As expected, credit growth in Indonesia slowed in 2015 amid the nation's overall economic slowdown. Loan growth was particularly affected by weaker demand for property and working capital loans. Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015 is estimated to have slowed to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the country's slowest growth pace since 2009. In its January policy meeting Bank Indonesia decided to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent, a move that should encourage loan growth this year in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Indonesia-based property developer HK Realtindo, subsidiary of state-owned firm Hutama Karya, plans to release a 30 percent stake through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the fourth quarter of 2016. Funds generated through the IPO will be used for further business expansion. The company eyes 30 new projects in 2016, including the Trans Sumatra toll road. The company also plans to issue IDR 500 billion (approx. USD $36 million) in bonds and IDR 250 billion in medium term notes.

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Through the revision of an existing regulation the Indonesian government aims to support growth in the nation's property sector. The revision involves a tax incentive that allows Indonesia's first-time home buyers to obtain a subsidized lending rate (mortgage). Those first-time home buyers who have a maximum monthly income of IDR 7 million (approx. USD $504) are eligible to enjoy this incentive that falls under the Housing Loan Liquidity Facility (Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan, abbreviated FLPP).

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Indonesia's Cabinet Secretary announced on Tuesday (12/01) that Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed a government regulation on 22 December 2015 (Government Regulation No. 103/2015 on House Ownership of Foreigners Residing in Indonesia) that allows foreigners to own landed houses in Indonesia for a period up to 80 years. This regulation is designed by the Indonesian government in order to provide more legal certainty to foreigners regarding property ownership.

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Cement sales in Indonesia climbed 4.7 percent (y/y) to 6.1 million tons in November 2015 supported by rising cement sales in all regions apart from the Moluccas and Papua. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said domestic cement demand rose sharply in November despite seeing some rainfall (which usually leads to delays in development of infrastructure and other construction projects). Santoso says this rise is due to improved government spending on infrastructure projects.

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New York-based credit rating firm Moody’s Investors Service expects global economic factors to have less of a negative impact on Indonesian companies in 2016. In its latest report titled "Non-Financial Corporates - Indonesia: 2016 Outlook - Corporate Profits under Pressure but Likely to Stabilize" it states that amid stabilizing economic growth and the recently unveiled government stimulus packages, companies should manage to improve their corporate performances in 2016.

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In its latest Indonesia Property Watch report, Fitch Ratings states that housing demand in Indonesia remained weak in the third quarter of 2015, leading to property developers' decision to postpone a number of new projects. Low commodity prices and high inflation (up to Q3-2015) led to sluggish demand and tepid economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Fitch Ratings said residential property price growth in Indonesia continued to slow for the eight consecutive quarter and believes prices are to remain muted in the coming year.

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The launch of the clusters Amanda and Btari - consisting of 400 residential housing units - in the Summarecon Bandung project was well received by the market last week. Within five hours all units were sold. The Summarecon Bandung project is an ambitious integrated city which includes residential areas, commercial areas and mixed-use areas in the Southeastern part of Bandung (West Java). The company behind this project is publicly-listed Summarecon Agung, an Indonesian real estate construction and development company.

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Global credit agency Fitch Ratings stated in its latest Indonesia Property Watch report that demand in Indonesia's property sector will not improve in the short-term. Whereas the Indonesian government implemented policies to cool the property market in 2013 (as authorities were concerned about the emergence of a bubble), it has recently shifted its stance and implemented measures to boost the market amid the country's economic slowdown. However, Fitch Ratings does not expect a quick rebound.

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The amount of empty office space in Jakarta's central business district (CBD) has grown as supply outpaces demand, while business activity in Indonesia has slowed amid the ongoing economic slowdown of Southeast Asia's largest economy. Since 2011 Indonesia's GDP growth has been slowing due to sluggish global growth and low commodity prices. According to information from Savills Consultants Indonesia, unit of London-listed global real estate service provider Savills Plc, the office space vacancy rate in Jakarta grew from 4.8 percent in 2014 to 8.4 percent in mid-2015.

