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Today's Headlines Oil & Gas
The latest research report of Indonesia Investments focuses on the energy sector of Indonesia. The energy sector is a crucial sector because without energy it is impossible to pursue economic and social development.
Indonesia's national crude oil output remains dominated by a select group of companies. The five biggest oil producers in Indonesia - who together account for 73.34 percent of the nation's total oil production - are Chevron Pacific Indonesia, ExxonMobil, Pertamina EP, Pertamina Hulu Mahakam, and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).
SKK Migas, the government's special taskforce for upstream oil and gas business activities in Indonesia, said direct investment in the country's upstream oil and gas sector reached USD $1.8 billion by the end of February 2018 (equivalent to around 13.84 percent of SKK Migas' full-year 2018 investment target in the country's oil and gas sector).
Net profit of Indonesia's fully state-owned oil & gas company Pertamina is estimated to have declined to around IDR 27 trillion (approx. USD $2.0 billion) in full-year 2017, down about 35 percent (y/y) from USD $3.1 billion in the preceding year. The decline is attributed to rising crude oil prices and the government's refusal to adjust subsidized fuel prices.
Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise Energy Regulation No. 8/2017 on the gross split scheme. It was decided to revise this relatively new regulation after an evaluation was conducted that included input from oil and gas contractors. Deputy Energy Minister Arcandra Tahar announced the revision earlier this week.
Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignatius Jonan hopes to see oil production at the Banyu Urip Field, part of the Cepu Block in East Java, rise to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), a development that would also trigger the multiplier effect for the region, he added. The Banyu Urip Field is the key oil field in Indonesia as it accounts for about 25 percent of Indonesia's total crude oil output.
The upstream oil and gas industry of Indonesia is plagued by companies' lack of interest in exploration amid low crude oil prices, their eagerness to focus on efficiency strategies, and Indonesia's difficult investment climate. At the 41st Indonesian Petroleum Association Convention and Exhibition in the Jakarta Convention Center on Wednesday (17/05) Christina Verchere, President Director of the Indonesia Petroleum Association (IPA), said low oil prices have been the main reason for reduced investment in oil and gas exploration since 2014.
Investment in Indonesia's oil and gas sector remained bleak in the first quarter of 2017. The key reason why oil and gas companies are still reluctant to invest in any exploration and expansion projects is the low crude oil price that remains below the USD $50 per barrel level. In Q1-2017 investment in Indonesia's oil and gas sector fell 4.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $2.57 billion. Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator SKK Migas targets to attract a total of USD $12.87 billion worth of investment in the oil and gas sector in 2017.
The government of Indonesia appointed state-owned energy company Pertamina to operate eight oil & gas blocks after contracts with existing operators expire in 2018. Indonesia's new gross profit sharing scheme, which replaced the nation's cost recovery scheme, will be applied to the new contracts in 2018. Under the gross profit sharing scheme the Indonesian government and contractors agree up front on the proportion for splitting gross profit from oil and gas exploration (implying that all exploration and production costs are now borne by the operator).
The government of Indonesia is confident that the new gross profit sharing mechanism that is set to replace the cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry in early 2017 is a fairer system for both the oil & gas contractor and the government. Earlier this month, Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry announced this change in course. However, the new gross profit sharing mechanism in the oil and gas industry will only be applied to new contracts starting from early 2017.
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Indonesia’s state-owned energy company Pertamina and local governments will become the new operators of the Mahakam oil and gas block (located offshore in East Kalimantan) after existing contracts of current operators end on 31 December 2017. The Indonesian government announced on Friday (19/06) that it is to grant Pertamina a 70 percent stake in the Mahakam block, Indonesia’s largest oil and gas block. The current operators of the block are French oil giant Total SA and Japan-based oil firm Inpex Corp, each owning a 50 percent stake.
Indonesia’s crude oil production is expected to increase starting from mid-March 2015 as new oil fields will start to come online this month, including the Bukit Tua oil field (part of the Ketapang block in East Java and which is operated by Petronas Carigali). Over the past two decades Indonesia oil output has declined drastically amid maturing oil fields and the lack of exploration as well as other investments in Indonesia’s oil & gas sector. In 2014, Indonesia produced an average of 794,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).
The trade balance of Indonesia improved in 2014. Over the whole year of 2014 Indonesia posted a USD $1.88 billion trade deficit, significantly better than the USD $4.08 billion deficit it recorded a year earlier. Today (02/02), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia posted a USD $0.19 billion trade surplus in the last month of the year after having recorded a USD $0.42 billion trade deficit in the preceding month. The improved performance is mainly due to the country’s growing non-oil & gas surplus and narrowing oil & gas deficit.
Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.
After having recorded a trade deficit for several months, Indonesia finally posted a USD $20 million trade surplus in October 2014, according to data from the country’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday (01/12). Exports in October amounted to USD $15.35 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $15.33 billion. The improvement in Indonesia’s trade balance was mainly on the back of growth in the country’s non-oil & gas sector exports. This sector saw a surplus of USD $1.13 billion (up from USD $760 million in September).
The current account deficit of Indonesia eased to USD $6.84 billion, or 3.07 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014 (down from USD $8.69 billion, or 4.07 percent of GDP in the previous quarter). This improvement was mainly supported by a solid surplus in the country’s non-oil & gas sector, partly the result of the US economic recovery as well as resumed copper concentrate exports by Freeport Indonesia and Newmont Nusa Tenggara (after successful mining contract renegotiations).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released a press statement on Wednesday evening (01/10) in which it set out its view on the country’s trade balance and inflation after the latest economic data had been released by Statistics Indonesia (abbreviated BPS) earlier on the day. Based on information of BPS, Indonesia’s September inflation was relatively low at 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), while the August trade balance swung back into a deficit at USD $318.1 million.
Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?
According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).
Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.
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