The legislative and presidential elections that are scheduled for April 2019 seem to have a big impact on direct investment realization in Indonesia this year. Based on the latest data from the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), foreign direct investment (FDI) realization dropped 20.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 89.1 trillion (USD $5.9 billion) in the third quarter of 2018. This constitutes the third consecutive quarterly decline in FDI realization in Indonesia.

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An interesting project for investors who seek to enter - or expand their business - into the hospitality industry of Indonesia is the four-star Amos Cozy Hotel & Convention Hall. This hotel is for sale with the offering price set at USD $24 million.

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In an effort to boost domestic and foreign direct investment, the Indonesian government launched the online single submission (OSS) licensing system on Monday (09/07). The system, which is based on (1) Presidential Regulation No. 91/2017 on the Acceleration of Business Implementation and (2) Government Regulation No. 24/2018 on the Electronically Integrated Business Licensing Service, was designed to cut lengthy bureaucratic procedures (red tape), thus attract more direct investment.

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Seeing various startup companies - across the globe (but also in Indonesia) - having developed into influential unicorns with a valuation of at least USD $1 billion, startup companies deserve some special attention. It is true, however, that most startups end in failure and therefore it is important to fully comprehend all aspects involved when establishing, running, and buying or selling a startup company to turn it into a success.

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Total direct investment (foreign plus domestic investment) in Indonesia rose 11.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 185.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2018, showing robust investor appetite and giving rise to optimism that Indonesia's full-year direct investment target of IDR 765 trillion can be achieved. Traditionally direct investment realization is lowest in the first quarter of the year (although the upcoming elections in 2018 and 2019 may make some investors prefer to wait and see).

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SKK Migas, the government's special taskforce for upstream oil and gas business activities in Indonesia, said direct investment in the country's upstream oil and gas sector reached USD $1.8 billion by the end of February 2018 (equivalent to around 13.84 percent of SKK Migas' full-year 2018 investment target in the country's oil and gas sector).

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The Indonesian government said it will take a number of steps to tackle several classic problems that obstruct investment realization in the country. Based on internal research, the government counted a total of 190 cases where investors' investment commitment failed to be realized between 2010 and 2017. This led to an estimated IDR 351.2 trillion (approx. USD $26.2 billion) in missed domestic direct investment and USD $54.6 billion in missed foreign direct investment.

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Although the Indonesian government offered various attractive incentives to investors (tax holidays and tax allowances) in 2017 in an effort to encourage investment in pioneering industries (particularly the downstream oil & gas industry), there were no companies that took advantage of these incentives. How come investors were not interested in these incentives?

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Thomas Lembong, Head of the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), says his agency targets a 10-14 percent (y/y) growth pace in terms of domestic and foreign direct investment in Indonesia in 2018. Specifically the e-commerce sector and services sector are expected to attract plenty of investment this year.

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The food and beverage industry of Indonesia remains one of the most promising investment destinations for domestic and foreign investors. In the January-September 2017 period, a total of IDR 47.56 trillion (approx. USD $3.5 billion) was invested in this industry.

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At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.

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The Indonesian government admits that it is difficult to achieve the 5.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target that was set in the Revised 2014 State Budget (APBN-P 2014). In fact, Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that Southeast Asia’s largest economy will have to work hard to reach +5.3 percentage point GDP growth this year. “We have to be realistic. Hopefully GDP growth will improve in the second half of 2014 to a level of 5.3 percent. The current forecast for GDP growth in 2014 is 5.2-5.3 percent,” he said.

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On Monday (23/06), the World Bank released its latest analysis regarding the Indonesian economy. In its report, titled ‘Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap’, the World Bank states that Indonesia needs to implement a six reforms in priority areas in order to avoid the so-called middle income trap (referring to the situation where a country gets stuck at a certain income level). Without these critical reforms, the country’s economic growth will slow and may not be able to escape the middle income trap.

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Chairman of Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) Suryo Bambang Sulisto stated that the most crucial problem which Indonesia is facing currently as well as in the foreseeable future is unemployment. Sulisto said that while the population of Indonesia has grown continuously in the past decade, unaffected by family planning programs, employment opportunities have not grown accordingly. In fact, they have declined. At end-2013, Indonesia's unemployment rate stood at 6.3 percent (of the total labor force).

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) said that total realized investments in Indonesia in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at IDR 100.5 trillion (USD $8.89 billion). Of this total figure, IDR 67.0 trillion (USD $5.93 billion) was accounted for by foreign direct investment (FDI), while the remainder (IDR 33.5 trillion) was classified as domestic direct investment (DDI). The total investment realization of IDR 100.5 trillion was the highest ever quarterly investment figure since the BKPM releases these quarterly results.

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The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.

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Growth of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Indonesia has continued to slow down in the first six months of 2013. In the first quarter of 2013, GFCF rose 5.78 percent but in the second quarter the pace fell to 4.67 percent. These results are much lower than last year's quarterly growth rates as can be seen in the table below. In fact, the growth rate in Q2-2013 constitutes the lowest growth rate in the last 13 quarters. In Q2-2013, all sectors experienced weakening investments except for domestic machinery and equipment.

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Investment realization in Indonesia grew 30.2 percent to IDR 192.8 trillion (USD $19.8 billion) in the first six months of 2013 (compared to the same period last year). This result implies that 49.4 percent of the investment target for full 2013 has been achieved. The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) aims to collect IDR 390.3 trillion in investments this year. This target is divided in domestic direct investment (DDI) of IDR 117.7 trillion and foreign direct investment (FDI) of IDR 272.6 trillion.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 will not meet the government's target as has been set in the revised State Budget (APNB-P). Last month, both government and parliament of Indonesia agreed on a revised GDP growth assumption of 6.3 percent. However, Bank Indonesia believes that, due to slowing domestic consumption and investments in the current global economic context, the growth is more likely to fall between 5.8 and 6.2 percent.

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Various high government officials, including president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Finance minister Agus Martowardojo and National Development Planning minister Armida Alisjahbana stated that Indonesia's economy is estimated to grow between 6.3 and 6.8 percent in 2014. Its main economic pillars of support are thought to be (foreign and domestic) investments, domestic consumption, and government expenditure. Poverty is targeted to be reduced to ten percent of the population.

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