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Rubber prices rose on Wednesday morning (26/07) as the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar. The price of rubber (December 2017 delivery, the most-active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, or Tocom), had gained 1.04 percent, or 2.2 points, to 213.70 yen per kilogram (kg) by 10:26 am local Jakarta time, after opening sideways at the level of 211.50 yen per kg. Yesterday, rubber prices climbed 1.05 percent.
The price of rubber rebounded on Tuesday morning (25/07), in line with the strengthening of crude oil prices. The rubber price (December 2017 delivery, the most-active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange), had risen 2.05 percent to 213.60 yen per kilogram (kg) by 10:05 am local Jakarta time, while earlier this morning, rubber prices had in fact fallen 0.62 percent directly after the opening of trade.
Rubber prices fell sharply on Monday morning (24/07), in line with the strengthening Japanese yen. The price of rubber (December 2017 delivery, the most active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange), had slid 2.33 percent to 209.50 yen per kilogram (kg) at 10:28 am local Jakarta time.
According to a statement of Indonesia's Finance Ministry, Indonesia raised a total of 100 billion yen (approx. USD $901 million) from the issuance of three, five and seven-year Samurai bonds (yen-denominated bonds) on Wednesday (31/05). The issuance, Indonesia's first public sale of Samurai bonds, was led by Mizuho, Nomura and SMBC Nikko.
In the post-Brexit reality, stocks have been performing well, worldwide, with the exception of the week of 4 July when markets were hit by profit-taking amid heightened concern about the world's economic fundamentals. Apart from that week (when Indonesian markets were closed for a public holiday) stocks have been rallying, fueled by optimism about monetary stimulus from key central banks. So far this week, gains in worldwide stocks reappeared, fed by a positive (but not too positive) US jobs report and the prospect of more stimulus from central banks.
After the impressive rally last week (fed by hopes of more stimulus measures from central banks), concern about Brexit (Britain's decision to exit the European Union) is now impacting significantly on assets worldwide. With growing fears about instability in the European Union (EU) investors have become "more realistic" and seek safe haven assets, such as government bonds, Japan's yen, the US dollar and gold. A closer look at currencies and yields signals what is going on in investors' minds. Meanwhile, commodity prices - led by crude oil - extended their falls.
Indonesian assets are under pressure on Friday (24/06) due to the exiting of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU). After votes of yesterday's referendum were counted the so-called "Brexit"is a reality. Nearly 52 percent of the 16.1 million voters chose to depart from the EU. Shortly after the news UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced he is to step down in October. Meanwhile, global financial markets are in deep red territory as investors are in search of safe haven assets such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and gold.
After last week's successful issuance of euro-denominated bonds, the government of Indonesia has now conducted a successful issuance of yen-denominated bonds (known as samurai bonds). Indonesia's Finance Ministry said it raised 100 billion yen (approx. USD $942 million) on Wednesday (15/06) from a private placement of samurai bonds to institutional investors in Japan. Lead underwriters of the bond issuance were Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co Ltd, Mizuho Securities Co Ltd, and SMBC Nikko Securities Inc.
It was a bad start of the new trading week. Stocks in Asia were deep in the red due to risk aversion, falling the most in four weeks amid concern about the "Brexit" referendum, uncertainty before this week's central bank meetings in the USA and Japan, falling crude oil prices, and the worst mass shooting in modern US history. Indonesia was among the affected markets; the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.84 percent to 4,807.23 on Monday (13/06), while the rupiah only depreciated slightly to IDR 13,298 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
The Indonesian rupiah experienced a volatile day on Thursday (02/06), touching a four-month low in the morning after Indonesia failed to get investment grade status (yet) from global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P). However, at the end of the trading day the rupiah had appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 13,643 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar today amid uncertainty about an imminent Fed Funds Rate hike.
