26 January 2022 (closed)
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Berita Hari Ini Inflation
To be honest, we were surprised to see deflation in Indonesia in September 2021 as we expected sliding new COVID-19 cases and the government’s relaxation of social and business restrictions (PPKM) on Java and Bali to give a slight boost to demand.
As expected, Indonesia posted very mild inflation in August 2021 amid the country’s (continued) social and business restrictions (PPKM) that disrupt demand across the economic centers on Java and Bali.
While we expected to see some mild deflation in Indonesia amid subdued demand and consumption due to the tighter social and business restrictions on Java and Bali throughout the month of July 2021, there was some modest inflation last month.
While in May 2021 Indonesian inflation accelerated more than we had predicted, in June 2021 we saw the opposite: inflation eased much more than we had anticipated. In fact, Indonesia experienced deflation.
While Indonesian inflation accelerated more than we had predicted amid the festive season in May 2021 (referring to the Idul Fitri celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan month), it remained low overall for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
On Wednesday (05.05.2021) Indonesia Investments released the April 2021 edition of its monthly report. In the report we track important developments - from the perspective of politics, the economy and social matters - that were influential (and impacted on the Indonesian economy) last month.
In line with expectations, Indonesia’s inflation rate remained low despite the start of the Ramadan in the second week of April 2021. While the Ramadan typically gives rise to a big spike in food prices, the COVID-19 crisis has curbed demand in society.
Weak demand across Indonesia, a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, persisted into the second month of 2021 with Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) showing a modest inflation rate of 0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February 2021.
Indonesia’s December 2020 headline inflation accelerated slightly more than we had expected. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) this is particularly caused by rising food prices in the context of Christmas and New Year celebrations.
In line with expectations, October 2020 brought mild inflation to Indonesia, thereby allowing the country’s consumer price index (CPI) to rebound after experiencing an unprecedented three consecutive months of deflation (July-September 2020).
Artikel Terbaru Inflation
It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate ("BI seven-day reverse repo rate") by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75 percent at the two-day policy meeting on 19 and 20 February 2020.
On Monday 1 July 2019 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s latest inflation data. The data show that headline inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy eased to a level of 0.55 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2019, down from 0.68 percent (m/m) in May 2019 when price pressures peaked due to Ramadan and Lebaran celebrations. This period always gives rise to a significant boost in consumption, hence prices of foodstuffs peak. Meanwhile, people also tend to buy new clothes, bags and shoes because they want to look good at these celebrations.
There is concern that the Indonesian government's plan to curb price increases of (non-subsidized) fuels in Indonesia will impact negatively on private investors' enthusiasm to invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry. Earlier this week Arcandra Tahar, Deputy Minister at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, informed that the government wants to regulate prices of fuels in order to keep inflation in check.
The number of people who live in poverty in Indonesia fell by 1.19 million individuals, per September 2017, to 26.58 million, from 27.77 million poor people in March 2017 (Indonesia's Statistics Agency releases poverty data twice per year, covering the situation in the months March and September). This is a significant decline and therefore constitutes a very good development. In relative terms, Indonesia's poverty rate fell 0.52 percent from 10.64 percent to 10.12 percent (over the same period).
Rising commodity prices are good for the Indonesian economy because the country is one of the world's biggest commodity exporters. However, rising commodity prices will also make it more difficult for the government to keep inflation within its target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.
Bank Indonesia is content seeing Indonesia's inflation pace at a rather mild rate of 0.22 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2017. Dody Budi Waluyo, Executive Director of Economic and Monetary Policy at the central bank, said low and stable inflation is a positive asset for the economy as it supports the rupiah exchange rate as well as the investment climate and safeguards people's purchasing power.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) maintained its benchmark interest rate - the 7-day reverse repurchase rate - at 4.75 percent at the policy meeting on 17-18 May 2017, a decision that is in line with analysts' forecasts. Bank Indonesia said the decision is consistent with its efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability "by driving the domestic economic recovery process", while continue to monitor external threats stemming from US policy directions and geopolitical conditions, specifically in the Korea Peninsula, as well as domestic threats stemming from inflationary pressures and ongoing consolidation in the banking and corporate sectors.
It is highly unlikely to see the continuation of deflation in April. Last month (March 2017) Indonesia recorded 0.02 percent of deflation, primarily on the back of easing food prices amid the big harvest season. This harvest season will continue into April and therefore we expect few (to none) inflationary pressures stemming from food products. However, administered price adjustments (specifically another round of higher electricity tariffs in March) will impact of April's inflation figure, while consumer prices may also start to feel the impact of the approaching Ramadan month.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.
