The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that its foreign exchanges reserves had risen to USD $107.0 billion by the end of May 2014, up from USD $105.6 billion at the end of the previous month. This increase primarily stemmed from government oil and gas export earnings as well as an influx of foreign portfolio capital into Southeast Asia's largest economy, which reflects the positive perception of international investors with regard to the economic fundamentals of Indonesia.

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The Indian rupee depreciated 0.4 percent to 58.7150 per US dollar on Monday (26/05), the most in a month on speculation that India's central bank intervened to deliberately weaken the currency after it had gained 2.8 percent against the US dollar this month (becoming the best performing Asian currency). The rupee gained due to optimism about the new government's ability to boost the economy (which has slowed down considerably in recent years). However, the central bank expects that a too strong rupee will hurt the country's exports.

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The foreign exchange reserves at the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) increased about USD $3 billion to USD $105.6 billion at the end of April 2014, the highest level in 15 months, particularly due to export earnings of government-owned oil and gas exporters. Bank Indonesia said that the current position of forex reserves is equivalent to 6.1 months of imports or 5.9 months of imports and servicing external debt (well above the international standard of three months of imports). Today, the central bank's Board of Governors Meeting is held.

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.23 percent to IDR 11,603 per US dollar on Thursday (24/04). The currency's performance was particularly influenced by weak new US single-family homes sales. These sales fell more than expected and hit a five-month low in February 2014, implying that there is continued weakness in the US housing market. Meanwhile, US durable goods orders and US initial jobless claims, which will be released later today, are expected to be weak too.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its recent weakening trend on Wednesday (23/04). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's currency had depreciated 1.12 percent to IDR 11,650 per US dollar at 12:45 local Jakarta time, its weakest level in two months. Reasons for this poor performance are weak Chinese manufacturing data, renewed concerns about Indonesia's wide current account deficit and ongoing political uncertainty after the fragmented outcome of Indonesia's 2014 parliamentary election.

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Indonesia’s official foreign exchange reserve assets stood at USD $102.6 billion as of the end of March 2014, a slight decline from the level of USD $102.7 billion in the previous month. The decline was mainly due to government payments in the context of its maturing global bond in March 2014. At this level, reserve assets can adequately cover 5.9 months of imports or 5.7 months of imports as  well as servicing of government external debt repayment, well above the international standards of reserves adequacy at three months of imports.

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Most emerging currencies in Asia appreciated against the US dollar on Monday (07/04) as the 192,000 jobs that were added by US employers in March 2014 are believed to be too low to trigger an early interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The new jobs data did not meet expectation, particularly after the strong US private jobs report. Meanwhile, trading in Asia was subdued as China's financial markets were closed (due to the Qingming Festival also known as Tomb Sweeping Day).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate moved rather sideways on Friday (04/04). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency appreciated 0.06 percent to IDR 11,316 per US dollar. Most emerging Asian currencies tended to depreciate against the greenback as the market is waiting for US unemployment data, released later today. Overall, market participants remain confident in Indonesia's economic fundamentals as inflation eased to 7.32 percent (yoy) in March, while the country posted a trade surplus of USD $785 million in February.

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As had been confirmed by Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, earlier this week, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves rose 2.1 percent to USD $102.74 billion at the end of February 2014, particularly due to strong capital inflows. According to Martowardojo, capital inflows in the first two months of 2014 exceed net capital inflows throughout 2013. Bank Indonesia regards the current foreign exchange reserves sufficient to underpin external sector resilience and maintain sustainable economic growth in Indonesia looking ahead.

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.15 percent to IDR 11,647 per US dollar on Wednesday (26/02). All through the day, the currency traded within a fairly narrow trading range, possibly due to market participants' wait and see attitude ahead of the release of important US economic indicators. As the US economy is improving and the US unemployment rate is declining, the Federal Reserve may wind down its quantitative easing program in a more aggressive manner soon.

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The release of Indonesia's April deflation figure (0.10%) and orderly May Day demonstrations provided a good environment for investors to continue purchasing Indonesian stocks (despite uncertainty about Indonesia's subsidized fuel policy. Moreover, positive Asian stock indices - in combination with positive European openings on Wednesday - made the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) rise to a new record level of 5,060.92 points on Wednesday (01/05/13), a 0.53 percent gain.

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Rising American stock indices on Wednesday provided solid support for stock indices around Asia the following day, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Amid this global positivity, market players were eager to add stocks to their portfolios. News from Japan, China and the Indonesian central bank's announcement to maintain its low benchmark interest rate were well-received, particularly by domestic market players. It made the IHSG rise to 4,924.26, a 0.96 percent gain.

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On Monday, the Dow Jones Index gained as corporate results of Q1-2013 are estimated to be good. This subsequently had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Tuesday, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Moreover, positive news from both Australia and China were well-received as well as the higher metal price (reflected by Hong Kong's rising Hang Seng Index). Amid this positivity, investors took the opportunity to enlarge their stock portfolios.

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On Thursday 4 April 2013, market players were hoping that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) would climb beyond the psychological level of 5,000. However, the presence of negative market sentiments - and the overbought condition of the IHSG - were used as reasons to engage in profit taking. It consequently pushed down Indonesia's main financial market indicator to the level of 4,922.61, an 1.18 percent fall compared to Wednesday's trading day.

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Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.

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Although the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was moving in the red zone for a while during today's trading day, in the end it recorded a small gain. Most other Asian stock indices, except for Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai, went up as well. High expectations about continued IHSG-growth, strong corporate results of companies, and continued robust foreign demand for Indonesian stocks pushed the index up.

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Recent concerns about a global currency war, which is considered to threaten worldwide economic and financial stability, has prompted Indonesia's Economic minister Hatta Rajasa to ensure that Indonesia will not participate in such a tactic. The Central Bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has in fact been selling US dollars to support the IDR rupiah, which has been under growing pressure lately due to Indonesia's current account deficit and the risk of capital outflows.

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Rising Asian stock markets, particularly a strong Hang Seng (Hong Kong) that opened today after the Chinese new year celebrations, had a positive impact on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). As had happened in previous years, the IHSG has the tendency to gain ahead of Valentine's day. Today, market participants received their special Valentine's gift: a new record-high IHSG level of 4601.95, although in the end it had to close a bit lower.

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After rallying for three days to try to end on a new resistance level, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally had to retreat. As we suspected, the index weakened after its record high. Moreover, American and European indices were weak on Thursday, thus influencing the performance of the IHSG on Friday. Lastly, a number of Asian companies reported weak corporate reports that subsequently impacted on Asian stock indices, including the IHSG.

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