Indonesia's current account balance is expected to show a deficit for the next five years. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) does not rule out a surplus within that period but it would require some serious work in terms of structural reform-making. Indonesia started to record current account deficits in late-2011 due to the ballooning oil import bill (before the government slashed energy subsidies) and weak commodity prices after 2011.

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Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) is convinced that the nation's current account deficit (CAD) will not exceed 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017. In the second quarter of 2017 the CAD widened to 1.96 percent of GDP (or USD $5 billion), from 0.98 percent of GDP in the preceding quarter (or USD $2.4 billion).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's current account deficit (CAD) to widen to 2.4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), or about USD $23 billion, in 2017. Therefore, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the CAD remains one of the bigger challenges for Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In 2016 the nation's CAD had in fact eased to 1.8 percent of GDP (or USD $17 billion) on the back of a big improvement in the last quarter of 2016.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the nation's current account deficit to widen to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 due to expectation of rising imports in Indonesia this year. These rising imports come on the back of growing investment realization in Southeast Asia's largest economy. This projection is significantly higher compared to the estimated USD $17 billion, or 1.8 percent of GDP, current account deficit in 2016.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the nation's current account deficit (CAD) eased to 1.83 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2016, improving from a revised 2.2 percent of GDP deficit in the preceding quarter. Bank Indonesia further informed that the CAD will most likely remain in the range of 2.0 - 2.5 percent of GDP in full-year 2016. In 2015 Indonesia's CAD eased to 2.1 percent of GDP. Since late-2011 Southeast Asia's largest economy has had to cope with a wide current account deficit.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's current account deficit to have improved to below 2 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2016. This is good news as a wide (and structural) current account deficit is considered a financial weakness because it means the country is building up liabilities to the rest of the world. Ever since late-2011 Indonesia has been suffering a wide current account deficit. This is particularly attributed to the globe's low commodity prices after 2011.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, expects the country's current account deficit to increase to USD $4.8 billion - or about 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) - in full-year 2016. Although the deficit remains high - and is forecast to go higher - there is optimism that this increase is caused by rising imports of capital goods and raw materials. These goods and materials are used to manufacture new products (that may be exported from Indonesia) and therefore have a positive impact on the economy (in contrast to consumer product imports that bring few future economic value).

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On 15 May 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's Q1-2016 balance of payments, current account deficit and government revenue as well as matters such as Indonesia's credit rating, the Tax Amnesty Bill, Indonesian links to the Panama Papers, and much more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 6.75 percent at the April policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations. During the three policy meetings conducted in the January-March 2016 period Bank Indonesia had already cut its BI rate by a combined 75 basis points as inflation and the current account deficit are under control, while the Indonesian rupiah has been strengthening against the US dollar since the start of 2016. Last week, Bank Indonesia announced it will adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) to replace the existing BI rate as the bank's key monetary tool.

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Indonesia's current account deficit is expected to rise to USD $26 billion, or 2.6 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), in 2016. This increase is expected because rising investment and infrastructure development in Indonesia will require more imports from abroad. In 2015 Indonesia's current account deficit was recorded at USD $17.8 billion (2.06 percent of GDP), improving from a USD $27.5 billion deficit (3.09 percent of GDP) in the preceding year (when Indonesia touched a record high current account deficit, and which seriously undermined investors' confidence in the nation's assets).

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the April 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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While most emerging Asian currencies fell, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.08 percent to IDR 11,523 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (12/05). The depreciating Chinese yuan, after its central bank set the midrate at its lowest level in eight months, put pressure on other Asian currencies. Today, Indonesia's Finance Ministry sold IDR 10 trillion rupiah (USD $867 million) of bonds, higher than the indicative target of IDR 8 trillion rupiah. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s two-year bonds gained.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided at today’s Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting, convened on 8 May 2014, to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with efforts to steer the rate of inflation towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced on Monday (05/05) that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.21 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2014 (considerably below analysts' projections of around 5.6 percent), concerns have risen about the country's economic expansion for the remainder of the year. The government of Indonesia targets a GDP growth rate of between 5.8 and 6.0 percent (yoy). However, several international institutions do not agree with this optimistic target.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's economic growth in 2015 is targeted in the range of 5.5 to 6.3 percent. Amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible interest rate hikes in the world's largest economy, chances of capital outflows from emerging markets (including Indonesia) are becoming larger. Basri said that these global conditions impact on GDP growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, 2015 is a transition year, reflected by tighter economic projections and state spending.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that the country's inflation outcome in April 2014 is further evidence of a continuing downward trend. In fact, Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) in April recorded deflation of -0.02 percent month-to-month (mtm) or 7.25 percent year-on-year (yoy), thus easing compared to 0.08 percent (mtm) of inflation or 7.32 percent (yoy) in March 2014. Since January 2014, Indonesia has now recorded moderating inflation, both on a monthly and annual basis.

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Indonesia’s HSBC Markit Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) showed a reading of 51.1 in April 2014, significantly up from 50.1 in the previous month, meaning that manufacturing activity in Indonesia has grown (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). In fact, amid improved economic conditions as well as strong demand, manufacturing activity in Southeast Asia’s largest economy expanded at the fastest pace in 11 months.

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On the first trading day of the week (Monday 28 April 2014), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 11,587 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Several factors - both internal and external - influenced the rupiah as well as Indonesian stocks in a negative way. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) declined a whopping 1.61 percent to 4,818.76 points, in line with the regional trend in Asia today.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate ended the week with a 0.32 percent gain to IDR 11,565 per US dollar on Friday (25/04) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Despite still high local demand for US dollars ahead of the month-end (for reasons of profit repatriation, imports and debt repayments), the rupiah managed to appreciate as (foreign and domestic) investments in Indonesia were reported to have reached a new record at IDR 106.6 trillion (USD $9.4 billion) in the first quarter of 2014.

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Mostly declining Asian stock indices, led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite, had a negative influence on the performance of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Wednesday (23/04). Moreover, today's sharp rupiah depreciation contributed to the 0.10 percent decline to 4,893.15 points. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.94 percent to 11,630 per US dollar.

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