In early September 2019 the World Bank released a report titled Global Economic Risks and Implications for Indonesia that paints a somewhat negative picture of Indonesia’s economic growth in the foreseeable future. The Washington-based institution noted that it expects Indonesia’s economic expansion to continue slowing up to (at least) 2022; from a realized growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018 to 4.6 percent (y/y) in 2022.

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On Thursday (05/09) Indonesia Investments released the August 2019 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of August 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.

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For the first time in several years, Indonesia Investments decided that it had to adjust its outlook for Indonesia’s economic growth. Since 2016, Indonesia’s modestly accelerating economic growth rate had been fully in line with our estimates.

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On Tuesday (11/06) Indonesia Investments released the May 2019 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of May 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.

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In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.

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A survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) shows that retail sales have grown strongly in December 2018. The growth pace was recorded at 7.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the last month of 2018, strengthening from an annual growth rate of 3.4 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.

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On Friday (7/12) Indonesia Investments released the November 2018 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of November 2018 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.

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At the start of the 2018 International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank Group Annual Meetings on Bali (8-14 October 2018), the IMF released the October 2018 edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. The Washington-based institution became less optimistic about the global environment and therefore cut its forecast for global economic growth as well as its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth.

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Danareksa, a fully state-owned financial institution in Indonesia, expects Indonesia's economic growth to slow in 2019 to the range of 5.1 - 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) from an estimated growth range of 5.2 - 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2018.

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In the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly (June 2018 edition) there are plenty of positive words about the Indonesian economy, such as robust economic growth, low inflation, rising investment, growing government spending, and prudent monetary policy. However, the World Bank also detects some "substantial and mostly external" risks that lurk about. Below is the summary of the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled "Learning More, Growing Faster".

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In a bid to boost economic activity in Indonesia, the central bank (Bank Indonesia) revised several regulations involving down payments for the purchase of cars and motorcycles as well as the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for first or more home purchases by Indonesian citizens. Yati Kurniati, Director of Bank Indonesia’s Macroprudential Department, said that the central bank implemented the looser monetary policy in the property and automotive sectors in an effort to boost credit growth, hence boosting the whole economy.

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Hariyadi Sukamdani, Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), expressed his concern about unemployment in Indonesia, particularly unemployment among the younger generation of Indonesians (aged between 15 and 29). Amid slowing economic growth over the past six years, various industries have been cutting employment. With roughly half of the total population below 30 years of age, Indonesia’s demographic bonus can turn into disaster if this potential workforce fails to obtain employment opportunities.

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Although recently having slowed, Indonesia has experienced solid economic growth over the past ten years, with the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) almost doubling between 2001 and 2012. However, robust economic growth also resulted in significant environmental degradation and accelerated depletion of Indonesia’s natural resources. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, World Bank Group Managing Director (and former Indonesian Finance Minister), emphasized that Indonesia needs to shift from a ‘brown’ to a ‘green’ growth model.

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Gambaran ekonomi Indonesia dari sisi pengeluaran sangat didominasi oleh permintaan domestik. Sejak Q1 2010 hingga Q1 2015, rata-rata peran permintaan domestik mencapai 99,5 persen, dengan nilai terendah sebesar 96,8 persen. Sisi positif dari kondisi ini adalah ekonomi Indonesia relatif tahan terhadap guncangan faktor eksternal. Pengalaman menunjukan bahwa saat terjadi krisis subprime mortgage di Amerika dan krisis finansial di Eropa, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia masih relatif tinggi dan konsisten dibandingkan negara-negara lain.

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Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report today (24/03) in which it discusses recent economic developments in Indonesia. According to the report, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate over the two years ahead provided that the Indonesian government continues to implement structural policy reforms. Such reforms - which include the acceleration of infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and enhancing budget implementation - should lead to an improvement of the investment climate.

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In a surprise move, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to lower its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting on Tuesday (17/02). The deposit facility rate (Fasbi) was also lowered by 25 basis points (to 5.50 percent), while the lending facility rate remained steady at 8.00 percent. In a press release the central bank stated that the current policy direction is estimated to moderate the country’s wide current account deficit further, while inflation remains under control.

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In a World Bank blog, World Bank economist Alex Sienaert posted an update on the economy of Indonesia. After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the country’s latest GDP growth figures in early February, two important revisions regarding Indonesia’s GDP statistics have been made: (1) BPS has shifted the basis of the computation from the year 2000 to 2010, and (2) it adopted a significantly updated methodology and presentation of the statistics (updating national accounts from the 1993 System of National Accounts [SNA] to SNA 2008).

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Walaupun pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bergerak lebih lambat pada tahun 2014, terlihat optimisme bahwa pertumbuhan tersebut akan rebound pada tahun 2015 meskipun kondisi ekonomi global belum kondusif (dan membatasi kinerja ekspor Indonesia) serta lingkungan suku bunga Indonesia yang masih tinggi. Bank Indonesia menaikkan BI rate beberapa kali selama satu setengah tahun terakhir dalam upaya untuk mencegah inflasi tinggi (yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga BBM subsidi), menghambat aliran keluar modal menjelang pengetatan moneter AS, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan dan mendukung nilai rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated and Indonesian stocks rose on Wednesday (04/02) on the back of rallying oil prices, a successful bond auction, easing tensions in Europe, and weak US factory orders. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 12,630 per US dollar on Wednesday (04/03). Meanwhile, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) climbed 0.45 percent to 5,315.28 points.

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