Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 248,852 confirmed infections, 9,677 deaths (21 September 2020)
21 September 2020 (closed)
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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released its Q1-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) data for Indonesia on Tuesday (5 May 2020). According to the agency, the Indonesian economy expanded by 2.97 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2020. The result is well below forecasts, and considering the real impact of the coronavirus crisis (COVID-19) on the Indonesian economy is to occur in the second quarter, we expect to see a deep red number in Q2-2020 (possibly extending into the following quarter).
Starting in Q1-2020 the world has been captivated by the COVID-19 outbreak. Across the globe, governments have imposed restrictions on social behavior and business in an effort to safeguard people's health. However, at the same time, these restrictions have far-reaching consequences for the economy.
After some denial at first (which caused a slow response from the Indonesian government), Indonesia too was confirmed to have COVID-19 patients (with the first two cases reported on 2 March 2020).
Starting from the second week of March 2020 the economy of Indonesia started to become disrupted as people were encouraged to stay at home (and if possible work from home). Considering - in the case of Indonesia - the economy only started experiencing hiccups from the second week of March 2020, we expected to see a Q1-2020 GDP figure of around 4 percent (y/y). However, the latest data now show a much bigger drop (to 2.97 percent y/y in Q1-2020).
Considering the real impact of the COVID-19 crisis it to be felt by the Indonesian economy in Q2-2020 (as restriction have been intensified while various regional governments imposed large-scale social restrictions, or PSBBs), we expect to see heavily contracting GDP in the second quarter. However, considering we are in uncharted waters it is very difficult to set a reliable forecast. We would not be surprised, however, if the Q2 figure will be around minus 5.0 percent (y/y).
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