Indonesian Stocks Expected to Rise on French Presidential Election
Asian shares rose on Tuesday morning (25/04), following the strong performance of Wall Street overnight, supported by easing concerns about the stability of the European Union (EU) after French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron is seen as the clear favorite in the presidential runoff. Macron, a pro-EU centrist, will face Marine Le Pen, an anti-EU nationalist, in the runoff. Due to easing concerns safe haven assets came under pressure, while the euro retained gains. Australia and New Zealand are closed for a public holiday.
Based on the latest polls, Emmanuel Macron is expected to defeat Marine Le Pen with a 30 percent margin in the second, and final, round of the 2017 French presidential election that is scheduled to take place in two weeks. While in other recent events these polls were wrong (most notably the "Brexit" case and Donald Trump's victory in the 2017 US presidential election), the 30 margin between both French candidates is considered a safe margin and therefore market participants do not expect to see a shock this time.
With concerns about France leaving the EU sliding, investors are now back focusing on:
(1) the remainder of the first quarter earnings season (in the USA about 77 percent of the Q1-2017 corporate earnings reports that have been released so far were well received by the market),
(2) Donald Trump's tax reforms (Trump is set to unveil his plans for individual and corporate tax on Wednesday),
(3) economic data (Australian and Japan inflation, Japan's unemployment rate, and Q1 GDP for Taiwan and South Korea),
(5) Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, while
(6) investors will keep an eye on tensions in Korea.
For Indonesian stocks this context should manage to push stocks higher, after the 1.24 percent gain of Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index on last Friday (21/04). Yesterday, Indonesian markets were closed for a public holiday.
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