The ceramic industry in Indonesia is expected to grow about ten percent in 2015 amid the country’s +5 percentage point GDP growth. Economic expansion translates to increased purchasing power of Indonesian consumers and the ceramic industry is one of the industries that will benefit from this. Moreover, as Indonesian President Joko Widodo targets +7 percent GDP by the end of his term, new infrastructure and property projects are to rise as well. As such, domestic ceramic demand will increase accordingly.

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The administration of Indonesian President Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will not give priority status to the Sunda Strait Bridge project. As such, the new government’s stance is in direct contrast to the previous administration’s stance toward the ambitious infrastructure project. The Sunda Strait Bridge, a planned road and railway connection between the two (westernmost) Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Java, was placed high on the agenda of the government led by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

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Ahead of implementation of the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) in 2015, it is important for Indonesia to improve infrastructure at (and around) airports, particularly the nation’s smaller airports, in order to be able to compete with other airports in the ASEAN region. ASAM will turn ASEAN into a unified and single aviation market by 2015, meaning that air travel between ASEAN member states is fully liberalized. As such, ASAM will supersede existing unilateral, bilateral and multilateral air services agreements between ASEAN members.

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Cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise as the new Indonesian government aims to ramp up infrastructure development while - in the long term - Indonesian banks will lower interest rates. Lower interest rates give rise to enhanced property development in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The country’s three leading cement producers are expected to benefit significantly from these developments. These companies are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, and Holcim Indonesia.

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Cement sales in Indonesia surged 21 percent month-to-month (m/m) to 5.6 million ton in September 2014 from 4.6 million ton in the preceding month. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the increase in Indonesian cement sales was supported by the start of a number of central and regional government infrastructure projects. Santoso also detected an increase in development of property projects. Infrastructure and property are the sectors that absorb most cement.

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Indonesian Coordinating Economic Minister Chairul Tanjung said that construction of the Giant Sea Wall project, part of the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) masterplan, will start on 9 October 2014. This ambitious mega-project, situated in the bay of Jakarta, aims to enhance flood prevention, foster urban development and - more generally - to turn Jakarta into a more prestigious metropolis. The project requires a total of USD $40 billion in investments. Private participation is vital for financing of the project.

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The economy of Indonesia, which has been slowing since 2011, will have difficulty to rebound in 2015 as the central bank’s key interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be raised again to avert capital outflows brought on by higher interest rates in the US and to combat accelerated inflation after domestic subsidized fuel prices have been raised by the new government led by president-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi). After a GDP growth pace of 6.5 percent (y/y) in 2011, economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy fell to 5.8 percent (y/y) in 2013.

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Often the lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure in Indonesia has been cited as a reason for limited economic growth. Lack of adequate infrastructure causes the country's logistics costs to rise steeply, thus reducing competitiveness and attractiveness of the investment climate. Also in the country’s natural resources sector Indonesia’s infrastructure problems hamper development. For instance, the lack of quality irrigation to supply ample quantities of water to rice basins causes rice production to be far from optimal.

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The Indonesian government should improve inter and intra island connectivity to boost the number of foreign and domestic tourists in Indonesia. Due to the country’s lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure, a number of Indonesian regions that contain huge tourist potential cannot be reached easily. This was one of the conclusions drawn at a dialogue about the progress made after the Masterplan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia’s Economic Development (MP3EI) has been underway for three years.

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Indonesia has jumped four places in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index 2014-2015. In the latest edition Southeast Asia’s largest economy is ranked 34th (from 38th in last year’s edition of the index). Since the 2012-2013 edition, when Indonesia was ranked 50th, the country has risen steadily. The Global Competitiveness Index measures the institutions, policies, as well as factors that set the sustainable current and medium-term levels of economic prosperity among 144 countries around the world.

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State-controlled toll road constructor and operator Jasa Marga is expected to post rising revenue and net profit in the years to come as its toll road network is expanding amid the government's drive to push for infrastructure development, including toll road development. Recently Jasa Marga was awarded four toll road projects - all on the island of Java - with a total length of 262.3 kilometers (valued at IDR 18.4 trillion). Up to 2017 Jasa Marga plans to commission some 313 kilometers of toll road.

