Indonesia Investments Report - June 2021 Edition: COVID-19 Crisis Intensifies
Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 3,372,374 confirmed infections, 92,311 deaths (30 July 2021)
30 July 2021 (closed)
Jakarta Composite Index (6,070.04) -50.69 -0.83%
USD/IDR (14,146) -6.00 -0.04%
EUR/IDR (17,335) +57.05 +0.33%
Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Today's Headlines Infrastructure
On 8 June 2021 Indonesian Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Erick Thohir told Commission VI of the House of Representatives (DPR) that he proposes to raise the budget for capital injections into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in 2022. The main reason is that the SOE Ministry wants to inject (additional) capital into 12 SOEs.
In November 2020 the Patimban seaport is expected to open in Subang (West Java). Although it is only the soft launch of the project’s first phase, it is no small matter as this port is set to be developed into Indonesia’s biggest port by 2027.
On Monday (05/10/2020) Indonesia Investments released the September 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'Infrastructure in Focus', we focus on infrastructure development in Indonesia. For example we discuss how the lack of infrastructure development undermines economic and social development.
On Sunday 14 July 2019 Indonesian President Joko Widodo unveiled his vision for Indonesia in the 2019-2024 period, which will be his second – and final - term as president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy (with the inauguration of his new cabinet scheduled for late-October 2019).
In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.
The construction of three national strategic projects - worth a combined IDR 70 trillion (approx. USD $5 billion) - is targeted to be completed before the end of 2019. These three projects are: (1) the first phase of Jakarta's mass rapid transit (IDR 16 trillion), (2) the New Yogyakarta International airport (IDR 10.8 trillion), and (3) the Patimban seaport in Subang, West Java (IDR 43.2 trillion).
Basuki Hadimuljono, Indonesian Minister of Public Works and Public Housing, said the government continues to push for infrastructure development in the form of toll roads in various regions across Indonesia.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the Indonesian government needs to make a more careful selection in terms of infrastructure development projects in order to curtail the big amount of imports that put pressure on the country's current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
Indonesia managed to rise sharply in the ranks of the World Bank's latest Logistics Performance Index (LPI). In the 2018 edition, which was released on Tuesday (24/07), Indonesia ranked 46th, up from 63rd in the preceding edition (released in 2016).
Indonesia's Transportation Ministry is optimistic that the construction of the Patimban Seaport in Subang (West Java) can commence in June 2018 after the Idul Fitri celebrations have completed. Meanwhile, the port operator tender is scheduled to be opened in July 2018. The USD $3.1 billion Patimban seaport is envisaged to become a key international seaport in Indonesia with a 7.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) capacity.
Latest Columns Infrastructure
The prequalification tender for the construction of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Railway project has been postponed until late October 2014 (from August) as agreements with several stakeholders still need to be finalized. For example, the government is yet to underwrite part of the required investment. Indonesia’s Ministry of Transportation proposes to underwrite IDR 13.5 trillion (USD $2.3 billion) - approximately 49 percent of total required investment for this railway project.
Property stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have outperformed all other stocks between the first trading day of 2014 up to 29 August 2014. The IDX’ property sector category rose 37.6 percent in the indicated period, whereas the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) - which involves all stocks traded on the IDX - climbed 18.7 percent over the same period. On the IDX, stocks are placed in ten sectoral categories. The second-best performing sectoral index was finance (+24.5 percent).
Before the second and final term of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has finished on 20 October 2014, the groundbreaking of a total of 13 infrastructure projects should have been conducted. These 13 projects are diverse ranging from toll roads to steam power plants and the extension of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport located nearby Jakarta. One of these 13 projects - the IDR 9.65 trillion Trans Sulawesi Railway project - has already had its groundbreaking in mid-August 2014.
When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.
The Indonesian Transportation Ministry will tender the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport train project in August 2014. The project, which will connect one of the world’s busiest airports to the capital city of Jakarta, is offered in the shape of a public-private partnership (PPP) with the Indonesian government. The total of investment required to develop the railway, which will be built partly underground, is estimated at IDR 26 trillion (USD $2.2 billion). The project aims to improve connectivity to the airport.
On Monday (23/06), the World Bank released its latest analysis regarding the Indonesian economy. In its report, titled ‘Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap’, the World Bank states that Indonesia needs to implement a six reforms in priority areas in order to avoid the so-called middle income trap (referring to the situation where a country gets stuck at a certain income level). Without these critical reforms, the country’s economic growth will slow and may not be able to escape the middle income trap.
Sunday evening (15/06), the second debate between Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Prabowo Subianto and Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo - was held. This debate was broadcast live on various Indonesian television stations and - once again - managed to become a trending topic on social media. The debate, the theme of which was ‘development of the economy and social welfare‘, was characterized by a nationalistic and protectionist tone. This tone had already been set by Subianto in the past weeks but now Jokowi also stressed protectionism.
A total of twenty Japanese companies engaged in the food and beverage industry are exploring investment opportunities in Indonesia. According to research conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the food and beverage industry of Indonesia is regarded as a lucrative investment opportunity by these companies. If realized, these foreign direct investments could be worth between USD $400 million to USD $1 billion. However, JICA’s research did not mention any names of the Japanese companies.
The plantation sector of Indonesia is vulnerable to land disputes. Noor Marzuki, a Director at the National Land Agency (Badan Pertanahan Nasional, or BPN), a non-departmental government institution, said that currently only 30 percent of Indonesia's total plantation estate area has been registered at the BPN. This implies that 70 percent of Indonesian plantation estates are unregistered and thus susceptible to land conflicts. The total size of Indonesia's plantation estate area is 120 million hectares.
Regarding stock trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, investors who focused on property, banking and infrastructure stocks have made the highest profit so far in 2014. Although all sectoral indices that are contained within the benchmark stock index of Indonesia, known as the Jakarta Composite Index (abbreviated IHSG) have shown a good performance, the three aforementioned sectoral indices stand out as the country's top performers. Indonesia's IHSG has risen 16.14 percent between 1 January and 26 May 2014.
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