Coal production in Indonesia fell 21 percent (y/y) to 97 million tons in the first quarter of 2015 as the country’s coal miners cut production volumes amid low coal prices. Some smaller Indonesian miners may even have stopped production altogether as production costs exceed coal prices. According to data from Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, 79 million tons of coal were exported in the first quarter, while the remaining 18 million tons were absorbed by the domestic market.

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The coal mining industry continued its downward trend in 2014 amid weak global coal demand and an oversupply on the market. The benchmark Newcastle port thermal coal price fell 29 percent (y/y) over 2014 and declined a further 8 percent in the first quarter of 2015. As a result, Indonesian coal miners reported mostly weak 2014 corporate earnings. However, Indonesian miners are concerned that two new regulations will cause more problems. The Indonesian government plans to raise coal royalties and introduce mandatory letters of credit.

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Pendapatan perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) secara umum menurun pada 2014. Ini menjadi bukti bahwa industri batubara, yang merupakan bisnis yang menguntungkan pada tahun 2000an (hingga 2011), masih mengalami perlambatan karena masalah-masalah ekonomi global. Ekonomi global yang bergerak lambat menyebabkan permintaan yang rendah bagi komoditi-komoditi seperti batubara dan minyak sawit mentah (dua penghasil devisa penting di Indonesia). Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) khususnya mengkhawatirkan.

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Ada berita buruk bagi perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batu bara di Indonesia. Pemerintah Indonesia berencana untuk menaikkan royalti batubara pada Maret 2015 dalam upaya untuk meningkatkan pendapatan dari sektor sumberdaya alam. Selain menaikkan royalti, Pemerintah juga akan melaksanakan sejumlah tindakan untuk meningkatkan pengawasan di sektor pertambangan batu bara (karena pengapalan batubara secara ilegal dan penghindaran pajak telah menjadi masalah besar). Rencana untuk meningkatkan hampir 100% royalti batubara diduga akan memberikan dampak sangat negatif bagi para penambang kecil dan perusahaan-perusahaan baru yang berfokus memproduksi batubara kalori rendah.

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Bob Kamandanu, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), advises the government of Indonesia to cut the country’s coal production by about 50 million tons and cap coal exports at 300 million tons in 2015 in an effort to boost global coal prices which are currently touching an eight-year low amid the sluggish global economy (particularly weakening coal demand from China) in combination with a coal oversupply. Indonesia is the world’s leading exporter of thermal coal which is primarily used in electricity generation.

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Indonesian coal production reached 213 million tons in the first half of 2014, a 7.6 percentage point growth from the same period in the previous year (198 million tons), as coal miners have been boosting coal output amid sluggish international coal prices. Approximately 75 percent of this output (158 million tons) was exported abroad. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal producer and exporter. The country’s coal primarily consists of the medium-quality type (between 5100 and 6100 cal/gram) and the low-quality type (below 5100 cal/gram).

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Indonesian state-owned electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) said that Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - is expected to nearly double domestic consumption of thermal coal over the next eight years in an attempt to meet the nation's growing electricity demand. Moreover, coal, of which the country has huge reserves at its disposal, is regarded a better fuel source in electricity generation compared to expensive diesel. At present, many power stations in Indonesia are still diesel-powered.

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Coal production in Indonesia stood at approximately 110 metric tons in the first quarter of 2014, thus little changed from the production volume in the same period last year. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that - despite the decline in coal prices - the first quarter result implies that a quarter of this year's production target, which is set at 421 million tons, has been achieved. Indonesia is one of the world's top producers and exporters of coal. This fossil fuel accounts for about 85 percent of the country's mining revenues.

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PTT Plc, a Thailand-based energy company which conducts coal mining activities in Sebuku, Jambayan and Laung (all on the island of Kalimantan), is planning to list its subsidiary, Sakari Resources, on the Indonesia Stock Exchange through an initial public offering (IPO). PTT Plc has been active in Indonesia's mining sector since 2008 when it acquired a 94 percent stake in (Singapore-listed) Sakari Resources. After the acquisition, Sakari Resources delisted from the Singapore Stock Exchange.

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Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Bob Kamandanu expects that Indonesia's coal production will decline about 5 percent to 400 million tons in 2014 after the government asked miners to scale back production rates in order to safeguard future domestic supplies as the country needs sufficient energy resources for its future energy supply. Amid low domestic demand, the government asked Indonesian coal mining companies to limit the country's total coal output at 397 million metric tons.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.

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The Standard Chartered Bank expects Indonesia's economy to expand 5.8 percent in 2014, followed by a 6 percentage growth in 2015 as an improving global economy has a positive effect on emerging economies, including Indonesia. The world economy is estimated to grow between 3.2 and 3.5 percent this year and expected to accelerate to 3.8 percent in 2015. David Mann, the regional Head of Research at the Standard Chartered Bank in Asia, said that Indonesia's economic performance in 2013 was negatively influenced by external factors.

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