The economy of Indonesia, which has been slowing since 2011, will have difficulty to rebound in 2015 as the central bank’s key interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be raised again to avert capital outflows brought on by higher interest rates in the US and to combat accelerated inflation after domestic subsidized fuel prices have been raised by the new government led by president-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi). After a GDP growth pace of 6.5 percent (y/y) in 2011, economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy fell to 5.8 percent (y/y) in 2013.

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On 28 September 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such Indonesia’s fuel subsidies, US interest rates, poverty, inequality, GDP growth, palm oil, rice, the Anas Urbaningrum graft case, as well as the passing of a new bill that ends direct voting in the regions, and more.

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The most controversial and heatedly debated news story from Indonesia in the past week was parliament’s approval of a new bill that puts an end to direct voting in the regions. This means that it are not the people but instead the regional legislatures that will elect mayors, district heads and governors. Critics say this is a major setback for the democracy process of Indonesia and will make local elections prone to corruption, collusion and nepotism as Indonesia’s legislatures - both at the national and regional level - are believed to be corrupted to a high degree.

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Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) passed a controversial bill in the early morning of Friday (26/09) that is widely criticized by media and analysts. After a walk out of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party (the largest party in parliament having 148 out of 560 seats) in the plenary session, parliament agreed that direct voting in the regions will be scrapped, thus leaving it to the regional legislatures to elect mayors, district heads and governors. Critics say this bill is a setback for democracy.

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Often the lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure in Indonesia has been cited as a reason for limited economic growth. Lack of adequate infrastructure causes the country's logistics costs to rise steeply, thus reducing competitiveness and attractiveness of the investment climate. Also in the country’s natural resources sector Indonesia’s infrastructure problems hamper development. For instance, the lack of quality irrigation to supply ample quantities of water to rice basins causes rice production to be far from optimal.

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A new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says that the Indonesian economy is expected to slow on weak export performance in 2014 before picking up in 2015 as external demand improves and the new government’s reform agenda takes hold. In an update of its Asian Development Outlook 2014, the ADB trimmed its forecast for 2014 growth in Indonesian gross domestic product (GDP) to 5.3 percent from 5.7 percent expected in April. The ADB expects a growth pace of 5.8 percent in 2015, down from 6.0 percent in April.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri stated that the Indonesian government plans to set aside a total of IDR 10 trillion (USD $837 million) in the state budgets of 2014 as well as 2015 to support the poor people of Indonesia through social safety programs. This is yet another indication that prices of subsidized fuels will be raised before the end of the year. Recently, it has been increasingly speculated that Indonesian president-elect Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”) will raise these prices by IDR 3,000 (USD $0.25) per liter.

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Indonesia’s seventh president Joko Widodo, who will take office on 20 October 2014, wants to conduct several reforms in Indonesia’s energy sector in an attempt to combat illegal practices and optimize state income. Firstly, Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, plans to audit operations of state-owned Pertamina’s energy trading unit Petral to halt alleged fuel smuggling and corruption. Secondly, Jokowi wants to impose major changes at Pertamina. Lastly, the president-elect wants to curb coal exports to ensure domestic supplies for power plants.

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The Budgetary Committee of Indonesia’s parliament announced on Monday (22/09) that it proposes the government to spend 1.6 percent less on energy subsidies in 2015. Originally the government allocated IDR 363.5 trillion (USD $30.4 billion) for energy subsidies (which involves fuel and electricity subsidies) in 2015, up from IDR 350.3 trillion (USD $29.3 billion) in 2014. This would be good news for president-elect Joko "Jokowi" Widodo as he would imply have more fiscal room for his reform programs.

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On 21 September 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such Indonesia’s fuel subsidies, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, the IPO of Blue Bird, August car sales, foreign investments in the insurance sector, a palm oil update, the current account deficit, and more.

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International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade). Baradita Katoppo, President Director of Indonesia’s Fitch Ratings branch, said that the firm is positive about the country’s financial fundamentals and prudent fiscal policy as the central bank has showed to prefer stability over growth, resulting in slowing credit growth and rising foreign exchange reserves in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Economic growth is expected to fall to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014.

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Last week, Indonesian President Joko Widodo introduced higher subsidized fuel prices in Southeast Asia’s largest economy in a bid to shift generous public spending from fuel consumption to productive and structural economic and social development. Prices of subsidized low-octane gasoline (premium) and diesel (solar) were raised by over 30 percent, or IDR 2,000 (USD $0.17) per liter, starting from 00:00 on Tuesday (18/11). Widodo aims to reallocate these funds to infrastructure, social welfare and the maritime sector.

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Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (better known as Ahok) has been inaugurated as the 17th Governor of Jakarta by Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Wednesday (19/11) The position of Jakarta Governor was previously empty as former Governor Widodo stepped down from this position to focus on a (successful) presidential campaign. Although by law the Deputy Governor (Ahok) automatically becomes the new Governor, this has met fierce resistance from certain sides as Ahok is an ethnic Chinese Christian. This news article is the updated version of an article that was first published on 18 November 2014

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A total of 35 American companies are interested to invest a combined USD $61 billion in Indonesia over the next five years according to a survey conducted by the Paramadina Public Policy Institute, the American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia (AmCham Indonesia), the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), and the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia). These 35 US companies have already invested a total of USD $65 billion in Indonesia over the period 2004 to 2012.

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Amid mostly gaining stock markets in Southeast Asia on Tuesday (11/11), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rebounded sharply after several days of declines. Most Indonesian blue chip stocks rose considerably after having tumbled in recent days. Positive market sentiments were caused by Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo’s participation in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Beijing as well as news that both camps in Indonesian parliament have agreed to work together.

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After Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have confirmed that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) will be raised in November 2014 in an attempt to ease the country’s wide current account deficit and government budget deficit (which are primarily caused by costly oil imports), domestic car manufacturers and dealers are expected to post declining earnings in 2015. Besides the subsidized fuel price issue, Indonesia’s car industry is also negatively impacted by the country’s slowing economic growth.

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President Joko Widodo’s unexpected visit to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/10) signals that the new president of Indonesia is serious about wiping out severe bureaucracy that causes time-consuming and difficult procedures to obtain permits, licenses and certificates in a bid to ease doing business in Indonesia for both foreign and domestic investors. Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is eager to tackle the country’s ‘red-tape’ problem as it curtails the pace of economic growth in Indonesia.

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The market showed today (27/10) that the composition of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s cabinet did not live up to expectations. On Sunday afternoon, Widodo had announced the names of the ministers inside his Working Cabinet (Kabinet Kerja) after having delayed the announcement for almost a week as several of his ministerial candidates needed to be replaced having been red flagged by the country’s Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). This then heightened expectations that Widodo’s cabinet would constitute a ‘dream team’.

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It was a good start of the week for the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG). Various factors, both internal and external, managed to push the index higher on Monday (20/10). Externally, the IHSG was supported by positive Asian indices which responded to last week’s good US economic data (building permits, housing starts, and consumer sentiment). Moreover, the sharply appreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate made Indonesian assets more attractive.

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Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?

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