Contrary to the performance of most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.52 percent to 4,959.25 points on Monday (22/06). Other Asian markets were supported by renewed hopes of averting a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone after the debt-ridden country gave new proposals to its creditors in the Eurozone over the past weekend. According to the Greek government these proposals are mutually beneficial. Ahead of the ‘emergency’ meeting today, the euro and European stocks tend to rise heavily.

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its economic growth outlook for Indonesia in 2015. In a meeting with the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that Indonesia’s GDP growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent (y/y) this year. Previously, the central bank projected economic growth in the range of 5.4 to 5.8 percent (y/y). However, after seeing weak growth in the first quarter (4.71 percent y/y), projections had to be revised.

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In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR), Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the economy of Indonesia is currently facing four global risks. These four risks are low international commodity prices, China’s slowing economic expansion, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone and, lastly, further monetary tightening to be conducted by the US Federal Reserve. These issues are not new and have already contributed to slowing economic growth in Indonesia.

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Di laporan terakhir dari Organization for Economic Co-operation and Developmen (OECD) ditekankan bahwa kesetaraan gender dalam pekerjaan harus dipromosikan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka melawan ketidaksetaraan pendapatan dan karenanya mencapai masyarakat yang harmonis serta mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif. Di kebanyakan negara ketidaksetaraan gender tetap merupakan masalah yang menimbulkan keprihatinan. Laporan ini juga menyatakan bahwa pemerintah seharusnya tidak mengacuhkan pentingnya meluaskan akses pekerjaan dan mendorong investasi di pendidikan.

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Setelah kecewa melihat pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) yang hanya 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, para investor merasa kuatir dengan pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia pada sisa tahun ini. Pertumbuhan PDB yang lemah disebabkan oleh lemahnya performa ekspor (akibat lambatnya perekonomian global dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditi), tingkat suku bunga Indonesia yang tinggi (mengurangi daya beli masyarakat dan expansi bisnis oleh perusahaan lokal), dan lambatnya belanja pemerintah.

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Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q1-2015 dicatat 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Meskipun telah diprediksi bahwa angka pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia akan jatuh di bawah batas 5%, perlambatan ini lebih buruk dari dugaan awal. Suryamin, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), menyatakan pada awal hari ini (05/05) bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat mencapai level terendah selama lima tahun akibat lemahnya ekspor (hasil dari berkurangnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di pasar ekspor) dan rendahnya harga minyak mentah dunia.

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On 19 April 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an update on Bank Indonesia’s interest rate policy, the performance of the rupiah, the March trade balance, updates on coal, palm oil, cement and car sales, GDP growth forecast, alcohol in Indonesia, and more.

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Pada tanggal 29 Maret 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan newsletter edisi terbarunya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan setiap minggu kepada para pelanggan kami, memuat berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang dilaporkan di website kami dalam tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik membahas isu ekonomi seperti analisis performa rupiah, prediksi pertumbuhan perekonomian oleh institusi-institusi internasional, rencana pemerintah untuk merevisi pajak ekspor minyak sawit dan melonggarkan larangan ekspor bahan mineral mentah, dan banyak lagi.

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On 8 February 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an analysis of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2014 and a growth projection for 2015, an update on the biodiesel subsidy program, car sales growth in 2015, and much more.

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The central bank of Indonesia kept the BI seven-day reverse repo rate (7-day RR Rate) at 5.25 percent after its two-day August policy meeting (18-19 august 2016). At this policy meeting Bank Indonesia adopted the 7-day RR Rate as the nation's new benchmark monetary tool, replacing the BI rate that failed to influence markets significantly: despite the BI Rate having been cut from 7.50 percent to 6.50 percent so far this year, Indonesia's lending rates did not drop accordingly.

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A better-than-expected GDP growth figure in the second quarter of 2016 should not be a reason for Indonesia to become complacent. On the contrary, efforts to boost economic growth need to be continued. One of the keys to unlock accelerated economic growth is to optimize spending of government funds at the regional level. Alarmingly, some IDR 214.7 trillion (approx. USD $16.5 billion) of central government funds that are allocated to regional governments in the 2016 state budget are left untouched at bank accounts.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's inflation to reach slightly below 1 percent month-to-month (m/m) in July 2016. According to central bank surveys, Indonesia's inflation accelerated in the first and second week of July by 1.18 percent (m/m) and 1.25 percent (m/m), respectively. Juda Agung, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said inflation tends to peak ahead of - and during - the Idul Fitri holiday (4-8 July) but is set to ease in the third and fourth week.

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Bank Central Asia (BCA), the largest lender by market value and assets in Indonesia, is expected to benefit from Indonesia's tax amnesty program and improving economic growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy. CIMB Securities projects a 10 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase in loan growth in full-year 2016. However, this growth projection is slightly below BCA's loan growth realization one year earlier when it reached 12 percent (y/y). This slowing growth is attributed to lower demand for working capital credit and investment credit.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Tuesday (19/07) that it cut its forecast for global economic growth in both 2016 and 2017 by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent (y/y) and 3.4 percent (y/y), respectively. The downward revision is the result of a "substantial increase in economic, political, institutional uncertainty" due to the exit of Britain from the European Union (the so-called "Brexit"). In fact, if there were no Brexit, the IMF would have made an upward revision to its 2017 economic growth outlook, according to a statement made on the IMF website.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said economic growth in developing Asia is relatively untouched by the recent "Brexit" vote (Britain's decision to exit the European Union). The ADB only cut its outlook for economic growth in developing Asia by 0.1 percentage point to 5.6 percent (y/y) in 2016. Within a two-week period Asia's emerging market stocks and currencies pared the heavy losses that occurred around 23 June 2016 when - amid heightened concern about the global economy - a flight to safety emerged.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its projection for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y), slightly below its previous forecast in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank decided to trim its projection for gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year due to sluggish global economic growth, low commodity prices, and Indonesia's slightly disappointing Q1-2016 GDP growth figure at 4.92 percent (y/y).

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Although Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 was below analysts' estimates, most analysts agree that the nation's economic growth in the second quarter of the year could reach 5 percent (y/y), supported by domestic consumption and capital inflows. In Q1-2016 Indonesia's economic growth climbed at a pace of 4.92 percent (y/y) - accelerating from the 4.73 percent (y/y) GDP growth pace in the same quarter one year earlier - but significantly below estimates of most analysts. For example, Bank Indonesia expected GDP growth around 5.1 - 5.2 percent (y/y).

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Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.

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In 2015 Unilever Indonesia's net profit declined 1.2 percent (y/y) to IDR 5.85 trillion (approx. USD $443 million) due to weakened purchasing power of Indonesian consumers amid the economic slowdown. Last year Indonesia's GDP growth touched the six-year low of 4.79 percent (y/y). This year, however, economic growth is estimated to accelerate beyond the 5.0 percent (y/y) mark. Unilever Indonesia is a leading consumer goods producer in Indonesia that is mainly focused on home & personal care products as well as foods & refreshment products. How about its performance in 2016?

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