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Mega Manunggal Property, an Indonesia-based logistics property company that is primarily focused on the development and provision of logistics facilities related to warehouses and office buildings, is expected to see rising net income and revenue in the years ahead supported by growing demand for modern warehouses, logistics services, enhanced operational efficiency, and an increase in rental prices. Mega Manunggal Property is part of the Argo Manunggal Group, a group that is active in various sectors including textile, steel, property, mining, and insurance.

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With the Indonesian government showing its commitment to push for infrastructure development, the property sector of Indonesia is expected to get a boost as infrastructure development opens access to new areas. For example, Indonesia's first high-speed train project that is to connect Jakarta and Bandung (in West Java) is expected to give rise to new economic centers and cities along the 142 kilometers-long railway. Moreover, existing property in the proximity of a new infrastructure project should lead to significantly rising property prices.

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Corporate earnings of Indonesian state-controlled construction and investment company Pembangunan Perumahan (abbreviated PP) are in line with analysts' forecasts. In the first quarter of 2016, PP's revenue rose 30.6 percent (y/y) to IDR 2.58 trillion (approx. USD $195 million), while net profit rose 5 percent (y/y) to IDR 98 billion (approx. USD $7.4 million) from the same quarter one year earlier. These figures indicate the company experienced a solid start of the year.

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Foreigners (expats) can buy a landed house or apartment in Indonesia (under the so-called 'right-of-use' category, locally known as hak pakai, which is weaker than the ‘right-of-ownership’ category or hak milik). However, the government set various requirements (including a minimum price). A new regulation stipulates a foreigner is not allowed to rent out his Indonesian property to other parties (authorities have the right to scrap the foreigner's 'right-of-use' title if he breaches this prohibition). Ferry Mursyidan Baldan, Indonesia's Agrarian and Spatial Planning Minister, provided an update on the issue of 'foreign property ownership in Indonesia'.

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The Indonesian Consumer Protection Foundation (YLKI) advises investors and consumers not to purchase property (yet) on the artificial islands that form part of the grand USD $40 billion land reclamation project (National Capital Integrated Coastal Development, abbreviated NCICD, also known as the Giant Sea Wall) off the coast of North Jakarta. Most property developers - including Agung Podomoro Land - have already started to advertise (and sell) property units on these islands despite these developers are yet to obtain all necessary permits.

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One of Indonesia's largest listed property developers - Agung Podomoro Land - saw its shares plunge 10 percent on Monday (04/04) after the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), the country's anti-graft agency, named the company's President Director Ariesman Widjaja a suspect in a bribery case that also involves a Jakarta legislator. Allegedly, Muhammad Sanusi, legislator of the Jakarta provincial assembly and member of Prabowo Subianto's Great Indonesia Party (Gerindra), accepted money in exchange for support related to the Pluit City project.

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The decision of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), last week, to cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 0.25 percent to 7.00 percent and to cut the reserve-requirement ratio for commercial banks' rupiah deposits by 1 percent to 6.5 percent is a decision that should boost household consumption in Indonesia in 2016, improve people's purchasing power, give rise to a stronger automotive and property sector, and boost liquidity at local banks (hence providing room for an acceleration of credit growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy).

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Utilization of Indonesia's installed ceramic production capacity fell from 92 percent in 2014 to 62 percent in 2015, while the country's ceramic sales plunged 28.6 percent (y/y) to 350 million square meters over the same period. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said ceramic sales have fallen over the past two years due to slowing economic growth and the sluggish property sector. Sales are expected to remain stagnant in 2016.

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As cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise nearly 10 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in 2016 on the back of government-led infrastructure development, investment growth and accelerating GDP growth, three cement producers are set to benefit. The three market leaders in Indonesia's cement industry that should see higher sales are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia.

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Indonesian real estate developer Bumi Serpong Damai could be one of the country's property developers that benefits the most from an improving Indonesian economy in 2016 due to the firm's availability of land reserves in a number of regions. Purchasing power is expected to accelerate, authorities eager to boost mortgage lending, a possible BI rate cut somewhere in 2016, while many - among the young and large population - will buy their first house or apartment in the next couple of years.

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