While car sales are showing a rebound in Indonesia, motorcycle sales continue to decline. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), motorcycle sales in Southeast Asia's largest economy fell 15.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 473,896 units in March 2017 from 563,341 units in the same month one year earlier. AISI Chairman Sigit Kumala says Indonesian consumers continue to postpone the purchase of a motorcycle amid weak consumer purchasing power.

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Indonesia's domestic motorcycle sales rose 13.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 473,879 units in January 2017, from 416,263 units in the same month one year earlier. This growth is attributed to Indonesians' improving purchasing power supported by recovering commodity prices, particularly coal and crude palm oil (CPO). Gunadi Sindhuwinata, General Chairman of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), is optimistic that Indonesia's motorcycle sales will rebound in 2017 - after two years of slowdown - on the back of accelerating economic growth and rising commodity prices.

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Indonesia has the biggest motorcycle market within the ASEAN region. It is estimated that Indonesia accounts for 70 percent of total motorcycle sales in ASEAN. This implies that the slowdown in Indonesia's motorcycle sales has a big impact on overall sales in the region. Based on data from the ASEAN Automotive Federation (AAF), total motorcycle sales in ASEAN in the first ten months of 2016 fell 1.2 percent to 7.91 million from sales in the same period one year earlier.

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The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) expects Indonesia's motorcycle sales to rebound in 2017. Based on the latest estimates, sales of two-wheelers will rise 10 percent (y/y) to 6.6 million next year from an estimated 6 million vehicles in 2016. This year sales are expected to drop slightly over 7 percent (y/y) compared to 6.48 million sold motorcycles in 2015. AISI Chairman Gunadi Sindhuwinata said there are several reasons that should cause rebounding motorcycle sales next year.

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Indonesia's motorcycle sales fell 10 percent (y/y) to 4.35 million in the first three quarters of 2016 from 4.82 million motorcycle units in the same period one year earlier. Meanwhile, in the month September 2016 a total of 555,820 motorcycles were sold in Indonesia, down 8 percent (y/y) from sales in the same month one year earlier. Gunadi Sindhuwinata, Chairman of the Indonesian Motorcycle Manufacturers Association (AISI), informed that Indonesia's motorcycle sales have still not returned to normal levels in 2016.

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The Transportation Ministry of Indonesia predicts that there will be around 18 million people traveling back to their places of origin ahead of this year's Idul Fitri celebrations (the days that mark the end of the Ramadan fasting month). This prediction is 3.3 percent higher than the flow of people during last year's Idul Fitri (17.4 million). The annual exodus of Indonesian workers and professionals from the cities back to their hometowns - to spend some days with their parents - ahead of Idul Fitri (Lebaran) is called mudik in Indonesian.

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Sales of tires in Indonesia are expected to remain bleak in 2016. Azis Pane, Chairman of the Indonesian Tire Companies Association (APBI), said sales of tires this year may only reach 8.5 million units (roughly the same sales figure as in the preceding year), while exports of Indonesian-made tires may fall to 30 million units (from a "normal" figure of 45 million). Domestic tire sales are highly dependent on the nation's car and motorcycle sales. Indonesia's February motorcycle sales declined 5.6 percent (y/y) to 524,864 units in February 2016, after a 17.2 percent (y/y) plunge in the preceding month.

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Indonesian motorcycle exports have grown by a whopping 87 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 27,066 units in February 2016 from 14,433 units in the same month one year earlier. Sigit Kumala, Chairman of the commercial department of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), said this solid performance occurred on the back of the market expansion strategy applied by Indonesian motorcycle manufacturers. He added that Indonesia's export performance (in terms of motorcycle sales) has been improving since the second half of 2016.

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Indonesian motorcycle sales declined 8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 535,682 units in November 2015 from 582,331 units in the same month last year. In the first 11 months of 2015, Indonesian motorcycle sales stand at a total of 5.6 million units, down 18.5 percent (y/y) from sales in the same period last year, reflecting weakened purchasing power in Southeast Asia's largest economy amid the economic slowdown, weak commodity prices, and high inflation during the first three quarters of the year. The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) expects to see 6.3 million sold motorcycle units in full-year 2015.

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Amid Indonesia’s economic slowdown, the country’s motorcycle sales are most likely to decline in 2015. In the first eight months of 2015 a total of 4,218,089 motorcycles were sold in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, down 21.1 percent (year-on-year) from the same period last year. However, there is one positive fact regarding Indonesia’s motorcycle sales. In August 2015, a total of 622,089 motorcycle units were sold, the highest monthly sales figure since October 2014 and the first monthly growth after seven straight months of decline.

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Along with the increasing purchasing power of Indonesian people, purchases of motor vehicles (such as motorcycles and cars) in Indonesia, continue to grow. However, based on data from the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), motorcycle sales fell by 12 percent in 2012, from 8.01 million units in 2011 to 7.06 million units in 2012. One reason behind this fall was the implementation of new government policy regarding down payment requirements (which have been imposed on vehicle loans since mid-2012).

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Astra International, Indonesia's largest listed company by market capitalization, presented its Q1-2013 financial results yesterday. The company, which represents the dominating force in Indonesia's automotive sector, posted a seven percent fall in net earnings (YoY) to IDR 4,310 trillion (USD $444.3 million) amid Indonesia's rising labour costs, weak commodity prices, increased competition in the country's car sector and effects of new minimum down-payment regulations in automotive Shariah-financing.

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The heavily subsidized fuel price of Indonesia is likely to be raised next month according to Indonesian media sources. Various high officials, including Economic minister Hatta Rajasa, discussed the possibility to raise the fuel price from IDR 4,500 (USD $0.46) to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.67) per liter starting from May. This increase will only apply to private passenger cars, and not to motorcycles and public transportation. However, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has not made up his mind yet.

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