Demand for Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) - both global and domestic demand - surged, giving rise to impressive corporate earnings reports of Indonesian palm oil producers in the first quarter of 2014. Combined, net profit of plantation companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, rose 116 percent. Indonesia's plantation sector is dominated by production of crude palm oil products and derivatives. Because of increased global demand, the value of Indonesian CPO exports is expected to rise to USD $22-24 billion.

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Indonesian companies engaged in the production of crude palm oil (CPO) recorded impressive financial figures in the first quarter of 2014. Combined, 13 CPO companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange posted IDR 3 trillion (USD $260.9 million) in net profits over the first quarter of 2014, a 116.1 percentage growth from the same period last year. Main reasons for this growth are the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in combination with the rising global CPO price and looming new El Niño cycle.

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Indonesia's March 2014 trade balance recorded a surplus of USD $673 million as the value of exports reached USD $15.21 billion, while imports stood at USD $14.54 billion. It was the second consecutive monthly trade surplus for Indonesia. In February 2014, the country posted an USD $843.4 million trade surplus. In the first three months of this year, Indonesia's trade balance now accumulated to an USD $1.07 billion surplus. Market participants will be pleased to see this balance as it eases pressures on the current account deficit.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of Astra Agro Lestari in our Indonesian Companies section. Astra Agro Lestari is Indonesia's largest agribusiness company by value. The company, majority-owned by diversified conglomerate Astra International, is engaged in palm oil and rubber plantations as well as industrial activities. It currently manages a total plantation area of 281,378 hectares - including nucleus and plasma - in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) stated that exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives have increased 13 percent to 1.79 million tons in March 2014 from 1.58 million tons in the previous month. The increase was particularly due to a surge in the price of soybeans since February which makes importers shift their focus to CPO and its derivatives as a substitute for soybeans. Moreover, CPO prices have risen due to speculation about the looming El Niño cycle and declining stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia.

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Concerns about the arrival of a new El Niño weather phenomenon have increased in recent weeks. A possible new El Niño cycle has a major impact on the global commodities market. El Niño - a weather phenomenon that occurs once every five years on average - involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America which can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean. Its impact on harvests and the world varies; sometimes passing almost unnoticeable (such as in 2010) but it can also be felt worldwide.

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After announcing the low March inflation rate (0.08 percent), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) also released positive news about Indonesia's trade balance. In February 2014, Indonesia recorded a USD $785.3 million trade surplus, supported by a USD $1.58 billion surplus in the non-oil and gas sector (the oil and gas sector recorded a deficit of USD $797.4 million). According to BPS Head Suryamin, exports in February rose 0.68 percent (month-to-month) to USD $14.57 billion, while imports declined 7.58 percent (mtm) to USD $13.78 billion.

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So far, the year 2014 is marked by adjustments in forecasts for commodities demand and prices on the global market. The primary example is coffee. Due to severe drought in Brazil, weak coffee production is expected to result in a shortage of coffee on the international market. Uncertainty about the extent of the shortage has pushed coffee prices up by about 65 percent since the end of 2013. Meanwhile, Brazil's reduced arabica output cannot be replaced by Indonesia's robusta coffee due to high rainfall in the archipelago.

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Export of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) as well as derived products is expected to reach 22 million tons in 2014. As this year's CPO price is expected to average USD $1000 per ton, significantly higher than the average of USD $850 per ton in 2013, it will translate into higher revenue from the country's palm oil sector. The value of Indonesian CPO export in 2014 is estimated to accelerate to USD $22 billion due to dry weather threatening crops in Indonesia and Malaysia. Indonesia is the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil.

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Prices of certain food commodities increased significantly due to a combination of political tensions in Ukraine, weak harvests and a possible new El Niño cycle (periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America that can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean). El Niño is a well known weather phenomenon that occurs once every five years on average. However, its impact on the weather, harvests and the world varies; it can pass almost unnoticeable (such as in 2010) but it can also be felt worldwide.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.

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Last week, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono extended the moratorium on new permits to convert natural forests and peat lands for a further two years. In 2011, Indonesia's government signed the two-year primary forest moratorium that came into effect on 20 May 2011 and expired in May 2013. This moratorium implies a temporary stop to the granting of new permits to clear rain forests and peat lands in the country. The moratorium particularly aims to limit Indonesia's quickly expanding palm oil industry.

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Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.

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Shareholders of Astra Agro Lestari, Indonesia's largest agribusiness company by value (which is particularly engaged in palm oil and rubber plantations), agreed to distribute IDR 1.08 trillion (USD $111 million) in dividends to its shareholders. The allocated amount is equivalent to about 45 percent of the company's net profit in 2012. Dividend per share is set at IDR 685 (USD $0.071). Last November, the company had already paid interim dividend of IDR 230 per share. Final dividend will be paid on 3 June 2013.

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Indonesian companies engaged in the production of a variety of agricultural products, such as palm oil, experienced a rather poor year in 2012 regarding net profit. Global economic turmoil has reduced the world's consumption of palm oil in both the developed markets and developing markets. In particular decreased demand from China, the world’s biggest buyer after India, made a negative impact on the balance sheets of Indonesian companies.

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