Sebagai salah satu produsen biji kopi unggulan di dunia, Indonesia mungkin akan mendapat keuntungan dari perubahan iklim yang menyebabkan pergeseran produksi kopi dunia ke arah Timur selama beberapa dekade mendatang. Menurut laporan baru yang dilaksanakan International Center for Tropical Agriculture yang berbasis di Kolombia, suplai global biji arabika terancam karena kenaikan suhu 2 derajat Celsius dan juga perubahan pola hujan. Brazil, produsen kopi unggulan di dunia, akan sangat dipengaruhi oleh perubahan iklim.

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Indonesia’s coffee production may hit a record high in the 2015-2016 harvest season according to a Bloomberg survey. The survey suggests that Indonesian coffee output is to rise 18 percent (y/y) to 650,000 metric tons from 550,000 tons in the previous season. Reason for a good coffee harvest is favorable weather (rain) having boosted yields. Indonesia is the world’s third-largest producer and exporter of robusta. Also in other parts of the world coffee production is estimated to increase, hence potentially placing pressure on prices.

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The Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries (AEKI) expects coffee bean production in Indonesia to decline by about 11 percent to 650,000-670,000 tons in 2014, from 740,000 tons in the previous year. This decline is actually less severe than initially expected as weather conditions have improved in the main coffee bean growing regions on Sumatra. Meanwhile, output in 2015 is projected at 700,000 tons. Indonesia is currently the world’s third-largest coffee bean producer, after Brazil and Vietnam.

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The Consulate General of Indonesia in Guangzhou (China) said Indonesia's coffee exports to China reached USD $34.1 million in the January-September 2017 period, hence Indonesia now ranks second in terms of biggest coffee exporters to China. Vietnam ranks first, by a distance, with a coffee export value of USD $368.8 million in the same period.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Indonesia's coffee exports to fall in the 2016/2017 season due to rising domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia and low productivity. In the January-May 2016 period coffee exports from Indonesia fell 33.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 117,000 metric tons from 177,000 metric tons in the same period one year earlier. Indonesia's main coffee export destination markets are the USA, European Union (EU), and Japan.

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Brazil has been in the spotlight as recent developments in this country influence global prices of coffee and sugar. There are currently two factors at play in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee and sugar supplier. First, ongoing drought has sharply pushed up the price of coffee. Secondly, the market is hopeful that reform-minded candidate Aécio Neves wins the Brazilian presidential election in the second voting round. This has given Brazil’s currency (real) a boost against the US dollar, and thus impacted on prices of coffee and sugar.

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