In rupiah terms, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia increased by 19.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 365.9 trillion in 2015, according to the latest data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). The BKPM, the central government's investment services agency, said FDI was strong in the fourth quarter of 2015 - rising 26 percent (y/y) - on the back of the government's recently unveiled series of economic stimulus packages.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the central government's investment services agency, targets to see a 15 percent growth to IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $43 billion) in investment realization in 2016 supported by an improving investment climate in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Franky Sibarani, Head of the BKPM, said the government is particularly eager to see sharp growth in investment realization in the country's manufacturing sector, in infrastructure, services and trade, and in the raw resources industry.

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The latest survey from Nikkei showed that Indonesia's manufacturing sector contracted for the 15th straight month. In the last month of 2015 factory activity in Indonesia showed a reading of 47.8, improving from a reading of 46.9 in November but remaining stubbornly below the 50.0 level that separates contraction from expansion. Since October 2014 Indonesia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has been in contraction.

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The food sector is one of the sectors within Indonesia's manufacturing industry that continues to lure foreign investors. This statement is based on the latest report of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the investment services agency of the Indonesian government, released in late December. The agency notes that applications by investors for principle licenses in the food sector in the period 1 January to 28 December 2015 were worth a total of IDR 184.9 trillion (approx. USD $13.5 billion).

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Indonesia's Ministry of Industry is optimistic that the country's manufacturing industry will grow 5.7 percent (year-on-year) in 2016, up from the estimated 5.3 percent growth pace this year. Indonesian Minister Saleh Husin said this optimism is based on higher domestic direct investment. Domestic investment realization in Indonesia's industry sector rose 7.45 percent (y/y) to IDR 20.1 trillion (approx. USD $1.5 billion) in the third quarter of 2015 from IDR 18.7 trillion in the same quarter last year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia's industry sector stood at USD $3.15 billion in Q3-2015.

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In line with estimates, Indonesia posted 0.08 percent (m/m) deflation in October 2015. Deflation was primarily caused by lower food prices in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Annual inflation eased to 6.25 percent (y/y) and is expected to ease more markedly in the last two months of the year as the impact of last year November's subsidized fuel price hike will be swept away from inflation figures. Indonesia's core inflation - which excludes volatile food and administered prices - was 5.02 percent (y/y) in October.

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On 4 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government and Bank Indonesia’s new economic policy package, an update of inflation and manufacturing activity, US interest rates the impact of El Nino on coffee and palm oil production, and much more.

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In Indonesian media more and more (unofficial) information circulates about the third installment of the government's economic policy package. This third installment, which is expected to be unveiled next week by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, involves lowering prices of gas, diesel and electricity (for industries) to avert more layoffs in Indonesia's manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the government may lower lending rates (by cutting unnecessary costs) in order to boost credit expansion in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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For the 12th consecutive month Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted as output and new orders declined. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 47.4 in September 2015 from 48.4 in the preceding month and below analysts' forecasts (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion). September's contraction was the second-fastest drop in Indonesia's manufacturing activity since the index was started in early 2012.

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The second installment of Indonesia's September economic policy package, unveiled on Tuesday (29/09), received a warmer response from market participants compared to the first one (released on 9 September), evidenced by rebounding stocks and a stronger rupiah rate yesterday. Indonesia's latest policy package involves interest rate tax cuts for exporters, the speeding up of investment licensing for investment in industrial estates, and a relaxation of taxes on imports of capital goods in industrial estates and in the aviation industry.

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Although the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.86 percent to IDR 11,995 per US dollar on Friday (27/06) as economic data from China, South Korea and Taiwan sparked optimism that regional growth has picked up, the recent depreciating trend of Indonesia’s currency burdens the country’s manufacturing industry. This industry is still dependent on imports of raw materials, capital goods and auxiliary materials, which are paid using US dollars causing the domestic industry to feel the financial impact of a weaker rupiah.

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Indonesia’s HSBC Markit Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) showed a reading of 51.1 in April 2014, significantly up from 50.1 in the previous month, meaning that manufacturing activity in Indonesia has grown (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). In fact, amid improved economic conditions as well as strong demand, manufacturing activity in Southeast Asia’s largest economy expanded at the fastest pace in 11 months.

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Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.

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It seems clear now how market conditions will be until the end of the year. Two important foreign issues - the US Federal Reserve's tapering of quantitative easing (QE3) as well as the US debt ceiling issue which resulted in a shutdown as the Democrats and Republicans failed to come to an agreement on the country's federal budget - and various economic data from Indonesia (inflation and the trade balance) have provided some more insight into the matter. I will discuss each topic one by one below.

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HSBC's latest release of the Indonesia Manufacturing PMI did not paint a positive picture as Indonesia's manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted sharply in August 2013. The index declined to a 15-month low amid a contraction of output, new orders and export business. Payroll numbers fell at the fastest rate in the history of the HSBC survey. The August index stood at 48.5, down from 50.7 in July 2013, and marks the fourth consecutive month of decline. A reading below 50.0 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

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Rising Asian stock indices from the start of the week have supported Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) to follow suit on Tuesday (13/08). Despite mixed markets in the United States and Europe, the IHSG grew 1.19 percent to 4,652.40 points. Japan's Nikkei index, which weakened seriously after the country's disappointing Q2 GDP result, rebounded and had a positive impact on the IHSG. Lastly, positive European openings made sure the IHSG would stay in the green zone.

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Last week (22-26 July 2013), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) ended 1.39 percent down at 4,658.87. The daily value of transactions on the regular market narrowed to an average of IDR 3 trillion (USD $300 million) from IDR 3.84 trillion in the previous week. Foreigners still recorded net sales amounting to IDR 92.9 billion (USD $9.3 million). Lack of positive sentiments, financial results of companies that were below expectation and the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar resulted in the decline of the index.

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Investment realization in Indonesia grew 30.2 percent to IDR 192.8 trillion (USD $19.8 billion) in the first six months of 2013 (compared to the same period last year). This result implies that 49.4 percent of the investment target for full 2013 has been achieved. The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) aims to collect IDR 390.3 trillion in investments this year. This target is divided in domestic direct investment (DDI) of IDR 117.7 trillion and foreign direct investment (FDI) of IDR 272.6 trillion.

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Despite the fact that Indonesia reported the world's third-highest GDP growth in 2012 (behind China's 7.4 percent and Saudi Arabia's 7.1 percent), supported by rising consumption by a burgeoning middle class and significant increased foreign direct investment, the country's performance in terms of competitiveness is disappointing. It is cheaper to import products from countries that contain competitive businesses than to produce them in Indonesia.

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