A discount war ahead of Lebaran, the traditional celebration that follows after the holy fasting month of Ramadan is finished and when many Indonesians go back to their place of origin for a few days, is expected to spur car sales in July. It is a normal phenomenon that car sales increase ahead of Lebaran because an amount of people need a new car to carry them back to their places of birth. But this year the increase in car sales is expected to exceed sales figures in previous years as wholesalers use discount actions to reduce their car stockpiles.

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Standard Chartered Bank expects economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to remain robust at 6.2%. The bank believes this is a realistic assumption amid global economic uncertainty and higher subsidized fuel prices which limits people's purchasing power. The greatest pillar of support for Indonesia's GDP growth is domestic consumption, and which is supported by Indonesia's demographic composition as the country not only has a large population (over 240 million people), but also a young one (half of the population is below thirty years of age).

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In its latest report, titled Asian Development Outlook Supplement, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in both 2013 and 2014 for developing Asia due to weak demand from industrial countries and slowing economic growth in China. The ADB revised down its growth forecast for developing Asia by 0.3 percent to 6.3 percent in 2013 and 6.4 percent in 2014. The Manila-based development bank also expects commodity prices to fall sharper than previously estimated. 

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After the World Bank signaled slowing economic growth in Indonesia, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley also detects problems in Southeast Asia's largest economy. According to Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging-market strategist for Morgan Stanley, Indonesia’s stock market is the most vulnerable stock market in Southeast Asia in terms of sudden capital outflows. Morgan Stanley downgraded Indonesia's equities to underweight from equal weight and labeled the country as "a relatively over-owned country".

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On 2 July 2013, the World Bank released its July edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly. The report, titled Adjusting to Pressures, touches on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy and places these in a longer term and global context. It regularly updates the outlook for the country’s economy and social welfare, and provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy topics, as well as analyses of medium term development challenges.

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Unemployment in Indonesia is expected to fall to 5.7 percent of Indonesia's total labor force at the end of 2013. In 2014, the figure may further decline to 5.1 percent if global and domestic conditions are conducive and if the government can provide sufficient support through job creation. These forecasts were presented by Muhaimin Iskandar, Minister of Manpower and Transmigration. The minister mentioned that each one percent in GDP growth will create more than 350,000 jobs.

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Indonesia's government expects expenditure on subsidized fuels in 2014 to amount between IDR 190-220 trillion (USD $19.2 to 22.2 billion). A high official at Indonesia's Finance Ministry, Robert Pakpahan, said that the assumption is based on a subsidized fuel quota of 48 to 51 million kiloliters and an Indonesian crude oil price of USD $100-115 per barel. Despite having raised the price of subsidized gasoline by 44 percent last week, it means that both volume quota and total expenditure on fuel subsidies will rise in 2014.

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According to Bambang Brodjonegoro, current head of the Fiscal Agency (a department under the wings of Indonesia's Finance Ministry), Indonesia's economy will grow 6.0 percent in the second quarter of 2013. This growth rate is lower than originally forecast due to the impact of a global unstable environment. Economic growth in Q2-2013 is also likely to be below the Q1-2013 result of 6.02 percent. A few weeks ago, the government of Indonesia had already revised down its GDP forecast for 2013 from 6.8 percent to 6.3 percent.

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Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service stated in a report released on Monday (24/06) that it is positive about the impact of the increase in price of subsidized fuel in Indonesia. Through this measure, the budget deficit of the Indonesian government is estimated to remain within 3 percent of GDP (the maximum threshold that is set by the government). Last Saturday (22/06), the price of gasoline was raised by 44 percent to IDR 6,000 and the price of diesel by 22 percent to IDR 5,500 despite widespread protests across the country.

