Despite having contracted for 17 straight months, there has emerged optimism that Indonesia's manufacturing industry will rebound in 2016. Yesterday (01/03), Markit Economics announced that the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a reading of 48.7 in February 2016, slightly down from a reading of 48.9 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 signals contraction). According to Markit economist Pollyanna De Lima Indonesia's manufacturing sector continues to show a recovering trend, despite the soft decline in February.

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For the 17th straight month Indonesia's manufacturing sector contracted. Based on the latest survey from Nikkei, the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a reading of 48.7 in February 2016, slightly down from a reading of 48.9 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity has contracted). It confirms that both global and domestic growth remained subdued in the first months of 2016, hence new orders continued to decline, while unemployment rose.

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Indonesia's manufacturing industry was worth IDR 2,097.7 trillion (approx. USD $156 billion) in 2015, contributing 18.1 percent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), up from 17.8 percent of GDP in the preceding year. However, this higher contribution of manufacturing to the economy is mainly caused by the declining roles of oil & gas, commodities, agriculture and mining within the Indonesian economy. These sectors have all seen their roles decline amid persistently low commodity prices.

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Although at a slower pace, Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to contract in January 2016. According to the latest Nikkei survey, the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.9 in the first month of 2016 from a reading of 47.8 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector). It was the 16th consecutive month of contraction in Indonesia's manufacturing sector as domestic and global economic growth remains subdued.

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The latest survey from Nikkei showed that Indonesia's manufacturing sector contracted for the 15th straight month. In the last month of 2015 factory activity in Indonesia showed a reading of 47.8, improving from a reading of 46.9 in November but remaining stubbornly below the 50.0 level that separates contraction from expansion. Since October 2014 Indonesia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has been in contraction.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Industry is optimistic that the country's manufacturing industry will grow 5.7 percent (year-on-year) in 2016, up from the estimated 5.3 percent growth pace this year. Indonesian Minister Saleh Husin said this optimism is based on higher domestic direct investment. Domestic investment realization in Indonesia's industry sector rose 7.45 percent (y/y) to IDR 20.1 trillion (approx. USD $1.5 billion) in the third quarter of 2015 from IDR 18.7 trillion in the same quarter last year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia's industry sector stood at USD $3.15 billion in Q3-2015.

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For the 12th consecutive month Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted as output and new orders declined. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 47.4 in September 2015 from 48.4 in the preceding month and below analysts' forecasts (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion). September's contraction was the second-fastest drop in Indonesia's manufacturing activity since the index was started in early 2012.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia contracted for the 10th consecutive month in July 2015 as new orders declined. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing manager’s index (PMI), released on Monday (03/08), fell 0.5 points to 47.3 last month (from 47.8 in June), remaining below the level of 50 points that separates contraction from expansion. Due to deteriorating conditions in the country’s manufacturing sector, Indonesian factories shed jobs at the fastest pace since the survey started in 2011.

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Indonesia’s manufacturing activity continued to contract in June. It was the ninth consecutive month that the country’s manufacturing sector contracted. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing manager's index (PMI) rose slightly to 47.8 in June 2015 from 47.1 in May, implying that the sector contracted at a slower pace but remained well below the level of 50 that separates contraction from expansion. Contraction continued due to persistent declines in new orders and production. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures (7.26 percent y/y in June) persist.

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Although improving slightly, Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted for the 8th straight month in May 2015. The HSBC Markit purchasing manager’s index (PMI) rose to 47.1 in May from 46.7 in the preceding month (a score below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity). The survey indicated that output, new orders and employment remained weak. This feeds expectation that a sudden improvement in Indonesian manufacturing in the near term is highly unlikely. On a positive note, output and new orders fell at weaker rates.

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Indonesia's Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.7 in March 2018 from a reading of 51.4 in the preceding month (when manufacturing activity touched a 20-month high in Southeast Asia's largest economy). Softer expansion in output and new orders were cited as reason for slowing growth. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction.

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One method to ignite structurally high economic growth for a sustained period of time in Indonesia is to encourage the development of the country's stagnant manufacturing sector. A thriving manufacturing industry (especially when it can export domestically manufactured products) will accelerate economic growth and generate plenty of employment opportunities (which will then encourage rising household consumption).

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia continued to contract in January 2018 (for the second month in a row) albeit at a slower pace. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 49.3 in December 2017 to a reading of 49.9 in January (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity).

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The manufacturing industry of Indonesia remains in a troublesome state. The latest Nikkei Indonesia manufacturing purchasing managers' Index (PMI) reading declined to 49.3 in December 2017, from 50.4 in the preceding month (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while above 50.0 indicates growth in the country's manufacturing activity). It was the first time since July 2017 that Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted.

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Indonesia is being threatened by deindustrialization. There have been reports that rising minimum wages, the low quality of local human resources, or scarcity of local raw materials have been encouraging companies in certain industries to relocate to other countries in Asia. This partly explains why the manufacturing industry's role toward Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) has been on the decline.

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Activity in Indonesia's manufacturing industry tumbled into contraction again in June 2017, after having experienced four months of straight growth. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to a reading of 49.5 in June, from 50.6 in the preceding month (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion). Contraction in Indonesia's manufacturing sector is particularly blamed on a stagnation in domestic order books.

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The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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Indonesia has always been hesitant to join free-trade deals with other nations on fears that domestic industries cannot compete with foreign counterparts, which could lead to an influx of cheaper, yet higher-quality foreign products. During his visit to the White House, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said Indonesia intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Back home, this statement led to concern. What are the negative consequences for Indonesia when joining this deal?

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (01/09) that Indonesian inflation has eased slightly to 7.18 percent (y/y) in August 2015, from 7.26 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. On a month-on-month basis, inflation climbed 0.39 percent in August, below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s manufacturing sector continued to contract in August, albeit conditions improved from the preceding month.

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One of the key strategies to improve the economic fundamentals of Indonesia is to restructure and strengthen the country’s exports. This restructuring involves the transformation of Indonesian exports from being dominated by (raw) commodities to manufactured exports by developing downstream industries in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, including import substitution industrialization in order to curb the country’s demand for imported products amid Indonesians’ rising purchasing power.

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