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Today's Headlines Infrastructure
It has been a while since we last covered Indonesia’s logistics sector, and so it is time for a new analysis on this topic. This is particularly relevant because the World Bank recently released a new Logistics Performance Index report (July 2023).
It has been a while since we last covered Indonesia’s new capital city in our monthly reports (the last time was in December 2021 to be exactly). And therefore, it might be a good idea to see what has happened over the past nine months or so in relation to the development of this giant construction project.
On 22 July 2022 a new regulation came into effect, titled Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Regulation No. 9 of Year 2022 on the Amendment of Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Regulation No. 7 of Year 2021 on the Amendment of the List of National Strategic Projects (henceforth: Regulation 9/2022).
On Monday (08.11.2021) Indonesia Investments released its October 2021 report. This report discusses a range of subjects - related to political developments, the economy and social matters - that were influential in Indonesia in the month of October 2021.
On 8 June 2021 Indonesian Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Erick Thohir told Commission VI of the House of Representatives (DPR) that he proposes to raise the budget for capital injections into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in 2022. The main reason is that the SOE Ministry wants to inject (additional) capital into 12 SOEs.
In November 2020 the Patimban seaport is expected to open in Subang (West Java). Although it is only the soft launch of the project’s first phase, it is no small matter as this port is set to be developed into Indonesia’s biggest port by 2027.
On Monday (05/10/2020) Indonesia Investments released the September 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'Infrastructure in Focus', we focus on infrastructure development in Indonesia. For example we discuss how the lack of infrastructure development undermines economic and social development.
On Sunday 14 July 2019 Indonesian President Joko Widodo unveiled his vision for Indonesia in the 2019-2024 period, which will be his second – and final - term as president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy (with the inauguration of his new cabinet scheduled for late-October 2019).
In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.
The construction of three national strategic projects - worth a combined IDR 70 trillion (approx. USD $5 billion) - is targeted to be completed before the end of 2019. These three projects are: (1) the first phase of Jakarta's mass rapid transit (IDR 16 trillion), (2) the New Yogyakarta International airport (IDR 10.8 trillion), and (3) the Patimban seaport in Subang, West Java (IDR 43.2 trillion).
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Construction company Waskita Karya is expected to be among the main beneficiaries of the multi-year Trans-Java toll road project. The company, in which the Indonesian government owns a 68 percent stake, has been assigned to develop six (out of a total of 19) sections of the Trans-Java toll road including the sections Pemalang-Batang, Solo-Ngawi and Ngawi-Kertosono. Waskita Karya's participation in this project will not only strengthen the company's investment portfolio in Indonesia's toll road sector but will also imply rising precast concrete sales of its subsidiary Waskita Beton Precast (established in 2013).
The price of steel has surged 20 percent to USD $365 per ton in April 2016 from USD $305 per ton at the start of the year. The primary reason for the higher steel price is China's plan to curtail the country's installed steel production capacity by a further 150 million tons over the next five years. In recent years the steel price has dropped significantly due to the global oversupply, mainly originating from the chronic steel oversupply in China where domestic demand declined amid the nation's economic slowdown.
Construction of a new big infrastructure project in Indonesia has started: the Semanggi flyover in Jakarta's central business district. The project involves two additional elevated ramp roads above the existing intersection at Semanggi (hence creating an interchange). Improving the existing road infrastructure at this location is required in order to ease severe traffic congestion that occurs on working days. The project, which requires high-end technology, kicked off on Friday (08/04) and is scheduled to be completed in August 2017, ahead of the 2018 Asian Games.
After experiencing a two-month delay due to permitting and concession trouble, the construction of the Jakarta-Bandung fast train should be able to commence soon. Indonesian Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan confirmed on Wednesday (16/03) that his ministry agreed to grant a 50-year concession period to the Chinese-Indonesian consortium named Kereta Cepat Indonesia Cina (KCIC). The granting of this concession means that KCIC should be able to secure the necessary construction and business permits soon. The USD $5.1 billion Jakarta-Bandung railway (in West Java) is one of the mega-infrastructure projects of Indonesia.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.
With Indonesia's construction and infrastructure sectors expected to grow in 2016, backed by government support, Indonesia-based steel pipe manufacturer Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia should manage to see higher net profit this year. The company, with its factories in Sidoarjo and Surabaya (East Java), has the largest steel pipe production capacity of all steel pipe producers in Indonesia. With its six factories - and 34 production lines - the company's production capacity currently stands at 588,600 metric tons per year.
Indonesia's Ministry of Transportation has completed a feasibility study for the development of the Patimban seaport in West Java. Although there are no official statements made by the Indonesian government, it is expected that the Patimban seaport is the most suitable candidate to replace the Cilamaya port project in Karawang (West Java). This project was cancelled in April 2015 as the location was too closely located to an oil and gas block operated by Pertamina Hulu Energi Offshore North West Java, a unit of state-owned energy company Pertamina.
As cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise nearly 10 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in 2016 on the back of government-led infrastructure development, investment growth and accelerating GDP growth, three cement producers are set to benefit. The three market leaders in Indonesia's cement industry that should see higher sales are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia.
On Monday (21/12) the government of Indonesia unveiled its eight economic stimulus package. This latest edition of the series of packages - all aimed at boosting economic growth - involves three policies. Firstly, the scrapping of import taxes on 21 categories of airplane spare parts. Secondly, fiscal and non-fiscal incentives for the development of oil refineries. Thirdly, the central government will streamline and harmonize land-acquisition for infrastructure development across the country through the new "one-map policy".
Bank Central Asia (BCA), one of the leading commercial banks in Indonesia, is estimated to continue posting growing net profit and rising credit growth in the years ahead despite the persistently sluggish domestic economy. However, contrary to the state-controlled banks - such as Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) - BCA will most likely not see double-digit credit growth in the near future as BCA's customers mostly originate from the private sector. The state-controlled banks, on the other hand, have the advantage of being involved in the government's push for infrastructure development and government spending.
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