Indonesian stocks continue to fall on today’s trading day (28/04). After having declined 3.49 percent yesterday, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell a further 1.00 percent during the first trading session on Tuesday. Investors, particularly foreign ones, are still concerned about weak first quarter financial results of listed Indonesian companies, signalling that the country’s economic growth in Q1-2015 will be disappointing too. Furthermore, the market is waiting for results of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which is set to start today.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) - fell sharply on Monday (27/04) amid mixed regional stock markets. Three main factors caused the weak performance of Indonesian stocks. Firstly, several key companies posted weak first quarter corporate earnings. Secondly, Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter may fall below 5 percent (y/y), which would be a six-year low. Lastly, Indonesia is getting bad press around the globe due to imminent executions of convicted foreign drug traffickers.

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On the sidelines of the 24th World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia, Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minister Sofyan Djalil said that - despite global challenges - the government maintains its economic growth target of 5.7 percent (y/y) in 2015. However, he added that it will require great effort to achieve this target. One key strategy to achieve the target is to attract foreign investment through several policies including tax incentives and by easing the country’s bureaucratic hurdles for investment permits.

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Two important indicators to measure the condition of an economy are car and cement sales as both statistics provide valuable information about people’s purchasing power (and consumer confidence) as well as infrastructure and property development. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s car and cement sales declined (compared to the same period in the preceding year), triggering concern that economic growth will fall accordingly. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia’s GDP growth had already slowed to 5.14 percent (y/y).

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The deadline for tenders for various infrastructure projects in Indonesia has been extended by the Public Works and Public Housing Ministry because it needs more time to determine the number of projects to be offered and to calculate new budget allocations for these projects. Ministry official Hediyanto W. Husaini said that his ministry is optimistic that by early May 2015 all construction projects can be tendered. Currently, only 9,578 construction projects (about 70 percent of total planned projects) can be tendered.

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The World Bank released its latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly report on 18 March 2015. In this report, entitled ‘High Expectations’, the World Bank states that it praises the early reform progress in several key areas such as fuel subsidies as well as more key reforms that are underway. This raises high expectations about the Indonesian economy in the middle and longer term. However, the government also faces challenges to implement further complex structural reforms amid subdued growth prospects.

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The Indonesian government will speed up construction of the 2,700 kilometers-long Trans-Sumatra toll road by revising Presidential Regulation No 100/2014 on Toll Road Construction in Sumatra and by accelerating the land acquisition process. The Trans-Sumatra toll road will become the main highway on Sumatra that connects Banda Aceh in the north to Bandar Lampung in the south through 24 sections stretching across ten provinces. President Joko Widodo said that construction of the highway is to start in April 2015.

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On Tuesday (03/03) the governments of Indonesia and the Netherlands launched a comprehensive five-year public-private partnership (PPP) for enhancing coastal safety at the northern coastal line of Central Java. By joining forces in this 5 million euro project (financed by the Dutch Sustainable Water Fund), mangrove restoration, small scale hard-engineering, and sustainable land use are to result in reduced erosion risk at the coastal area. Key to the project is the use natural protection to strengthen sustainable coastal engineering.

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Indonesian Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan said that the Cilamaya port project in Karawang (West Java) may be tendered this year to the private sector. The central government is currently engaged in the preparation of the terms of reference (TOR) for the project. Through the construction of the Cilamaya port, which will occupy 2,000 hectares of land some 65 kilometers east of Jakarta, the government aims to reduce the country’s logistics costs and ease traffic at the Tanjung Priok port, the largest Indonesian seaport, in Jakarta.

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The Indonesian government wants to limit investment opportunities in the country’s cement industry in an attempt to maintain a healthy business climate. Indonesian Industry Ministry official Harjanto said that Indonesia’s current cement production capacity is more than enough to meet domestic demand. Given that most established cement producers have expansion plans the influx of new cement producers leads to an oversupply thus reducing companies’ profit margins. The nation’s cement production capacity stands at 77 million tons per year.

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Indonesia posted a higher-than-expected USD $454.4 million trade surplus in April 2015. Previously, analysts predicted to see an April trade surplus of around USD $120 million. However, the USD $454.4 million trade surplus was smaller than the (revised) USD $1 billion trade surplus recorded in March. Moreover, the April surplus (the country’s fifth consecutive trade surplus) is primarily caused by a large drop in imports, signalling that Indonesia’s economic performance remains sluggish at the start of Q2-2015.

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Ahead of the release of Indonesia’s official first quarter GDP growth figure (scheduled to be released in the first week of May), Indonesian stocks fell and the rupiah depreciated (slightly) against the US dollar on the back of weak market sentiments that have plagued Indonesian markets over the past week. Most importantly, weaker-than-expected Q1-2015 corporate earnings reports of listed Indonesian blue chips have made market participants concerned that Indonesia’s economic slowdown has continued into the first quarter of 2015.

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Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.

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The year 2015 may be a good one for Indonesian cement makers. The Indonesian government under the leadership of Joko Widodo is eager to invest heavily in the country’s infrastructure as this is one of the main bottlenecks that blocks higher economic growth. In the Revised 2015 State Budget the central government set aside IDR 290.3 trillion (USD $22.3 billion) for infrastructure development. Surely, the country's large cement producers - Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Holcim Indonesia and Semen Baturaja - will benefit from this.

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Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. This interest rate environment is considered to be in line with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to push the country’s inflation figure within its target of 4±1 percent for 2015 and 2016, as well as to control the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.

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The government of Indonesia decided to relocate the planned Cilamaya deep seaport project in West Java to a different location (possibly Subang or Indramayu) as the initially proposed location is too closely located to an oil and gas block operated by Pertamina Hulu Energi Offshore North West Java, a subsidiary of state-owned energy company Pertamina. Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla said that it would be dangerous to construct the seaport close to this block as there is a high likelihood that ships will hit oil and gas rigs.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report today (24/03) in which it discusses recent economic developments in Indonesia. According to the report, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate over the two years ahead provided that the Indonesian government continues to implement structural policy reforms. Such reforms - which include the acceleration of infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and enhancing budget implementation - should lead to an improvement of the investment climate.

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One of the key strategies to improve the economic fundamentals of Indonesia is to restructure and strengthen the country’s exports. This restructuring involves the transformation of Indonesian exports from being dominated by (raw) commodities to manufactured exports by developing downstream industries in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, including import substitution industrialization in order to curb the country’s demand for imported products amid Indonesians’ rising purchasing power.

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Although Indonesia’s economic growth slowed further in 2014, there is optimism that growth will accelerate in 2015 despite sluggish global economic conditions (curbing Indonesia’s export performance) and Bank Indonesia’s relatively high interest rate environment. Indonesia’s central bank has raised its BI rate several times over the past one and a half years in an effort to combat high inflation (caused by fuel price hikes), curb capital outflows ahead of US monetary tightening, limit the current account deficit and support the rupiah.

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The total number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia in 2014 was 9.44 million, up 7.19 percent from the preceding year, meaning that the government target of welcoming 9.3 million foreign tourists last year was achieved. As usual, most foreign tourists entered Indonesia through the Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali, the most famous tourist destination in the world’s largest archipelago. During the whole year of 2014 a total of 3.71 million foreigners spent some time on Bali.

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