The Indonesian government revised its 2015 economic growth target. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, stated on Friday (03/07) that the government’s previous target was unrealistically high at 5.8 percent (y/y) given the sluggish international and domestic economic context. The government revised down the GDP growth target of 2015 to 5.2 percent (y/y). Djalil said that the global economy is forecast to grow 2.9 percent (y/y) in 2015 from an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent (y/y).

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Indonesia’s rapidly growing population in combination with robust economic growth and underinvestment in infrastructure development has resulted in the country’s current lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure. This situation causes a steep increase in logistics costs and blocks efforts to develop and realize national and regional economic potentials (an efficient logistics system is crucial for socioeconomic development of Indonesia). However, government spending on infrastructure development is set to start soon.

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It is estimated that about 20 million Indonesians will travel back to their hometowns during the Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran) celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan (the Islamic holy fasting month) next month. This homeward bound traveling is locally known as mudik. The annual mudik tradition involves millions of Indonesians taking time off from work, leaving their urban residences and travel back to their places of birth in the rural areas for a few days. During these days cities become empty.

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Indonesian Transportation Minister Ignatius Jonan inaugurated the new coal terminal, owned by state-controlled coal miner Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (Bukit Asam), in Tarahan (South Sumatra) on Wednesday (10/06). The Tarahan coal terminal, which required USD $152 million in investment, has now become Indonesia’s largest commercial terminal having the ability to accommodate ships with a maximum capacity of 210,000 dead-weight tonnage (DWT). This maximum capacity of the terminal is scheduled to be enlarged to 240,000 DWT.

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Several international institutions revised down their outlook for economic growth of Indonesia in 2015 as foreign investors have been somewhat disappointed with the performance of the new Indonesian government, while the global economic picture remains far from rosy. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse and Nomura Holdings have all slashed Indonesia’s economic growth forecast this year to below the five percent (year-on-year) mark. Last year Indonesia’s economic growth touched a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y).

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Indonesia is set to co-found a new cross-border Islamic (sharia-compliant) infrastructure bank together with Turkey and Saudi-based Islamic Development Bank (IDB), a multilateral lender. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said that Indonesia will contribute more than USD $300 million as start-up capital for the establishment of the new bank, named Islamic Investment Infrastructure Bank (IIIB), which aims to boost infrastructure development in various countries.

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The New Cities Summit 2015 will be held between 9 and 11 June at Ciputra Artpreneur in South Jakarta. The summit, themed “Seizing the Urban Moment: Cities at the Heart of Growth and Development,” will gather around 800 urban planners, urban leaders, artists, businessmen and innovators from around the world in Indonesia’s capital city. This year’s summit is the fourth edition. Previous editions were held in Paris, Sao Paulo and Dallas. The main theme of these summits is to discuss the future of cities.

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Today, Indonesian President Joko Widodo will lay the first stone for the groundbreaking ceremony of the 2,700 km Trans-Sumatra toll road project, linking Lampung to Aceh on the resource-rich island of Sumatra (Indonesia’s second-largest island in terms of geographic size). The toll road, which is one of the key priority infrastructure projects for the Indonesian government, is estimated to require a total of IDR 300 trillion (USD $23.1 billion) of investment. Ten years after parts of the toll road were first tendered, construction can finally commence.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) is again plagued by selling pressures on Wednesday’s trading day (29/04). After today’s first trading session the index was down 2.58 percent to 5,106.73 points. The decline is caused by the persistence of the negative sentiments that have been felt over the past couple of days (explained below) coupled with a discrepancy in economic growth forecasts between the Indonesian government and the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia).

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Most Southeast Asian stock markets declined ahead of the two-day policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve which started today (28/04). Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to limit losses. After the 3.49 percent fall yesterday, the IHSG was down 1 percent after the first trading session today. However, near the closure of the market the index improved markedly resulting in a small loss of 0.06 percent only. Due to severe losses over the past couple of trading sessions, some oversold blue chip shares became attractive.

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The Finance Ministry of Indonesia announced that it plans to inject USD 1.63 billion into state-owned financing company Sarana Multi Infrastruktur and to transform this company into an infrastructure bank in a move to boost infrastructure development across Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The central government needs private capital to fund its massive infrastructure program for the next five years as it can only account for 30 percent of required investment. For the remainder it relies on private capital and state-owned enterprises.

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In his presentation at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January, Standard Chartered Bank Senior Economist Fauzi Ichsan said that despite the challenges amid global uncertain times, there remains plenty room and opportunity for Indonesia to grow robustly on the long-term. In fact, by 2030 Ichsan believes that Indonesia will be among the world's top ten countries in terms of largest economies. For investors it is important to understand the challenges and key pillars of economic growth.

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Takehiko Nakao, President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow 5.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, lower than the target that has been set by the Indonesian government in the 2015 State Budget (5.8 percent y/y). Nakao is slightly less optimistic as he expects a slowdown in government spending this year. On a positive note, Nakao’s forecast implies a sharp improvement in Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015 from an estimated 5.1 percentage point (y/y) GDP growth in 2014.

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The Indonesian government changed the funding scheme for the construction of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Railway project (which will connect Soekarno Hatta International Airport, located nearby Jakarta, and Halim Airport in Jakarta). Previously, it was planned that this project, valued at IDR 26 trillion (USD $2.1 billion), would be offered through a public-private partnership (PPP) construction in which the Indonesian government would finance 55 percent of the costs. Now, however, the project is offered fully to the private sector.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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Last week, Indonesian President Joko Widodo introduced higher subsidized fuel prices in Southeast Asia’s largest economy in a bid to shift generous public spending from fuel consumption to productive and structural economic and social development. Prices of subsidized low-octane gasoline (premium) and diesel (solar) were raised by over 30 percent, or IDR 2,000 (USD $0.17) per liter, starting from 00:00 on Tuesday (18/11). Widodo aims to reallocate these funds to infrastructure, social welfare and the maritime sector.

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A total of 35 American companies are interested to invest a combined USD $61 billion in Indonesia over the next five years according to a survey conducted by the Paramadina Public Policy Institute, the American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia (AmCham Indonesia), the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), and the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia). These 35 US companies have already invested a total of USD $65 billion in Indonesia over the period 2004 to 2012.

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The number of air passengers in Indonesia will most likely fail to meet its growth target in 2014. Based on government data, the number of air passengers in Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 47.5 million in the first eight months of 2014, a 5.82 percentage point growth from the same period last year. However, the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA) initially targeted annual passenger growth in the range of 12-15 percent for 2014. Amid slowing economic growth, people’s purchasing power has declined.

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Investment in Indonesia’s processed food and beverage industry is expected to grow at least ten percent to IDR 55 trillion (USD $4.6 billion) in 2015 from an estimated investment realization of IDR 50 trillion in 2014. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), said that investments in this sector have been solid due to rising consumption of food and beverages in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Particularly foreign investments have been strong in 2014 and are expected to continue next year.

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Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?

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