The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) said cement sales in Indonesia grew by 7.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in full-year 2017. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of ASI, said cement sales rose in all regions across the country with the exception of Kalimantan and Sulawesi. As usual, the biggest cement consumer in 2017 was Java. This island accounted for 57 percent of total cement consumption in Indonesia in 2017, followed by Sumatra with 21 percent.

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Indonesia's state-controlled cement manufacturer Semen Indonesia experienced a 8.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase in domestic cement sales to 2.77 million tons in October 2017. Meanwhile, the company's cement exports jumped a whopping 131.2 percent (y/y) in the same month. However, these exports (145,271 tons of cement in October 2017) come from a low base.

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Demand for cement in Indonesia is rising ahead of the year-end. Growing cement demand is attributed to the speeding up of construction of several national strategic infrastructure projects. Widodo Santoso, General Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said cement consumption in Indonesia rose 12.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.76 million tons in October 2017.

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Cement consumption continued to improve in Indonesia in August 2017 on the back of rising demand from Java and the eastern region of Indonesia. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesia's cement consumption rose 9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.47 million tons in August 2017.

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Over the past two years the cement oversupply in Indonesia has become increasingly excessive. Indonesia's total annual installed cement production capacity has now risen to 106.3 million tons, while domestic demand may not exceed 65 million tons in 2017. Moreover, production capacity will rise further this year as Semen Indonesia will open two new plants later this year.

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Indonesia's largest cement producer Semen Indonesia, which controls about 41 percent of the domestic cement market, targets to have raised its annual installed cement production capacity to 37 million tons by September 2017. Johan Samudra, Director of Production and Business Strategy at Semen Indonesia, said the company's production capacity currently stands at 32-33 million tons.

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Indonesian cement producers urge the government to protect the nation's existing cement manufacturers that have invested heavily in expanding production capacity in recent years but are plagued by the combination of weak domestic cement consumption and Indonesia's rising overall cement production capacity. Both factors are the reason behind the oversupply of cement in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Indonesia's leading cement manufacturer Semen Indonesia created a joint venture (JV) together with its subsidiary Semen Indonesia Beton. This JV - named Semen Indonesia Industri Building - is active in the building materials sector. Semen Indonesia controls 99 percent of the shares in this new entity, while Semen Indonesia Beton owns the remaining 1 percent.

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In May 2017 Indonesia's national cement consumption extended the rise that started in the preceding month supported by a recovery in the property sector and infrastructure development projects. Based on data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), cement demand grew 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.47 million tons in May. Meanwhile, cement sales rose 4.1 percent (y/y) to 25.26 million tons in the January-May 2017 period.

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The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has high hopes for Indonesia's cement exports this year. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the ASI, said he wants the nation's exports grow to the range of 2 - 3 million tons in 2017, up from 1.5 million tons in the preceding year (implying nearly 100 percent year-on-year growth). By the year 2019 the association targets to see 5 million tons of cement exports shipped abroad from Indonesia.

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Despite the challenging conditions, Indonesian cement producer Cemindo Gemilang decided to offer 2.71 billion shares, equivalent to 15.0 percent of the company’s total shares, to the public through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). With the IPO price set at the range of 600-800 per share, the cement producer eyes to collect around IDR 1.89 trillion (approx. USD $133 million) through this corporate move.

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Between the years 2011 and 2013 Indonesia’s cement industry seemed to be a goldmine. Double-digit growth in annual domestic cement sales – supported by strong growth in the country’s property sector, particularly on the islands of Java and Sumatra – attracted new foreign investment in cement production facilities, while established cement producers in the Archipelago invested in expansion of their cement production facilities.

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Semen Indonesia, the largest cement producer in Indonesia, announced in November 2018 that it has signed a conditional sales & purchase agreement with LafargeHolcim Ltd to acquire an 80.6 percent stake in Holcim Indonesia, the third-biggest cement producer in Indonesia.

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Cement sales were good in January 2018 for Indonesian cement manufacturers, growth that is attributed to rising cement demand on the back of the government-led infrastructure development program, particularly the construction of toll roads. Indonesia's cement consumption rose 9.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.68 million tons in January 2018.

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Over the past five years Indonesia's annual cement production capacity surged to above 100 million tons, while domestic cement consumption has difficulty to reach beyond 65 million tons (and Indonesia exports relatively few cement). The subsequent oversupply condition puts significant pressure on cement prices. So, what are the strategies of Indonesian cement producers in 2018?

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Cement consumption in Indonesia grew 5.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 41.1 million tons in the January-August 2017 period (compared to the same period one year earlier). This can be labelled a rebound compared to bleak growth of 1.8 percent (y/y) and 1.6 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. This year Indonesian cement demand could in fact reach 64 million tons.

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While domestic cement demand remains bleak, Indonesia's cement producers managed to raise their level of production capacity utilization due to a surge in exports. However, export growth will only slightly improve the structural oversupply situation in Indonesia's cement market. With installed annual production capacity estimated at 103.8 million tons of cement, nearly 40 million tons of capacity remains unused.

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Although the Indonesian government has been eager to improve the nation's investment climate in a bid to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and thus boost economic growth of Indonesia, it is widely known that conditions in Indonesia's investment climate remain somewhat troublesome, reflected by the nation's mediocre ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index 2017. Here it ranks 91 out of 190 countries across the globe.

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For Indonesian cement producers it is vital to maintain their market share amid ongoing difficult times. With Indonesia's total installed annual cement production capacity now being around 100 million tons, while domestic demand is only expected to reach 65 million in 2017, cement players are facing weak prices amid a big oversupply, while foreign demand for Indonesian cement is yet to grow. Meanwhile, due to the arrival of various new cement players in Indonesia in recent years, competition for market share has become increasingly fierce.

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Cement sales in Indonesia weakened 5.4 percent month-on-month (m/m) - or 5.3 percent on an annual basis - to 5.7 million tons in November 2016. However, in the first 11 months of 2016 Indonesian cement sales reached a total of 56.5 million tons, up 2.8 percent (y/y) from domestic cement sales in the same period one year earlier. This modest growth is supported by government-led infrastructure development as well as smelter and power plant development. The housing market, however, remained flat. Also intense rainfall managed to curtail the progress of projects. Below, a snapshot of our latest report.

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