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After Wall Street turned back into the green zone on Tuesday (13/08) and was accompanied by continued rising stock indices in Europe, it provided good support for Asian stock indices on Wednesday (14/08), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Indonesian mining commodities and plantation stocks fell but these losses were offset by rising big cap stocks (particularly finance stocks) and speculation that Indonesia's central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 6.50 percent.
Rising Asian stock indices from the start of the week have supported Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) to follow suit on Tuesday (13/08). Despite mixed markets in the United States and Europe, the IHSG grew 1.19 percent to 4,652.40 points. Japan's Nikkei index, which weakened seriously after the country's disappointing Q2 GDP result, rebounded and had a positive impact on the IHSG. Lastly, positive European openings made sure the IHSG would stay in the green zone.
Despite being up at the start of the trading day, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was under pressure for the remainder of Wednesday (31/07) due to investors' appetite for profit taking. Indonesian company reports (Semester I-2013) were mixed and, in combination with other mixed Asian indices, it made many investors wait and see for the meeting of the Federal Reserve first. Asian indices suffered because of Malaysia's and India's downgrade by Fitch Ratings. This triggered speculation whether Indonesia's outlook will be cut as well.
Apparently the stormy and dark clouds above the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are still present. Most foreign investors continued to sell their Indonesian assets, resulting in another day of losses for the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG). Not even clarity about the price hike of subsidized fuel could ease investors' minds (fuel prices were increased last Saturday after months of speculation). For the last two weeks negative sentiments have coloured the stock exchange and profit taking has been the result.
Despite mixed Asian stock indices because of negative news from China and Japan, certainty about the increase in the price of Indonesia’s subsidized fuel after the plenary meeting of the House of Representatives (DPR) on Monday (17/06) formed a pillar of support for Indonesia’s main stock index (IHSG) on Tuesday’s trading day (18/06). Investors took the opportunity to buy stocks, particularly Indonesia’s big cap stocks, after these had experienced significant falls last week due to profit taking actions amid an uncertain market.
Despite weakening stock indices in the United States on Friday (14/06), most Asian indices were up on Monday (17/06) and impacted positively on the main index of Indonesia (IHSG). On the other hand, market participants are still waiting for the outcome of the plenary session of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) regarding the approval of the increase in the price of subsidized fuel. The market is speculating that the price increase will be approved even though a number of political parties oppose the plan.
On Thursday (13/06), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) could not continue the recovery it had shown on the previous day. The index fell 1.92% to 4,607.66 points amid international and domestic concerns. Investors are worried about central banks' policies and the World Bank's downgrade of global economic growth in 2013. On the domestic side, negative sentiments were brought on by the fuel subsidy issue (and its inflationary impact), the weakening rupiah, the BI rate hike, falling foreign exchange reserves, and the trade deficit.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was mixed on Tuesday's trading day (04/06) as negative market sentiments were still felt after yesterday's tumble (inflicted by Indonesia's April trade deficit). Foreigners continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios causing the index to fall below the psychological boundary of 5,000 points, which also meant that it went into oversold territory. But the rise of the Yen, thus supporting Asian indices, in combination with positive openings in Europe made the IHSG rise in the end.
The upward movement of American and European stock indices on Tuesday (28/05) made a good impact on Indonesia's main index (IHSG) on Wednesday (29/05). Despite Asian markets being mixed and the Hang Seng Index (usually the reference point for Asian indices) falling, the IHSG succeeded in surpassing the next psychological boundary at 5,200 points. Overall, foreign investors recorded a net sell but it was offset by a net buy in a number of big caps: Perusahaan Gas Negara, Jasa Marga, Indo Tambangraya Megah and United Tractors.
The weak stock indices in Europe and USA at the end of last week had a negative impact on stock indices in Asia on Monday (27/05/13), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Investors rushed to reduce their stock portfolios, which resulted in an 1.36 percent fall to 5,085.14 points. At the end of last week, the IHSG had formed a green candlestick but today there were no continued positive signals as the market lacked positive sentiments. But a number of rising Asian indices and the positive openings of European stock indices managed to support the IHSG a bit.
