A discount war ahead of Lebaran, the traditional celebration that follows after the holy fasting month of Ramadan is finished and when many Indonesians go back to their place of origin for a few days, is expected to spur car sales in July. It is a normal phenomenon that car sales increase ahead of Lebaran because an amount of people need a new car to carry them back to their places of birth. But this year the increase in car sales is expected to exceed sales figures in previous years as wholesalers use discount actions to reduce their car stockpiles.

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Standard Chartered Bank expects economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to remain robust at 6.2%. The bank believes this is a realistic assumption amid global economic uncertainty and higher subsidized fuel prices which limits people's purchasing power. The greatest pillar of support for Indonesia's GDP growth is domestic consumption, and which is supported by Indonesia's demographic composition as the country not only has a large population (over 240 million people), but also a young one (half of the population is below thirty years of age).

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In its latest report, titled Asian Development Outlook Supplement, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in both 2013 and 2014 for developing Asia due to weak demand from industrial countries and slowing economic growth in China. The ADB revised down its growth forecast for developing Asia by 0.3 percent to 6.3 percent in 2013 and 6.4 percent in 2014. The Manila-based development bank also expects commodity prices to fall sharper than previously estimated. 

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After the World Bank signaled slowing economic growth in Indonesia, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley also detects problems in Southeast Asia's largest economy. According to Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging-market strategist for Morgan Stanley, Indonesia’s stock market is the most vulnerable stock market in Southeast Asia in terms of sudden capital outflows. Morgan Stanley downgraded Indonesia's equities to underweight from equal weight and labeled the country as "a relatively over-owned country".

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On 2 July 2013, the World Bank released its July edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly. The report, titled Adjusting to Pressures, touches on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy and places these in a longer term and global context. It regularly updates the outlook for the country’s economy and social welfare, and provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy topics, as well as analyses of medium term development challenges.

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Unemployment in Indonesia is expected to fall to 5.7 percent of Indonesia's total labor force at the end of 2013. In 2014, the figure may further decline to 5.1 percent if global and domestic conditions are conducive and if the government can provide sufficient support through job creation. These forecasts were presented by Muhaimin Iskandar, Minister of Manpower and Transmigration. The minister mentioned that each one percent in GDP growth will create more than 350,000 jobs.

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Indonesia's government expects expenditure on subsidized fuels in 2014 to amount between IDR 190-220 trillion (USD $19.2 to 22.2 billion). A high official at Indonesia's Finance Ministry, Robert Pakpahan, said that the assumption is based on a subsidized fuel quota of 48 to 51 million kiloliters and an Indonesian crude oil price of USD $100-115 per barel. Despite having raised the price of subsidized gasoline by 44 percent last week, it means that both volume quota and total expenditure on fuel subsidies will rise in 2014.

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According to Bambang Brodjonegoro, current head of the Fiscal Agency (a department under the wings of Indonesia's Finance Ministry), Indonesia's economy will grow 6.0 percent in the second quarter of 2013. This growth rate is lower than originally forecast due to the impact of a global unstable environment. Economic growth in Q2-2013 is also likely to be below the Q1-2013 result of 6.02 percent. A few weeks ago, the government of Indonesia had already revised down its GDP forecast for 2013 from 6.8 percent to 6.3 percent.

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Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service stated in a report released on Monday (24/06) that it is positive about the impact of the increase in price of subsidized fuel in Indonesia. Through this measure, the budget deficit of the Indonesian government is estimated to remain within 3 percent of GDP (the maximum threshold that is set by the government). Last Saturday (22/06), the price of gasoline was raised by 44 percent to IDR 6,000 and the price of diesel by 22 percent to IDR 5,500 despite widespread protests across the country.

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After a long plenary session on Monday (17/06), Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) and the government have agreed to the revised 2013 State Budget (APBN-P). The revision was needed as original macroeconomic assumptions began to fall out of tune with reality. Due to global and domestic conditions a number of assumptions needed to revised down. Most controversial decision that was taken is the increase in price of subsidized fuel by 44 percent to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.66) per liter.

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At a special occasion at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged local banks to become more aggressive in terms of lending as credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector only reached IDR 4,782 trillion (approx. USD $349 billion) in 2017, hence growing by only a modest 8.3 percent year-on-year (y/y), thus unable to provide an optimal boost to domestic economic growth.

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Rating and Investment Information, Inc (R&I), a Japan-based provider of credit ratings, investment appraisal and information services, announced that it has upgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating from BBB- (positive outlook) to BBB (stable outlook) per 7 March 2018. Last December, Fitch Ratings had already upgraded Indonesia's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings to BBB (stable outlook), from BBB- previously.

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In full-year 2017 the Indonesian economy expanded 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y). Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday morning (05/02) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.19 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2017. These figures show a mixed picture.

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In the World Bank's January 2018 edition of its Global Economic Prospect (GEP) report, released earlier this week, Indonesia's economic growth is considered stable at 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the 2018-2020 period. Although compared to emerging peers in the Asian region, a 5.3 percent growth pace is not too impressive, the positive message from the GEP report is that - contrary to many emerging Asian peers - Indonesia is not expected to see sliding economic growth in the years ahead.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday (16/11). The seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate) was kept at 4.25 percent for a second straight month. Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it will revise its outlook for Indonesia's economic growth in full-year 2017 after the Q3-2017 GDP growth figure - released at the start of the week - was well below expectations. Previously, Bank Indonesia set its economic growth target for Indonesia in 2017 in the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent year-on-year (y/y).

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On Monday (06/11) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia's third quarter GDP data, important information that is closely followed by investors and analysts. While most analysts expect to see accelerated economic growth in the third quarter, others remain skeptical as Indonesia's gross domestic product was disappointing in the first two quarters of the year amid bleak domestic consumption.

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The Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors agreed to hold the BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate at 4.25 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility and lending facility rates at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent, respectively, effective per 20 October 2017. The decision was in line with efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability, while stimulating the domestic economic recovery.

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In its latest report, the World Bank stated that Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals are solid and have been strengthening amid the central government's eagerness to implement critical structural reforms, while investment growth rose to the highest levels since the last quarter of 2015 (mainly investment in buildings and structures).

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Growth remains strong across most of developing Asia as a result of the broad-based recovery in global trade, robust expansion in major industrial economies, and improved prospects for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This will combine to push growth in developing Asia for 2017 and 2018 above previous projections, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

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