Cement sales in Indonesia in the first four months of 2016 reached 19.3 million tons, up 4.2 percent (y/y) from the January-April period one year earlier, supported by additional cement supplies by three newcomers in Indonesia's cement industry and higher cement demand. The three newcomers supplied 600,000 tons of cement in the first four months. Trimegah Securities noted that without these additional supplies, Indonesia's cement sales in January-April 2016 would only have increased 0.7 percent (y/y).

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The cement manufacturers in Indonesia are in need of participating in a cement price war in order to gain market share in Southeast Asia's largest economy. According to analysts a price war cannot be avoided due to the influx of new players in Indonesia's cement industry. This influx causes rising cement production capacity in Indonesia, while domestic cement demand remains sluggish. The new and smaller cement players offer low prices to gain market share. The bigger and long-term established cement companies may need to join in this price war in order to defend their market share.

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Cement sales in Indonesia rose 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.45 million tons in February 2016 from the same month one year earlier. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesia's rising cement sales were caused by the ongoing development of infrastructure projects across the archipelago. Three regions showed a marked increase in cement sales last month: Sumatra (+16.5 percent y/y to 2.13 million tons), Sulawesi (+33 percent y/y to 841,000 tons) and the Moluccas & Papua (+31 percent y/y to 125,000 tons).

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On 21 February 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as new rules regarding banks' net interest margin, an update on Indonesia's trade balance, interest rates, the 2016 State Budget, the coal industry, the cement industry, and more.

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The start of infrastructure projects in Indonesia - ranging from roads, bridges, power plants, smelters, and public housing - has managed to boost cement consumption in the first month of 2016. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said domestic cement consumption in Indonesia rose 4.4 percent (y/y) to 5.14 million tons in January 2016 from the same month one year earlier. Highest growth in consumption occurred in Sumatra (+15.8 percent y/y to 1.1 million tons), Java (+5.3 percent y/y to 2.9 million tons) and Sulawesi (+19 percent y/y to 424,000 tons).

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Indonesia's cement sales totaled 61 million tons in 2015, up 1.8 percent from sales in 2014. Although the pace of growth is limited, the final result was well received by stakeholders and policymakers because in the first half of 2015 the nation's cement sales growth still stood at -1.5 percent on a year-on-year basis due to a delay in government-led infrastructure development. In the second half of the year there occurred a surge in infrastructure development projects, hence triggering higher cement sales.

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The push for government-led infrastructure development across Indonesia, which started from mid-2015, is expected to cause rising cement sales in Indonesia in 2016. The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) expects to see a 5 percentage point growth in Indonesian cement sales to 64.5 million tons this year (from an estimated 61.5 million tons in 2015). However, ASI Chairman Widodo Santoso emphasized that a delay in government spending could jeopardize achieving the sales projection.

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Cement sales in Indonesia climbed 4.7 percent (y/y) to 6.1 million tons in November 2015 supported by rising cement sales in all regions apart from the Moluccas and Papua. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said domestic cement demand rose sharply in November despite seeing some rainfall (which usually leads to delays in development of infrastructure and other construction projects). Santoso says this rise is due to improved government spending on infrastructure projects.

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Sales of Semen Indonesia, Indonesia's leading cement producer, are expected to remain stagnant in 2015 despite recently rising cement demand due to the kick off of various government-led infrastructure projects. In the January-October 2015 period, the company's cement sales fell 2 percent compared to sales in the same period last year. On a positive note, Semen Indonesia's cement sales in October surged 10 percent to 2.7 million tons compared to the same month one year earlier. But with two months remaining it is not expected that the company's sales will significantly rise from last year's sales (26.6 million tons).

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According to the latest data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), Indonesia's cement sales climbed 10.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.4 million tons in October 2015 as government-related infrastructure development has picked up in the second half of the year (cement sales only contracted on the island of Kalimantan in October). Cement sales are an interesting indicator as they provide valuable information about the country's household consumption and investment in property and infrastructure sectors.

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Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP), Indonesia's second-largest cement producer, is planning to invest between US $260 and $320 for the establishment of three new cement factories. One of these factories - with a production capacity of 4.4 million ton per year - will be built on brownfield land (in Citeureup, West Java), while the other two will be built on greenfield land and will have a combined production capacity of about five million ton annually.

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Both Indonesia's cement production and cement consumption have risen rapidly in recent years. As the country has been showing solid economic growth for a decade - and is forecast to continue this growth -, property and infrastructure projects have grown in number accordingly, thus increasing demand for building materials such as cement. Moreover, the government is committed to enhance the country's much-needed infrastructure development.

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