Global markets are again facing rough times after China’s manufacturing activity fell to a three-year low in July 2015, yet another sign that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing faster than earlier estimated (and this surely impacts negatively on the global economy). Concerns about China led to plunging stock indices from Japan to New York on Tuesday (01/09). Moreover, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who is on a visit in Indonesia, said the IMF may soon cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2015 again (from 3.3 percent currently).
When Asian trade opened today (02/09) it seemed that markets would continue to go downhill rapidly as Japan’s Nikkei 225 immediately fell 1.67 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index plunged 4.39 percent, and Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index declined over 1 percent.
However, markets slightly recovered in mid-morning. Due to investors’ hunger for cheap stocks - and Peter Oppenheimer (Goldman Sachs’ Chief Global Equities Strategist) saying that investors should use the opportunity to accumulate Japanese stocks - the Nikkei 225 turned into green territory (but trade remains extremely volatile).
China’s Shanghai Composite Index cut losses after dropping 4.39 percent after opening (but remains in red territory by more than two percent). China’s government has spent hundreds of billions of US dollar to boost local stocks and restore market confidence (but with limited success). On Thursday and Friday China’s financial markets will be closed for a public holiday (the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the victory over Japan and the end of World War II).
Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index also somewhat recovered after having fallen 1.37 percent shortly after opening. But by 10:25 am local Jakarta time, the index was still down 0.61 percent to 4,385.33 points.
The Indonesian rupiah rate continued to depreciate on Wednesday morning. By 10:30 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had depreciated 0.24 percent to IDR 14,132 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index as commodity prices eased amid the sluggish global economy. Market participants also expect to see a sharp drop in Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in August. Later this week, Bank Indonesia will publish official foreign exchange reserves data. In recent weeks the central bank has used part of its reserves to support the rupiah.
Rupiah akan melemah sampai 15,000/USD?
Voting possible: -
- Tidak, Bank Indonesia melakukan intervensi (31.6%)
- Ya, tekanan dari luar negeri terlalu kuat (28.1%)
- Ya, keadaan ekonomi Indonesia terlalu lemah sekarang (21.1%)
- Tidak, setelah Fed Fund Rate hike tekanan akan mereda (19.3%)
Total amount of votes: 114