollar at 14:45 local Jakarta time on Monday (20/01). The most important factor that caused this negative performance was China's slowing economic growth in quarter IV-2013. In the fourth quarter of 2013, China's GDP grew 7.7 percent, down from 7.8 percent in the previous quarter. This slowing growth indicates that China's economic 'recovery' is still fragile (China is among the five most important trade partners of Indonesia).

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