Indonesian stocks continue to fall on today’s trading day (28/04). After having declined 3.49 percent yesterday, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell a further 1.00 percent during the first trading session on Tuesday. Investors, particularly foreign ones, are still concerned about weak first quarter financial results of listed Indonesian companies, signalling that the country’s economic growth in Q1-2015 will be disappointing too. Furthermore, the market is waiting for results of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which is set to start today.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) - fell sharply on Monday (27/04) amid mixed regional stock markets. Three main factors caused the weak performance of Indonesian stocks. Firstly, several key companies posted weak first quarter corporate earnings. Secondly, Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter may fall below 5 percent (y/y), which would be a six-year low. Lastly, Indonesia is getting bad press around the globe due to imminent executions of convicted foreign drug traffickers.

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On the sidelines of the 24th World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia, Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minister Sofyan Djalil said that - despite global challenges - the government maintains its economic growth target of 5.7 percent (y/y) in 2015. However, he added that it will require great effort to achieve this target. One key strategy to achieve the target is to attract foreign investment through several policies including tax incentives and by easing the country’s bureaucratic hurdles for investment permits.

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Two important indicators to measure the condition of an economy are car and cement sales as both statistics provide valuable information about people’s purchasing power (and consumer confidence) as well as infrastructure and property development. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s car and cement sales declined (compared to the same period in the preceding year), triggering concern that economic growth will fall accordingly. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia’s GDP growth had already slowed to 5.14 percent (y/y).

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The deadline for tenders for various infrastructure projects in Indonesia has been extended by the Public Works and Public Housing Ministry because it needs more time to determine the number of projects to be offered and to calculate new budget allocations for these projects. Ministry official Hediyanto W. Husaini said that his ministry is optimistic that by early May 2015 all construction projects can be tendered. Currently, only 9,578 construction projects (about 70 percent of total planned projects) can be tendered.

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The World Bank released its latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly report on 18 March 2015. In this report, entitled ‘High Expectations’, the World Bank states that it praises the early reform progress in several key areas such as fuel subsidies as well as more key reforms that are underway. This raises high expectations about the Indonesian economy in the middle and longer term. However, the government also faces challenges to implement further complex structural reforms amid subdued growth prospects.

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The Indonesian government will speed up construction of the 2,700 kilometers-long Trans-Sumatra toll road by revising Presidential Regulation No 100/2014 on Toll Road Construction in Sumatra and by accelerating the land acquisition process. The Trans-Sumatra toll road will become the main highway on Sumatra that connects Banda Aceh in the north to Bandar Lampung in the south through 24 sections stretching across ten provinces. President Joko Widodo said that construction of the highway is to start in April 2015.

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On Tuesday (03/03) the governments of Indonesia and the Netherlands launched a comprehensive five-year public-private partnership (PPP) for enhancing coastal safety at the northern coastal line of Central Java. By joining forces in this 5 million euro project (financed by the Dutch Sustainable Water Fund), mangrove restoration, small scale hard-engineering, and sustainable land use are to result in reduced erosion risk at the coastal area. Key to the project is the use natural protection to strengthen sustainable coastal engineering.

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Indonesian Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan said that the Cilamaya port project in Karawang (West Java) may be tendered this year to the private sector. The central government is currently engaged in the preparation of the terms of reference (TOR) for the project. Through the construction of the Cilamaya port, which will occupy 2,000 hectares of land some 65 kilometers east of Jakarta, the government aims to reduce the country’s logistics costs and ease traffic at the Tanjung Priok port, the largest Indonesian seaport, in Jakarta.

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The Indonesian government wants to limit investment opportunities in the country’s cement industry in an attempt to maintain a healthy business climate. Indonesian Industry Ministry official Harjanto said that Indonesia’s current cement production capacity is more than enough to meet domestic demand. Given that most established cement producers have expansion plans the influx of new cement producers leads to an oversupply thus reducing companies’ profit margins. The nation’s cement production capacity stands at 77 million tons per year.

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The Finance Ministry of Indonesia announced that it plans to inject USD 1.63 billion into state-owned financing company Sarana Multi Infrastruktur and to transform this company into an infrastructure bank in a move to boost infrastructure development across Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The central government needs private capital to fund its massive infrastructure program for the next five years as it can only account for 30 percent of required investment. For the remainder it relies on private capital and state-owned enterprises.

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In his presentation at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January, Standard Chartered Bank Senior Economist Fauzi Ichsan said that despite the challenges amid global uncertain times, there remains plenty room and opportunity for Indonesia to grow robustly on the long-term. In fact, by 2030 Ichsan believes that Indonesia will be among the world's top ten countries in terms of largest economies. For investors it is important to understand the challenges and key pillars of economic growth.

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Takehiko Nakao, President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow 5.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, lower than the target that has been set by the Indonesian government in the 2015 State Budget (5.8 percent y/y). Nakao is slightly less optimistic as he expects a slowdown in government spending this year. On a positive note, Nakao’s forecast implies a sharp improvement in Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015 from an estimated 5.1 percentage point (y/y) GDP growth in 2014.

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The Indonesian government changed the funding scheme for the construction of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Railway project (which will connect Soekarno Hatta International Airport, located nearby Jakarta, and Halim Airport in Jakarta). Previously, it was planned that this project, valued at IDR 26 trillion (USD $2.1 billion), would be offered through a public-private partnership (PPP) construction in which the Indonesian government would finance 55 percent of the costs. Now, however, the project is offered fully to the private sector.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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Last week, Indonesian President Joko Widodo introduced higher subsidized fuel prices in Southeast Asia’s largest economy in a bid to shift generous public spending from fuel consumption to productive and structural economic and social development. Prices of subsidized low-octane gasoline (premium) and diesel (solar) were raised by over 30 percent, or IDR 2,000 (USD $0.17) per liter, starting from 00:00 on Tuesday (18/11). Widodo aims to reallocate these funds to infrastructure, social welfare and the maritime sector.

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A total of 35 American companies are interested to invest a combined USD $61 billion in Indonesia over the next five years according to a survey conducted by the Paramadina Public Policy Institute, the American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia (AmCham Indonesia), the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), and the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia). These 35 US companies have already invested a total of USD $65 billion in Indonesia over the period 2004 to 2012.

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The number of air passengers in Indonesia will most likely fail to meet its growth target in 2014. Based on government data, the number of air passengers in Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 47.5 million in the first eight months of 2014, a 5.82 percentage point growth from the same period last year. However, the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA) initially targeted annual passenger growth in the range of 12-15 percent for 2014. Amid slowing economic growth, people’s purchasing power has declined.

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Investment in Indonesia’s processed food and beverage industry is expected to grow at least ten percent to IDR 55 trillion (USD $4.6 billion) in 2015 from an estimated investment realization of IDR 50 trillion in 2014. Adhi Lukman, General Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), said that investments in this sector have been solid due to rising consumption of food and beverages in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Particularly foreign investments have been strong in 2014 and are expected to continue next year.

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Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?

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