Starting in Q1-2020 the world has been captivated by the COVID-19 outbreak. Across the globe, governments have imposed restrictions on social behavior and business in an effort to safeguard people's health. However, at the same time, these restrictions have far-reaching consequences for the economy.

After some denial at first (which caused a slow response from the Indonesian government), Indonesia too was confirmed to have COVID-19 patients (with the first two cases reported on 2 March 2020).

Starting from the second week of March 2020 the economy of Indonesia started to become disrupted as people were encouraged to stay at home (and if possible work from home). Considering - in the case of Indonesia - the economy only started experiencing hiccups from the second week of March 2020, we expected to see a Q1-2020 GDP figure of around 4 percent (y/y). However, the latest data now show a much bigger drop (to 2.97 percent y/y in Q1-2020).

Considering the real impact of the COVID-19 crisis it to be felt by the Indonesian economy in Q2-2020 (as restriction have been intensified while various regional governments imposed large-scale social restrictions, or PSBBs), we expect to see heavily contracting GDP in the second quarter. However, considering we are in uncharted waters it is very difficult to set a reliable forecast. We would not be surprised, however, if the Q2 figure will be around minus 5.0 percent (y/y).

In depth analyses of the Indonesian economy can be found in our monthly report


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