The government of Indonesia says the budget deficit (set in the state budget) and debt ratio are safe. In Indonesia's 2017 State Budget the government targets a 2.41 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) budget deficit (below the legal limit of 3 percent of GDP as stipulated by Law No. 17/2003). Meanwhile, Indonesia debt-to-GDP ratio was 28 percent at end-2016, a very comfortable ratio (for comparison, Japan's debt ratio exceeds 200 percent of GDP).

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati expects global uncertainties to linger in 2017 and continue to have a significant impact on the economy of Indonesia. Uncertainties are caused by the US economy, Donald Trump's victory in the US 2016 presidential election, the economic and monetary policies of advanced economies and the economic slowdown of China. She added that the 2017 State Budget, which set conservative targets in terms of Indonesia's GDP growth as well as government revenue and spending, was designed with these global challenges in mind.

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The first phase of Indonesia's tax amnesty program was a success in terms of tax declarations and state revenue (penalties). Fund repatriations, on the other hand, were disappointing as - apparently - Indonesian tax payers find it not attractive enough to transfer these funds into Indonesian investment instruments or lack confidence in Indonesia's political and financial stability (perhaps still haunted by traumas from the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s). However, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati remains optimistic that repatriations will rise soon now the winner of the US presidential election is known.

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In the 2017 State Budget the Indonesian government allocated IDR 387.3 trillion (approx. USD $29.8 billion) for infrastructure development, up from IDR 317.1 trillion in the 2016 budget. Since Joko Widodo became Indonesian President in 2014 the infrastructure budget of Indonesia has been raised rapidly, showing that Widodo kept his pledge and is serious about constructing roads, bridges, airports, harbors, and railways in an effort to enhance connectivity in Southeast Asia's largest economy, reduce logistics costs and enforce the multiplier effect.

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The Financial System Stability Committee (in Indonesian: Komite Stabilitas Keuangan, or KSSK) stated that Indonesia's economy is stable. The KSSK further informed that it will raise efforts to enhance market confidence in Indonesia's financial sector. The KSSK, an Indonesian institution that is responsible for preventing financial crises, consists of a selection of key policymakers from the Finance Ministry, Bank Indonesia, Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS).

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program, which was launched in July 2016 and will run until 31 March 2017, can be labeled a success. Up to 16 October 2016, a total of IDR 3,842.9 trillion (approx. USD $296 billion) worth of assets (either at home or abroad) have been declared to Indonesia's tax authorities nearly achieving the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion. However, asset repatriations (from the so-called tax havens) are not a success, being far from the government's initial projection and therefore Indonesian authorities are now easing regulations.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is hopeful that credit rating agency Standards & Poor's (S&P) will raise Indonesia's credit rating to investment grade. Hope is based on Indonesia's healthier state budget and the higher degree of fiscal credibility (supported by the ongoing tax amnesty program). Out of the big three global credit rating agencies only S&P is yet to assign investment grade status to Indonesia. In June 2016 S&P kept Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+/positive outlook, one notch below investment grade.

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Contrary to our earlier predictions, Indonesia's tax amnesty program has been on a roll in September 2016. The program is designed to boost the government's tax revenue by offering tax evaders attractive rates to come clean and declare their previously undeclared assets (whether stashed at home or abroad in the so-called tax havens). Those who join the program can also repatriate offshore assets into Indonesia, into specifically prepared investment instruments where the funds need to stay for at least three years.

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The goverment of Indonesia plans to revise Government Regulation No. 79/2010 scrapping several taxes that have been a burden for those companies that invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry (both the exploration and production phase). The government expects that several new fiscal and non-fiscal incentives will boost investment in this industry starting from 2017. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said it is important for the government to share in the "pain" in order to make oil and gas projects economically viable for investors.

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According to reports in Indonesian media, President Joko Widodo is willing to extend the deadline for the first phase of the government's tax amnesty program. Originally, this first phase, which sets the most attractive tax rates for those who decide to declare previously undeclared assets and - if desired - repatriate their offshore assets into Indonesia, was designed to end on 30 September 2016. Rosan Roslani, Chairman of Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia), said Widodo is willing to extend the deadline on request of Indonesia's business community.

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At the annual “Fitch Ratings Indonesia Credit Briefing”, which was organized on 20 March 2019 in the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Jakarta, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was invited to present her keynote speech. This year's theme of Fitch Ratings’ annual event in Jakarta was "The Election, Macro-Economy and Credit Market", and therefore Sri Mulyani’s speech focused on two topics: (1) the elections and (2) the economy.

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The Indonesian government expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to have expanded 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2018. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati detects a strengthening domestic economy, supported by improved tax income and improved government spending in Q1-2018.

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One method to ignite structurally high economic growth for a sustained period of time in Indonesia is to encourage the development of the country's stagnant manufacturing sector. A thriving manufacturing industry (especially when it can export domestically manufactured products) will accelerate economic growth and generate plenty of employment opportunities (which will then encourage rising household consumption).

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Indonesia may see a IDR 120 trillion (approx. USD $8.8 billion) tax shortfall in 2017. The Indonesian government set a IDR 1,472.7 trillion (approx. USD $109 billion) tax revenue target (including customs and duties) in full-year 2017. However, up to 15 December only IDR 1,211.5 trillion has been collected. Traditionally Indonesia delivers a tax shortfall at the end of the year. This is expected to continue in 2018.

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On Monday (06/11) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia's third quarter GDP data, important information that is closely followed by investors and analysts. While most analysts expect to see accelerated economic growth in the third quarter, others remain skeptical as Indonesia's gross domestic product was disappointing in the first two quarters of the year amid bleak domestic consumption.

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From Hamburg (Germany) where he visited the G-20 summit, Indonesian President Joko Widodo instructed his cabinet to increase efforts to attract investment into Indonesia. Now Indonesia recently obtained the investment grade status from all important global credit rating agencies, it should make Indonesia a more attractive investment destination for foreigners, including institutional investors such as pension funds.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on 31 March 2017, so now it is time to take a look at the results. Although Indonesia's amnesty program has been labelled as one of the most - if not the most - successful amnesty programs ever around the globe (in terms of asset declarations), there is plenty of room for disappointment. Based on data from Indonesia's Tax Office, less than one million Indonesians joined the program. For many nations this would be a great number. For Indonesia this number means tax evasion remains rampant, implying the government misses out on much-needed tax revenue.

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While political leaders, bankers and economists met in Davos (Switzerland) for the World Economic Forum (17-20 January 2017), Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th US president in Washington. His speech was all about "America first", including a protectionist approach in trade, which Trump believes will lead to great prosperity and strength for the USA. Also in Europe anti-globalization sentiments are heard (such as the exit of Britain from the European Union). Most guests in Davos, on the contrary, favor higher global trade and worldwide economic participation.

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Whether it was caused by pressure from the Indonesian government, or, whether US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase itself came to the conclusion that its decision to double downgrade Indonesia from overweight to underweight (in November 2016) was excessive remains unknown. What is known is that JP Morgan upgraded its investment recommendation on Indonesian stocks to neutral from underweight on Monday (16/01). Main reason for this upgrade is that redemption and bond volatility risks have now played out, in the view of JP Morgan.

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The government of Indonesia suspended all cooperation with US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase after the US bank double downgraded Indonesia from overweight to underweight without elaborating too much on the exact motives behind this drastic move. According to Indonesian government officials this downgrade is excessive and lacks evidentiary support or rational justification. Moreover, they argue this "misleading" downgrade has a big psychological impact on investors and therefore it "disturbs Indonesia's financial stability".

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