Sumita, Chairman of the Lampung (South Sumatra) branch of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries (AEKI), responded saying that Indonesia’s lower coffee production and export in the April 2014 - March 2015 period are a normal phenomenon as the harvest time began in May and lasts until October. In the couple of months before May, exporters have been exporting part of their coffee stockpiles. Sumita expects to see Indonesian coffee exports and production surge in the next six months.

Fresh beans from current coffee harvests in Indonesia are being absorbed mostly by the domestic market. London-based ICO expects Indonesia’s harvest to increase in the April 2015 - March 2016 period from the same period despite the threat of the El Nino cycle. Earlier this month we reported that it is increasingly being believed that the El Nino weather phenomenon will hit Indonesia in the next couple of months and various reports surfaced that unusual dry weather has already impacted negatively on harvests of agricultural commodities in parts of Southeast Asia.

The AEKI estimates that Indonesian coffee output will reach 600,000 to 650,000 tons in the 2015 season, lower than the institution’s earlier forecast of 650,000-700,000 tons and below production realization last year of 711,513 tons. Other analysts or industry groups expect that the El Nino phenomenon will reduce AEKI’s forecast by about 50,000 tons.

Further Reading:

Weather in Indonesia: El Nino to Impact Agricultural Commodities in 2015?
Global Demand for Indonesian Luwak Coffee (Kopi Luwak) Declined
Climate Change to Enhance Indonesia’s Role in Global Coffee Industry?