More and more signs point toward a strengthening property sector in Indonesia. In the third quarter of 2016 the property sector has seen more activity, a trend that is expected to continue into the fourth quarter and in 2017. Stanley Ang, Chief Marketing Officer at urban development company Lippo Cikarang, said this development is partly supported by the government's tax amnesty program and the lower interest rate environment in Indonesia as well as Bank Indonesia's decision to ease the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio.

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Indonesian assets performed very well on Monday (03/10). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged 1.85 percent to 5,463.92 points, while the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.46 percent to IDR 12,983 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Overall, assets are improving worldwide due to easing concerns about the Deutsche Bank case, stabilizing oil prices, and China's stabilizing manufacturing activity. Indonesian assets, however, performed best supported by the government's successful tax amnesty program.

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On 2 October 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy-related topics such as Indonesia's tax amnesty program, the pharmaceutical industry, GDP growth, the current account balance, competitiveness, urban planning, renewable energy, and more.

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The first phase of Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on Friday (30/09). Contrary to earlier forecasts the first phase of the program can be labeled a success. The Indonesian government collected IDR 97.2 trillion (approx. USD $7.5 billion) in additional tax revenue, or 58.9 percent of the nine-month program's full target (IDR 165 trillion). Indonesia's tax amnesty program, which runs up to 31 March 2017, is divided in three phases. In the first phase the government offered the most attractive tax tariffs to taxpayers who declare and/or repatriate their previously unreported assets.

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Contrary to our earlier predictions, Indonesia's tax amnesty program has been on a roll in September 2016. The program is designed to boost the government's tax revenue by offering tax evaders attractive rates to come clean and declare their previously undeclared assets (whether stashed at home or abroad in the so-called tax havens). Those who join the program can also repatriate offshore assets into Indonesia, into specifically prepared investment instruments where the funds need to stay for at least three years.

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Indonesia's rupiah currency is performing remarkably well today. By 13:20 pm local Jakarta time the rupiah had appreciated 0.75 percent to IDR 12,943 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). There are several factors that are pushing the rupiah in a stronger position. Enny Sri Hartati, economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), informed that capital inflows are the result of the government's tax amnesty program and rising foreign direct investment (FDI). Meanwhile, there is the impact of the US presidential debate.

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Realization of non-oil & gas tax revenue reached IDR 705 trillion (approx. USD $54 billion) up to 26 September 2016, or 53.5 percent of the full-year non-oil & gas revenue target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (IDR 1,318.9 trillion). Ken Dwijugiasteadi, the Finance Ministry’s Taxation Director General, said bleak non-oil & gas tax revenue realization is partly the result of lower income tax and value-added tax realization generated from imports. Both Indonesia's import and export performance have been declining for nearly two years.

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On 25 September 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy-related topics such as Indonesia's tax amnesty program, Google's presence in Indonesia, Bank Indonesia's interest rates, the oil & gas sector, the digital economy, IPOs, and more.

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According to reports in Indonesian media, President Joko Widodo is willing to extend the deadline for the first phase of the government's tax amnesty program. Originally, this first phase, which sets the most attractive tax rates for those who decide to declare previously undeclared assets and - if desired - repatriate their offshore assets into Indonesia, was designed to end on 30 September 2016. Rosan Roslani, Chairman of Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia), said Widodo is willing to extend the deadline on request of Indonesia's business community.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was at a court hearing in Jakarta on Tuesday (20/09) to defend the legality of the nation's tax amnesty program. In July 2016 legal activists, gathered within the One Justice Foundation (Yayasan Satu Keadilan) and Indonesian People's Struggle Union (Serikat Perjuangan Rakyat Indonesia), filed for a judicial review at the Constitutional Court claiming that the program turns money laundering into a legal practice, protects criminals, teaches Indonesian citizens not to pay taxes, and constitutes an unfair program from a social point of view.

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Indonesia's Tax Office now has more power to check whether people and companies indeed pay taxes. Last week the Indonesian government basically scrapped the existence of banking data secrecy by introducing a new regulation that gives the nation's tax authorities access to information on accounts held at financial institutions, including bank accounts. The new regulation should contribute to a more transparent financial system and boost the government's (much-need) tax revenue realization. However, Indonesian parliament still needs to approve the new regulation.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on 31 March 2017, so now it is time to take a look at the results. Although Indonesia's amnesty program has been labelled as one of the most - if not the most - successful amnesty programs ever around the globe (in terms of asset declarations), there is plenty of room for disappointment. Based on data from Indonesia's Tax Office, less than one million Indonesians joined the program. For many nations this would be a great number. For Indonesia this number means tax evasion remains rampant, implying the government misses out on much-needed tax revenue.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program will end soon. The nine-month program was designed to finish on 31 March 2017. Although the program has become the world's most successful tax amnesty program, it will fail to solve Indonesia's tax revenue collection problems. And with tax revenue being the largest source for public spending capacity, low tax compliance in Southeast Asia's largest economy obstructs more rapid development of the Indonesian economy.

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The tax amnesty program of Indonesia is yet to have an impact on Indonesia's property sector. Earlier, analysts and stakeholders expected part of the asset repatriations into Indonesia (under the government's tax amnesty program) to flow to property, either property ownership or property development projects. Although tax declarations and additional government revenue under the amnesty program were a success, the repatriation of assets that were stashed overseas has been weak. However, some stakeholders are optimistic that repatriated funds will flow to Indonesia's residential property in Q2-2017.

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Indonesia's budget deficit in 2016 is estimated to have reached 2.46 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), below the government's forecast of 2.7 percent of GDP and at a safe distance from the legal cap of 3.0 percent of GDP that is stipulated by Indonesian law. This is a positive matter that is supported by modestly growing tax revenue. In full-year 2016 tax revenue realization reached IDR 1,105.2 trillion (approx. USD $83 billion), only 81.6 percent of the target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (APBN-P 2016) but slightly higher than tax revenue realization in the preceding year.

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After the Constitutional Court had already confirmed earlier this week that Indonesia's tax amnesty program is not in violation of the nation's constitution, there occurred a second reason for celebration related to the tax amnesty program: the total of declared assets up to Wednesday (14/12) had surpassed the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion (approx. USD $301 billion), about 3.5 months before the end of the program. Despite this success there remains reason for pessimism.

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Throughout the year 2016 the economy of Indonesia was plagued by major challenges stemming from abroad. In fact, most countries around the globe have been busy to soften the impact of low global economic growth on the local economy. In the case of Indonesia, authorities have unveiled a series of 14 economic policy packages aimed at improving investment, trade and purchasing power. Although it remains difficult to implement these packages in full force (due to the low quality of human resources at the local government level or conflicts of interests), they have helped to push Indonesia's economic growth into higher gear.

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In the October 2016 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) report, titled "Easing Pressures", the World Bank is positive about Indonesia's improved fiscal management and its impact on the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The Washington-based institution projects Indonesia's economic expansion at 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016. However, it emphasizes that external risks (sluggish global economic growth and global market volatility) continue to pose a threat.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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At its latest monthly policy meeting the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate regime unchanged with the benchmark BI rate at 6.50 percent (this month the bank is set to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate - reverse repo - as the new benchmark rate). Bank Indonesia's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was a surprise move given that the nation's inflation is low, the rupiah is strengthening, but overall economic growth has remained sluggish. This context would actually justify a moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

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