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After a long plenary session on Monday (17/06), Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) and the government have agreed to the revised 2013 State Budget (APBN-P). The revision was needed as original macroeconomic assumptions began to fall out of tune with reality. Due to global and domestic conditions a number of assumptions needed to revised down. Most controversial decision that was taken is the increase in price of subsidized fuel by 44 percent to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.66) per liter.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 will not meet the government's target as has been set in the revised State Budget (APNB-P). Last month, both government and parliament of Indonesia agreed on a revised GDP growth assumption of 6.3 percent. However, Bank Indonesia believes that, due to slowing domestic consumption and investments in the current global economic context, the growth is more likely to fall between 5.8 and 6.2 percent.

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Weakening American and European stock indices on Tuesday (02/07), as investors mostly refrained from trading ahead of Wednesday when a number of important US economic data are released, caused negative market sentiments in Asia today (03/07). Moreover, the market responded negative towards the World Bank's July report in which the outlook for economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 was cut to 5.9 percent (from 6.2 percent). Lastly, a gap at 4,620 - 4,644 still needed to be closed.

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The World Bank has revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to 5.9 percent from its original estimate of 6.2 percent. Similarly, the institution has altered its forecast for economic growth in 2014 from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent. The revised figures were published in July's edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled 'Adjusting to Pressures'. The World Bank's forecast is also in sharp contrast with the GDP assumption of the Indonesian government, which puts economic growth in 2013 at 6.3 percent.

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Last week, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) rebounded 303 points to 4,818.90. After weeks of foreign outflows, Indonesia finally experienced capital inflows again during the last two days of the week. For example, on Friday (28/06) foreigners bought IDR 960 billion (USD $97.0 million) more Indonesian shares than they sold. However, considering the full week, foreigners still recorded net selling amounting to IDR 1.02 trillion (USD $103 million). Do these last couple of days tell us that the bearish market is over? Lets take a closer look.

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After several years of significant foreign capital inflows into Indonesia, a sharp contrast has been visible in recent weeks. Global panic that followed in the days after Ben Bernanke announced that the Federal Reserve intends to withdraw its quantitative easing program in 2014 (if economic recovery of the USA continues), hit Indonesia hard. It triggered a massive capital outflow from the country's stock exchange (IDX) as well as from government securities (Surat Berharga Negara, or SBN).

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Similar to the Jakarta Great Sale event, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) trades its stocks at low prices as foreign investors have sold large parts of their Indonesian stock assets in recent weeks. Last week, foreign investors sold IDR 4.9 trillion (about USD $492.4 million), meaning that this year's accumulated foreign net buying has evaporated. Will these sales continue? Yes, I think so. Foreigners have invested about IDR 144 trillion in Indonesia's capital markets between 2007 and Q1-2013. As such, there is still plenty to sell.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) moved wildly last week. During the first two days of the week, the index fell to 4,609.95 points, which is considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. However, on the last trading day of the week (14/06), a 3.32 percent recovery occurred. Generally, it were domestic market participants that supported the IHSG. Foreign market participants continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios. Total foreign selling totaled IDR 9 trillion (USD $910.4 million) last week.

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Data released by a department of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's budget deficit amounted to IDR 25.9 trillion (USD $2.64 billion) on 31 May 2013. This figure is equivalent to 16.9 percent of the target that is set in the 2013 State Budget (IDR 153.3 trillion). The IDR 25.9 trillion deficit translates to 0.27 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). The maximum amount of deficit - as stipulated by the State Budget Law of 2013 - that is allowed to be maintained is equivalent to 1.65 percent of GDP.

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The slowing pace of investments has made the Indonesian government decide to revise down its forecast for economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. Minister of Finance, M. Chatib Basri, believes that GDP growth will not exceed the six percent threshold in Q2-2013. He explained that there are a number of factors that refrain the government from setting a higher growth assumption. These factors include ailing exports, non-optimal government spending, and diminishing gross fixed capital investment.

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Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday (30/05). Particularly Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) was negatively influenced by Wednesday's falling stock indices in Europe and the USA. In this context, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) was hit as well and fell 1.37 percent to 5,129.65 points. Moreover, the continuing decline of the IDR rupiah makes market participants less enthusiastic to purchase Indonesian stocks. Foreigners were also anxious to sell part of their stock portfolios.

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