One of Indonesia's main fiscal problems is the ever increasing amount of public funds spent on energy subsidies (these include fuels and electricity subsidies). These subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society but several studies conclude that it are in fact the middle class and elite segments that benefit the most of these energy subsidies. Furthermore, by keeping energy prices artificially low, the government distorts the economy by creating a more-or-less 'false economy'.

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Pertamina Hulu Energi, subsidiary of state-owned energy firm Pertamina, has been officially appointed as the new operator of the Siak oil block in Riau (Sumatra) after the contract of Chevron Siak Indonesia (CSI) had expired on 27 November 2013. The Indonesian government decided not to renew the production sharing contract (PSC) with Chevron, instead appointing Pertamina Hulu Energi as new operator of the oil block (in line with the government's aim to have more domestic control over the country's natural resources).

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The government of Indonesia will tender a crude oil refinery construction project in mid April 2014. The oil refinery will be located in Bontang (East Kalimantan) and the project is based on the public-private partnership (PPP) scheme. Susilo Siswoutomo, Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the government is currently engaged in formulating procedures for submission of the tender bid. The Finance Ministry and Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) are also involved in formulating the terms of reference.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of Elnusa, an integrated upstream oil and gas company. Core business of Elnusa, which is part of the state-owned Pertamina Group, involves geoscience, drilling and oilfield services. As the company is closely connected to the Indonesian government, it would benefit of the government's commitment to increase oil lifting. However, the current condition of Indonesia's oil and gas sector is still not conducive for large investments. Elnusa is listed as ELSA on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

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SKK Migas, Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator, announced that oil production in 2013 averaged 825,000 barrels per day (bpd), thus falling short of the target (840,000 bps) set in the State Budget (APBN). Meanwhile, the country's gas production averaged 1,218,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), short of its target (1,240,000 boepd). As a result, total state revenues from the country's oil & gas sector also fell short of the government's target. In 2013, these revenues totaled USD $31.4 billion instead of USD $31.7 billion.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesia rupiah exchange rate in combination with the inability to raise domestic production of crude oil threatens to balloon government subsidy expenditure. Fuel subsidies may increase 20 percent to IDR 252 trillion (USD $20.8 billion) in 2014 as the rupiah currently has about 14 percent less value (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index) than the value assumed in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). The government assumed a rupiah rate of IDR 10,500 per US dollar in the APBN 2014.

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Deputy Trade Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi said that the Indonesian government is preparing two strategic steps to anticipate the negative impact of the winding down of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. In January 2014, the Fed's bond-buying program will be reduced from USD $85 billion to USD $75 billion per month. The two strategic steps, which will enhance financial stability in Southeast Asia's largest economy, involve the curtailing of Indonesia's current account deficit and high inflation.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has released the latest edition of its report, titled Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2013, this week. The report aims to identify policy, social, infrastructure, and technology issues that should be addressed to meet the future energy needs of members of the ADB in Asia and the Pacific. Key findings in the case of Indonesia include that the country's primary energy demand is projected to reach 445.4 Mtoe in 2035, up from 207.8 Mtoe in 2010 and that it may become a net importer of natural gas.

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Indonesia is expected to replace the United States as the world's largest importer of oil by 2018, unless the country is able to limit domestic oil consumption or boost the nation's oil production. Recently, Indonesia has put more effort in limiting oil imports as these have caused a widening trade deficit. The trade deficit was at a new record high at USD $5.65 billion in the first seven months of 2013, particularly caused by the country's oil & gas deficit (USD $7.6 billion), while the non-oil & gas sector posted a surplus of USD $1.9 billion.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of AKR Corporindo (AKRA), Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and largest private sector distributor of petroleum and basic chemicals. Apart from trading and distribution, the company is also engaged in other business lines, i.e. logistic services, manufacturing, as well as coal mining and trading. In the first six months of 2013, AKRA recorded a 17.9 percent jump in profit to IDR 350.9 billion (USD $31.9 million) compared to the same period last year.

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Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.

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Despite Hong Kong’s falling Hang Seng Index (HSI), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) managed to climb 0.69 percent to 4,878.58 points on Monday (30/06). A number of reasons can be cited that positively influenced the performance of the IHSG. These are higher US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, positive forecasts for tomorrow’s release of June inflation and the May trade balance of Indonesia, declining global oil prices and the appreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is appreciating sharply on Monday (30/06). By 15:13pm local Jakarta time, the currency of Indonesia had strengthened 1.31 percent to IDR 11,838 against the US dollar. Main factors that cause this performance are the weakening US dollar (as a slowdown in the US economic recovery evokes expectations that the Fed Rate will not be raised soon) and falling oil prices; the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate declined 30 cents to USD $105.44 in mid-morning trade while Brent crude fell 22 cents to USD $113.08.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,099 per US dollar on Thursday (26/06) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, thus extending its recent weakening trend. This trend is expected to continue further as Bank Indonesia said it would allow rupiah depreciation in order to make the country’s exports more competitive (in an attempt to curb the current account deficit). However, this also dampens demand for Indonesian bonds. The 10-year yield rose to the highest level since February 2014.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably on Wednesday (25/06) after Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) said it would allow rupiah depreciation in an attempt to boost competitiveness of the country’s exports, while curbing imports. This strategy will have a positive impact on the country’s troubled trade balance. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had weakened 0.67 percent to IDR 12,070 per US dollar by 14:30pm local Jakarta time.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,992 per US dollar on Monday (23/06) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, thus extending the currency’s recent depreciating trend. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (known as the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, or, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 11,971 against the greenback. What were the factors that influenced the rupiah’s performance today?

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 0.34 percent to 4,847.70 points on Friday (20/06). Trade was thin on this week’s last trading day with only about 3.4 billion shares - valued at IDR 3.8 trillion (USD $319 million) - being traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (well below the average daily value of IDR 6.1 trillion). Foreign investors accounted for 48 percent of total trading, recording net buying worth of IDR 31.3 billion (USD $2.6 million).

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After the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate temporarily surpassed the psychological boundary of IDR 12,000 per US dollar on Wednesday (18/06), concerns about the fundamentals of the currency emerged. The currency has been under pressure recently due to external factors (monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in Iraq) and domestic factors (large private debt, significant US dollar demand, the wide trade deficit and political uncertainty ahead of the presidential election).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.62 percent to IDR 11,893 per US dollar on Tuesday (17/06), a four-month low. The main reason behind this poor performance is increased concern about the impact of violence in northern Iraq - namely higher global oil prices - on Indonesia’s trade and budget deficits as Indonesia subsidises a significant amount of domestic fuels). As oil and gas imports accounted for about 23 percent of total imports of Indonesia in April 2014.

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In the past week, the global crude oil price has increased considerably due to geopolitical tensions in Iraq which can disturb oil supplies from the Middle East. Up to the end of 2014, provided that no exceptional developments occur, the oil price is expected to range between USD $105-110 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government announced that, despite the higher oil price putting pressure on the government’s budget balance, it will not increase prices of subsidized fuels this year.

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