Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is expected to decline 5 percent (y/y) to 29.6 million tons from a realization of 31.2 million tons in the preceding year. At the start of the year the Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia targeted CPO output around 31-32 million tons in full-year 2016. However, lower-than-targeted CPO production is the result of a looming strong La Nina weather phenomenon (which brings wetter-than-usual conditions to Southeast Asia) and the strong El Nino earlier this year (bringer droughts to Southeast Asia).

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The "haze season" is back in Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia. Forest fires in Riau (Sumatra) are the main cause of smoke that has been carried to Singapore and Malaysia over the weekend. But also fires in West and Central Kalimantan have caused local haze. Hundreds of firefighters and military personnel were deployed to combat forest fires in Riau where 162 hotspots were counted over the past couple of days. Indonesian farmers' (illegal) slash-and-burn practices (aimed at clearing land) are the cause, while dry and hot weather exacerbate the situation.

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Indonesia wants to enter the top five ranking of the world's largest textile (and textile products) exporters in the next couple of years. Currently, Indonesia is ranked tenth (controlling a global market share of 1.8 percent) far behind China that remains the clear world leader in terms of textile and garment production as well as export. Indonesia's Industry Ministry is in the middle of preparing several incentives that should bring Indonesia in the top five, including tax incentives and lower gas prices for export-oriented textile companies.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that up to the third week of August deflation reached 0.06 percent month-to-month (m/m). Juda Agung, Executive Director at Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said consumer demand has diminished after previously peaking during the Islamic Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations in June and July. Usually the month of August sees inflationary pressures (caused by the new school year). This year, however, it may be the first time in many years that August brings deflation.

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