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On 4 May 2023 Indonesia Investments released the April 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report discusses a range of subjects related to the economy, politics and social matters that we found were relevant in April 2023.
On 6 June 2022 Indonesia Investments released its latest monthly report. As usual, our report offers independent, objective, and in-depth analyses of key economic, political and social topics that were in the news in Indonesia over the past month.
Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, may need to scrap its plan to build a USD $500 million smelter in Bahodopi (South Sulawesi) as its strategic Chinese partner, for now, backed away from the project due to falling nickel prices. Initially both sides agreed to form a joint venture for the establishment of the smelter.
The nickel price is expected to remain under pressure up to (at least) the second half of 2018 due to the structural oversupply in the world market. So far this year the nickel price has fallen 9.38 percent to USD $9,080 per ton (London Metal Exchange). Analysts of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say nickel - used in stainless steel - is the worst-performing metal so far this year.
Although Indonesian nickel miner Vale Indonesia saw its sales rise by 32.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $143.95 million in the first quarter of 2017 supported by the 24.1 percent (y/y) growth in the (average) nickel matte price in Q1-2017, the company is pessimistic about the direction of the nickel price in the remainder of 2017 as inventory levels remain high on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Eight commodity prices have been rising steadily so far this year on higher global demand. This rebound is expected to continue into 2017 although it will require a long time to touch the levels that we saw in 2011. The World Bank noted in a report released on 4 October 2016 that the prices of eight commodities - coal, crude oil, crude palm oil, copper, iron ore, tin, nickel and gold - have been rebounding so far this year. Rising commodity prices will support economic growth of Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest economy is one of the world's largest commodity exporters.
Indonesian miners may be allowed to resume bauxite exports after a government official signalled that the Indonesian government is looking at relaxing its (raw) mineral export ban. This ban, implemented in January 2014, was introduced in an effort to boost domestic processing capacity, generate more revenue (by adding value to its mineral products) and enhance employment opportunities in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. However, amid the lack of domestic smelting capacity, the export ban has led to a plunge of exports.
Official data show that in 2014 China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, imported the lowest amount of nickel ore since 2010. Apart from slowing economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy (China’s economic expansion having eased to 7.4 percent year-on-year in 2014), falling nickel ore imports are also caused by Indonesia’s ban on exports of unprocessed minerals (implemented in January 2014) and monsoon rains in the Philippines (limiting production and seaborne trade).
State-controlled mining company Aneka Tambang (Antam) feels the negative impact of the Indonesian government’s new mining law (Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining) which replaced its 1967 predecessor. This new mining law is controversial because it contains a number of provisions that are negative for foreign investment in Indonesia’s mining sector. However, domestic players also feel the impact because of the mineral ore export ban, part of the mining law, which was implemented on 12 January 2014.
Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of PT Vale Indonesia Tbk. Vale Indonesia, a subsidiary of the world's second-largest mining company headquartered in Brazil, is Indonesia's largest nickel producer. The company explores, mines, processes and produces nickel in matte, an intermediate product, from lateritic ores at its mining and processing facilities near Sorowako on the island of Sulawesi. At end 2013, Vale Indonesia had proven mineral reserves amounting to 94.2 million metric tons (Mt) and probable mineral reserves of 33.3 million Mt.
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Shareholders of Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, approved the proposal to allocate USD $6.7 million to general reserve and to distribute final dividend of USD $0.00252 per share. The dividend - equivalent to USD $25 million in aggregate from Vale Indonesia's net profit - will be paid on 31 May 2013. Indonesian shareholders will be paid in Indonesian rupiah based on the Central Bank's mid rate on 17 May 2013. Non-Indonesian shareholders will be paid in US dollar.
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