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Berita Hari Ini Federal Reserve
Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, left its benchmark interest unchanged at the final (regular) policy meeting of 2017. The BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate was kept at 4.25 percent on Thursday (14/12). Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility were kept at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent, respectively (effective per 15 December 2017).
Approaching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting - scheduled for 12-13 December 2017 - the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate remained stable on Monday (11/12). By 15:00 pm local Jakarta time, the rupiah had strengthened 0.01 percent to IDR 13,548 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). However, several analysts warn that the rupiah is likely to depreciate if the US Federal Reserve will indeed raise its benchmark interest rate.
As we are in the middle of the fourth quarter of 2017, we detect rising pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate amid broad US dollar strength. However, the decision of Indonesia's central bank to leave its interest rate regime unchanged at the November meeting managed to give some support to the rupiah (as well as Indonesia's improving balance of payments, current account deficit, and capital and financial account).
The Indonesian rupiah appreciated slightly - by 0.09 percent - to IDR 13,464 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) on Thursday (05/10), bucking the trend in Asia where most emerging market currencies weakened amid US dollar strength as US economic data showed that the US service sector grew at its fastest pace in 12 years in September 2017.
The Indonesian rupiah is continuing to depreciate on Monday (02/10). By 15:00 pm local Jakarta time the currency had weakened 0.71 percent to IDR 13,568 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Not only the rupiah, but all (emerging market) currencies are sliding in Asia on renewed US dollar strength.
Indonesian shares and the rupiah strengthened considerably on the last trading day of the week. On Friday (29/09) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged 1.02 percent to 5,900.85 points, outperforming all other national benchmark indices in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.32 percent to IDR 13,472 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
The US dollar is advancing on Thursday (28/09) amid strong US dollar demand on the back of US President Donald Trump's tax reform program announcement and looming further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve before the year-end. Rising US treasury yields naturally cause US dollar strength, hence leading to weakening emerging market currencies, with especially the Indonesian rupiah being affected significantly today.
Investors are again in search of safe haven assets on Wednesday (27/09), hence most emerging market currencies, including Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate, are weakening against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.28 percent to IDR 13,412 per US dollar by 14:45 am local Jakarta time. Yesterday, the rupiah had already weakened 0.37 percent against the greenback.
On Wednesday (06/09) Asian stocks are following the example of Wall Street's slide overnight. The benchmark MSCI Asia was down 0.66 percent by 10:15 am local Jakarta time on Wednesday morning. This weak performance is attributed to persistent concerns about North Korea's provocative behavior, while any non-violent sanctions against North Korea will unlikely encourage the nation to stop its nuclear program.
Asian shares are under pressure on Friday morning (07/07) due to declines on Wall Street overnight. These declines were caused by the ADP jobs report, released on Thursday (06/07), that missed estimates as well as by rising tensions surrounding North Korea's ballistic missile tests and a tech sell-off. Meanwhile, global sovereign debt yields rose on expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is moving closer toward unwinding its massive monetary stimulus.
Artikel Terbaru Federal Reserve
Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be maintained at 7.50 percent at Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting on Tuesday 8 April 2014. Despite Indonesia's moderating inflation rate (7.32 percent year on year in March 2014) and the February 2014 trade surplus of USD $785 million, the BI rate may be left unchanged in order to support the further easing of Indonesia's current account deficit and to offset the impact of the possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016.
At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.
By the end of Friday's trading day (28/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.75 percent to IDR 11,361 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. At the end of March 2014, the rupiah is still the best-performing Asian currency this year, outperforming 24 emerging-market currencies that are tracked by Bloomberg. Since 31 December 2013, the rupiah appreciated nearly seven percent against the US dollar as an easing current account deficit and slowing inflation triggered capital inflows into Southeast Asia's largest economy.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 11,447 per US dollar on Thursday (27/03) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency's strong performance in February and the first half of March, supported by Indonesia's easing current account deficit and inflation, has met resistance due to global concern about the aggressive US Federal Reserve monetary tightening (winding down its quantitative easing program by another chunk of USD $10 billion as well as possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016).
Today (18/03), the World Bank released the March 2014 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled Investment in Flux. The report discusses key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these developments in a longer-term and global context. Secondly, it provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, as well as analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. Click here for further information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its impressive rebound in 2014, supported by Indonesia's improving economic fundamentals as well as increased political certainty due to the nomination of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) as the main opposition party's (PDI-P) presidential candidate. As such, the 'Jokowi effect' managed to offset negative market sentiments brought on by the (disputed) referendum in Crimea that showed that 97 percent of voters support a split from Ukraine. This intensified political tensions between the West and Russia.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the USD $430 million trade deficit that was recorded in January 2014 is a normal result taking into account the implementation of the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals (which reduces exports of materials such as copper and nickel) and seasonal trends as exports are always lower in January than in December due the end of winter peak demand for raw materials and ongoing contractual negotiations at the beginning of each year.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated (0.15 percent) to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Thursday (27/02), 15:00 local Jakarta time, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo stated yesterday to expect the currency to stabilize near current levels in line with its economic fundamentals ahead of looming further Federal Reserve tapering. Analysts estimate that Indonesia's trade balance might deteriorate in January 2014 as the impact of the mineral-ore export ban kicks in.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is optimistic that the country's currency will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2014. Executive Director at the Economic and Monetary Policy Department of Bank Indonesia Juda Agung said that there are two factors that impact positively on the performance of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate: the improved global economy and strengthening domestic economic fundamentals. However, Agung declined to estimate the value of the rupiah by the end of Q1-2014.
Positive market sentiments stemming from Wall Street pushed Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) further up on Wednesday (12/02). Even though technical indicators (such as the bollinger band) suggest that the majority of Indonesian stocks are close to the overbought area, it did not prevent investors from stock trading. The appreciating rupiah exchange rate, rising Asian indices and positive openings in Europe all contributed to the IHSG's 0.58 percent gain to 4,496.29 points.
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