Hendra Sinadia, Deputy Director of APBI, said "if we take into account the development of the coal price in recent months, it seems to stabilize around USD $50 per ton. Therefore, we predict that the coal price will remain around this level for the remainder of the year." Moreover, the recently rising crude oil prices - with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate hovering just above the USD $40 per barrel level - encourage other commodity prices to rise accordingly.

Sinadia also expects to see rising coal demand in the remaining quarters of the year, and further rising demand in 2017. His forecast is particularly based on the government's ambitious 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plan. The Indonesian government wants to add total power capacity of 35,000 MW in the next four years. The majority of these power plants will be coal-fired hence stimulating domestic coal demand.

On Wednesday, the world's largest privately-owned coal producer, US-based Peabody Energy Corp, filed for bankruptcy protection after its debt burden became too high. Peabody Energy is one of the many coal mining companies across the globe that experienced severe financial troubles due to the low coal prices. After 2011 prices went downhill due to weak global economic growth (especially dragged down by the slowdown in China), while cheap (and cleaner) gas became a key rival of coal.

Indonesian Government's Benchmark Thermal Coal Price (HBA):

Month    2012    2013    2014    2015
   2016
January   109.29    87.55    81.90    63.84    53.20
February   111.58    88.35    80.44    62.92    50.92
March   112.87    90.09    77.01    67.76    51.62
April   105.61    88.56    74.81    64.48    52.32
May   102.12    85.33    73.60    61.08
June    96.65    84.87    73.64    59.59
July    87.56    81.69    72.45    59.16
August    84.65    76.70    70.29    59.14
September    86.21    76.89    69.69    58.21
October    86.04    76.61    67.26    57.39
November    81.44    78.13    65.70    54.43
December    81.75    80.31    69.23    53.51

in USD/ton
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

Indonesian Production, Export, Consumption & Price of Coal:

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Production
(in million tons)
 217  240  254  275  353  412  474  458  376
Export
(in million tons)
 163  191  198  210  287  345  402  382  296
Domestic
(in million tons)
  61   49   56   65   66   67   72   76   80
Price (HBA)
(in USD/ton)
  n.a   n.a  70.7  91.7 118.4  95.5  82.9  72.6  60.1

Sources: Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) & Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

Bahas