The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) may reach a new record high level this week after market favourite Joko Widodo - popularly known as Jokowi - was officially announced the winner of the 2014 presidential election by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on Tuesday (22/07). Not unimportantly, the final decision was not accompanied by any riots or social unrest Jakarta or other parts of the Archipelago, thus giving investors some more peace of mind regarding the stability of Indonesian assets.

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The performance of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks has been impacted by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s withdrawal from the General Elections Commission’s electoral process on Tuesday (22/07). Although the Commission (KPU) has not publicly announced the outcome of the 2014 presidential election yet, Subianto’s response is a clear sign that rival Joko Widodo - as expected - has won the election. Subianto claims that the KPU is corrupt and will challenge the outcome in the Constitutional Court.

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Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will end his second and final five-year term in October 2014, announced to meet both presidential candidates (Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo) in the country’s State Palace on Sunday (20/07). In this meeting, president Yudhoyono will emphasize the importance of a peaceful and orderly transition to the next government. Currently, it remains unknown who of the two candidates won the presidential election (held on 9 July 2014). Due to the tight race, chances of social unrest increase.

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The four largest privately-held Indonesian conglomerates that have assets listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are the Astra Group, Salim Group, Lippo Group, and Sinar Mas Group. Combined, all listed companies controlled by these four groups account for 17.50 percent of total market capitalization on the IDX (total market capitalization on the IDX was IDR 5,027.27 trillion or USD $430 billion on 15 July 2014). Currently, the largest listed firm on the IDX is Astra International, the ‘vehicle’ of the Astra Group.

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After the companies Sitara Propertindo and Bank Dinar Indonesia were listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) on Friday (11/07), the total number of listed Indonesian companies has now reached 502. This year so far, there have been 18 Indonesian companies that conducted an initial public offering (IPO) on the IDX. Ito Warsito, General Director of the IDX, said that he is optimistic that this year’s target of 30 newly listed Indonesian companies will be achieved by the year-end.

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After a trading week that was characterized by high gains in the stock and financial markets on optimism that Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will become the next president of Indonesia, both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell today (11/07). This seems an obvious sign that the euphoria about a Jokowi win has waned and investors are looking again to the true economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. By 13:00 pm local Jakarta time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.66 percent.

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Although not all quick count scores indicate a Joko Widodo (Jokowi) win, Indonesia’s stock and financial markets have gained considerably on Thursday (10/07) - one day after the 2014 Indonesian presidential election - on speculation that the General Elections Commission (KPU) will declare Jokowi the winner of the election on 22 July 2014. Out a total of 12 quick counts (mentioned below), eight showed a Jokowi win. Importantly, these seven quick counts include the authoritative agencies that traditionally have been highly accurate.

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The recently launched Investor33 Index has outperformed both the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), which contains all stocks that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and the LQ45 Index, a stock index which contains 45 Indonesian listed companies that fulfil certain criteria. In the first six months of 2014, the Investor33 Index climbed 16.36 percent, whereas the IHSG increased 14.14 percent and the LQ45 Index 15.68 percent.

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Bank Dinar Indonesia announced to set its share price at IDR 110 per share at the initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The company hopes to raise IDR 55 billion (USD $4.6 million) by offering 500 million new shares, or 22.22 percent of its enlarged capital, to the public. Approximately 75 percent of the proceeds will be used for credit disbursement expansion, while the remainder will be used to finance the establishment of nine new offices. Underwriter of the IPO is Andalan Artha Advisindo Sekuritas.

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Batavia Prosperindo Internasional, an Indonesian business and management consultancy services firm, set its share price in the range of IDR 450 to IDR 500 (roughly USD $0.04) for its initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (this price range is in line with the company’s price to earnings ratio at between 8.2 to 9.2 times). Through this corporate action the company will release 29.18 percent of its enlarged capital. General Director Rudi Setiadi said that the company intends to offer 150 million shares to the public.

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On the last day of the week (07/03), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) fell 0.04 percent to 4,685.89 points as market participants engaged in profit taking (cashing in on the recent strong performance of the IHSG) amid resurging concerns about the situation in Ukraine. On the other hand, losses were limited as investors are upbeat about the improved outlook for the global economy. US data were good as the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in three months.

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Rising indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (04/03) impacted positively on Asian indices the following day, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG). As the political tensions in Ukraine have somewhat eased since Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not seeking to escalate the conflict, investors were again eager to invest in emerging market stocks; foreign investors were net buyers. Today's performance of the IHSG left a gap at 4,602-4,621 points.

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Yesterday (26/02) strengthening Asian stock indices were unable to push the benchmark index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index/IHSG) into the green zone. Today (Thursday 27 February), we witnessed the contrary: the IHSG climbed 0.80 percent to 4,568.94 points, while Asian indices were mixed. Indices in China, the Sensex and the Nikkei fell, while others rose. Those that rose responded positively toward the release of higher sales of new US single-family homes. However, the conflict in the Ukraine limited their growth.

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When there are few positive sentiments that can push Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, also known as IHSG) into higher territory there is always the risk of downreversal due to profit taking. Particularly as the IHSG has shown a steady rising trend in recent weeks. The IHSG's decline on Monday (24/02) was influenced by falling Asian indices after a sell off of property and construction stocks emerged. The continued appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was also unable to provide enough support for the index.

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Foreign confidence in Indonesia's capital markets seems to be growing further after foreign investors continued to expand their stock portfolios last week. In February 2014 (up to Friday 21/02), foreigners purchased IDR 36.0 trillion (USD $3.1 billion) worth of stocks and sold IDR 29.3 trillion (USD $2.5 billion), resulting in net foreign buying of 6.7 trillion (USD $570.2 million) in the first three weeks of February 2014. When foreign net buying of January 2014 is added, total net foreign buying reached IDR 9.0 trillion (USD $766.0 million).

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Despite being - technically - overbought, the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index also known as the IHSG) continued its upward trend on Wednesday (19/02). Moreover, as market sentiments have turned less positive due to data from Europe and the USA (causing European and American indices to slow down) as well as a depreciating rupiah exchange rate, there was a sincere risk of a weakening IHSG today. However, contrary to our expectations, the IHSG rose 0.80 percent to 4,592.65 points.

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As we have explained before, a significant amount of market participants will engage in profit taking after a day (or in this case a number of days) of gain. Mixed sentiments originating from the Asian continent, particularly Japan and China, as well as the depreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate contributed to the slight gain of Indonesia's benchmark index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG). The IHSG rose 0.02 percent to 4,556.19 points on Tuesday (18/02).

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, also known as IHSG) continued its upward rally on Monday (17/02) even though it had concerned us that the index almost touched its 'overbought' level. Especially as the index posted limited gain by the end of last week, it made us unsure about its performance on Monday. And while there are several factors that caused positive market sentiments, we still warn for potential weakening of the index due to profit taking. On Monday (17/02), the IHSG rose 1.05% to 4,555.37 points.

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The weakening Dow Jones Index on Wednesday (12/02) caused negative market sentiments in Asia the following day. Most Asian indices, including Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), were down. Not even the announcement that Bank Indonesia decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent was able to push the IHSG back in the green zone. Investors probably already anticipated the central bank's decision as it was in line with the market's expectation.

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Positive market sentiments stemming from Wall Street pushed Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) further up on Wednesday (12/02). Even though technical indicators (such as the bollinger band) suggest that the majority of Indonesian stocks are close to the overbought area, it did not prevent investors from stock trading. The appreciating rupiah exchange rate, rising Asian indices and positive openings in Europe all contributed to the IHSG's 0.58 percent gain to 4,496.29 points.

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