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After Japan was disappointed by not being awarded the contract to build a high-speed railway between Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta and Bandung (West Java), the Indonesian government now plans to offer the revitalization of the northern Java railway to Japan. Another project that is expected to be offered to Japan is the Patimban seaport project in Subang (West Java). Indonesian President Joko Widodo is currently in Japan for a two-day visit to attend the Group of Seven summit on invitation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

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It is estimated that Indonesia will need some USD $450 billion in funds to finance the government's infrastructure development plans for the 2015-2019 period. However, through the state budgets the government can only deliver USD $230 billion, or roughly 50 percent of required funds. The remainder should originate from the private sector (30 percent of total funds) and state-controlled enterprises (20 percent). However, is it likely that the private sector (both foreign and domestic) is to come up with USD $141 billion for investment in infrastructure up to 2019?

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With the Indonesian government showing its commitment to push for infrastructure development, the property sector of Indonesia is expected to get a boost as infrastructure development opens access to new areas. For example, Indonesia's first high-speed train project that is to connect Jakarta and Bandung (in West Java) is expected to give rise to new economic centers and cities along the 142 kilometers-long railway. Moreover, existing property in the proximity of a new infrastructure project should lead to significantly rising property prices.

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The Indonesian government plans to offer 10 toll road projects - with a total length of 520.83 kilometers - to investors before the end of the year. The projects are estimated to have a total value of IDR 109.58 trillion (approx. USD $8.3 billion). The offering of these projects are in line with the government's efforts to boost infrastructure development across the country. Such development will enhance inter and intra island connectivity, thus curbing the nation's high logistics costs and offer a more attractive investment climate to (potential) investors.

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Two state-controlled companies (both listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange) are expected to feel the positive impact of the light rail transit (LRT) in Palembang (South Sumatra), a transportation project currently under construction. These two companies are construction firm Waskita Karya and cement producer Semen Baturaja. These two companies are heavily involved in the LRT project that is estimated to cost around USD $520 million. This LRT track is supportive infrastructure for the 2018 Asian Games, to be held in South Sumatra in August 2018.

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Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 was rather disappointing at 4.92 percent (y/y), below analyst estimates that averaged around 5 percent (y/y), due to slowing household consumption, private investors being in a wait-and-see mode, and relatively weak government spending (a usual phenomenon at the year-start). Indonesia's construction sector also grew weakish in Q1-2016. However, the construction sector still has good prospects in the years ahead on the back of the government's infrastructure projects.

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If we look back on the month of April, two important matters - related to the economy - occurred in Indonesia this month: (1) in the first week of April, the Indonesian government managed to complete the Revised 2016 State Budget (RAPBN-P 2016), and, one week later, (2) the central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced it will adopt a new benchmark monetary tool per 19 August 2016 - the so-called seven-day reverse repurchase rate - that is to replace the existing BI rate (which fails to influence market liquidity effectively).

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), one of the leading banks in Indonesia, is expected to maintain rising net profit figures in the years ahead due to its decision to focus on (corporate) credit disbursement for domestic infrastructure development projects. In fact, according to RHB OSK Securities, BNI may become the state-controlled bank that benefits most from the government decision to raise its infrastructure budget to IDR 313.5 trillion (approx. USD $24 billion) in the 2016 State Budget. Last year, growth of credit disbursed by BNI to infrastructure projects climbed 116.2 percent (y/y). This year infrastructure credit may grow by another 19 percent.

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Public spending on infrastructure development in Indonesia is not optimal. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesia's National Development Planning Minister as well as Head of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), says immature and non-integrated planning between ministries and other government agencies as well as between the central and regional governments cause inefficient and non-optimal infrastructure spending. Non-optimal infrastructure development implies that Indonesia's overall economic growth as well as social development cannot achieve its full potential.

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