The Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI) expects Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports to drop 8.7 percent (y/y) to 21 million tons next year from an estimated 23 million tons in 2015. This decline in export is attributed to an increase in domestic CPO consumption amid the full implementation of the country's B15 biodiesel program. Domestic consumption of CPO is estimated to grow 37 percent (y/y) from 8.4 million tons in 2015 to 11.5 million tons in 2016. If the B20 biodiesel program will be implemented as well, then Indonesia's CPO exports may decline further.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) said Indonesia's crude palm oil exports stood at 2.38 million in November 2015, down 8.6 percent from CPO exports in the preceding month. This decline is attributed to weaker demand from Indonesia's main export markets and to the cheap price of soybeans (soybean oil is a close substitute to palm oil for food and biodiesel uses). However, on a year-on-year basis, Indonesia's CPO exports are up 21 percent (y/y) to 23.9 million in the January-November 2015 period.

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While many of Indonesia's coal producers have ceased operations as the production cost margin turned negative, the country's crude palm oil (CPO) producers are still making a profit despite palm oil prices also having weakened sharply in recent years. The Palm Oil Agribusiness Strategic Policy Institute (Paspi) said that production costs for palm oil producers stand in the range of USD $250 to USD $300 per ton, implying that with current CPO prices at around USD $550 per ton, CPO producers still make a reasonable profit.

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On 29 November 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on inflation, the palm oil industry, purchasing power, the coal mining industry, IPOs, radical Islam, sustainable finance, the timber industry, and more.

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Global crude palm oil (CPO) prices may climb up to USD $800 per metric ton in 2016, from USD $575 per ton (FOB) currently, due to the looming implementation of the B20 biodiesel program in Indonesia and curbed CPO output in 2016. Moreover, global oil prices are expected to rise to around USD $60 per barrel in 2016. Higher petroleum prices should boost demand for biodiesel (diesel blended with palm methyl ester, which is subsidized through the Indonesian government's CPO fund program).

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The El Nino-inflicted dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia, possibly the worst in nearly two decades, is expected to curtail crude palm oil (CPO) output in both countries, implying that palm oil prices can extend their rally into next year. Moreover, Indonesia will consume more CPO as the government will raise the mandatory amount of palm oil blended with diesel from 15 to 20 percent (part of its B20 biofuel program) in early 2016. Since August - when prices were at a six-year low - palm oil futures have surged 26 percent.

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Although Indonesia's B15 biodiesel program, which refers to the government's program to blend 85 percent of diesel with a mandatory 15 percent of fatty acid methyl ester (derived from palm oil), is no success yet, the government is expected to introduce the B20 biodiesel program (raising the mandatory content of fatty methyl ester in biofuel to 20 percent) in early 2016. To support the B20 program, eleven companies are ready to supply biodiesel to state-owned energy company Pertamina and publicly-listed petroleum and basic chemicals distributor AKR Corporindo between November 2015 and April 2016.

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Third-quarter corporate earnings of Astra International, one of Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerates, cause concern that economic growth of Indonesia has continued to slow in Q3-2015. Corporate earnings of Astra International are a solid indicator of the country's total growth as the company is engaged in basically all key sectors of the economy. Astra reported a 17.2 percent decline (year-on-year) in net profit to IDR 12 trillion (approx. USD $888 million). Sales fell 8 percent (y/y) to IDR 138 trillion.

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Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is estimated to rise to 33 million tons in 2016, roughly 500,000 tons lower than the initial forecast as the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to impact on agricultural output by causing an extended dry season in Southeast Asia (that will perhaps last beyond December). This year, Indonesia, the global leading CPO producer and exporter, is expected to produce 31.5 million tons. Reduced output in Indonesia may support palm oil prices.

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The Indonesian government will (temporarily) stop using sustainability standards designed by the European Union regarding crude palm oil (CPO). Indonesian Minister of Maritime Affairs Rizal Ramli said the current strict standards of the European Union hurt the domestic palm oil industry, especially smallholders. Moreover, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's two largest CPO producers and exporters, are to set up a new intergovernmental palm oil council that will design new rules and standards regarding sustainable palm oil production.

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Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.

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Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.

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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

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Indonesia is the world’s biggest palm oil grower as well as the world’s biggest exporter of crude palm oil (CPO). Traditionally, palm oil exports are ranked among the top three export products of Indonesia (along with coal and natural gas). As such, palm oil is of crucial importance for the Indonesian economy.

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It have not been great times for palm oil farmers and traders. Malaysia’s benchmark palm oil price is currently hovering near a three-year low of 1,949 ringgit (approx. USD $464.8) per ton amid high inventories, rising production and sluggish global demand.

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Several negative sentiments are putting pressure on the crude palm oil (CPO) price in the first week of March 2018. These sentiments are expected to continue pushing downward pressure on the CPO price in the remainder of this week. On Monday (05/03) the CPO price on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (May 2018 shipments) fell 0.28 percent to 2,467 ringgit per metric ton. Compared to one week earlier, the price has now declined 2.91 percent.

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In the battle between Indonesia and the European Union (EU) regarding the latter's anti-dumping duties on Indonesian biodiesel exports, Indonesia won six out of seven legal challenges. Indonesia had challenged the EU's duties, set in 2013, on biodiesel imports from Indonesia and Argentina. The World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled, largely, in favor of Indonesia.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to strengthen in the first quarter of 2018 due to the impact of the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand in the traditional big CPO importing countries. This is good news for stakeholders in the palm oil industry as the price has been sliding around 16 percent so far this year (toward the 2,700 Malaysian ringgit per ton level).

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Foreign exchange earnings are important assets for a national economy. Therefore, many nations have recently been taking a much more protectionist approach vis-à-vis trade in an effort to strengthen their trade positions, generate trade surpluses, hence see the inflow of more foreign exchange earnings. Foreign exchange assets support a stable local currency as well as economy.

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The Indonesian government is eager to boost domestic crude palm oil (CPO) production, but not at the expense of tropical forest (by adding new oil palm plantations). Instead, a new government program aims to replant 20,000 hectares of smallholder palm oil plantations in 2017 under the condition that farmers meet the requirements that are stipulated by Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) certification.

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